The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split slate: There are nine-game DraftKings and eight-game FanDuel main slates at 1:05 p.m. and a three-game afternoon slate at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Sunday’s slates are loaded with elite pitching talent: Four starters have salaries of at least $10,100 on FanDuel:
To start 2018, reigning NL Cy Young winner Max Scherzer has picked up right where he left off in 2017, posting an average Plus/Minus of +15.08 on FanDuel through his first seven starts. He appears to be in another excellent spot today against the Philadelphia Phillies, who are currently implied for a slate-low 2.9 runs. He’s also a strong -192 favorite, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically been elite options (per our Trends tool):
Where Scherzer really stands out is his strikeout potential. The projected Phillies lineup has struck out in 28.2% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Scherzer’s K Prediction of 11.0 is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin. Factoring a K Prediction of at least 8.0 into the trend above increases the average Plus/Minus to +5.27, and Scherzer has personally averaged a Plus/Minus of +9.74 in the 23 instances in which he has matched this trend.
Still, there are two concerns with Scherzer. The first is the weather, with the current forecast calling for a 40% chance of precipitation at game time. The second is his recent Statcast data. He’s allowed an average distance of 243 feet over his past two starts, which represents an increase of +29 feet when compared to his 12-month average. It has yet to affect him from a fantasy perspective, but it could indicate that he’s due for some regression. FantasyLabs has a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days, and Scherzer’s mark of -98 is the worst on the slate. That number isn’t as important for a pitcher who strikes out as many batters as Scherzer, but it’s a concern nonetheless. He should still be the highest-owned pitcher on the main slate.
Unfortunately, Chris Sale is available only on the DraftKings main slate, as FanDuel has chosen to omit the 3:05 Red Sox-Rangers game. His -230 moneyline odds make him the largest favorite on the slate, even though his opponent implied total of 3.4 runs ranks just fourth. Like Scherzer, he also possesses a ton of strikeout upside: The projected Rangers lineup has posted a 28.7% strikeout rate against left-handers over the past 12 months. Sale has averaged a K/9 of 12.76 over the same time frame, giving him a K Prediction of 9.6 on today’s slate.
One possible reason for the slightly higher than expected opponent implied team total could be the location. Globe Life Ballpark in Arlington has historically been a hitter’s venue, especially when the weather starts to heat up. It’s currently expected to be 88 degrees at game time, and pitchers with comparable salaries and weather conditions have historically struggled in Arlington:
Noah Syndergaard is the third stud option available on the main slate, and he trails Scherzer in opponent implied team total (3.0 runs), Sale in moneyline odds (-185), and both in K Prediction (7.3). However, he does have the best recent Statcast of the trio, which could make him an intriguing option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs). His recent average distance of 184 feet represents a differential of -9 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials, K Predictions, and moneyline odds have been strong options on FanDuel:
He will likely be the lowest-owned option of the three.
On the afternoon slate, Justin Verlander stands out as the clear top option. He’s been ridiculously good to start the season:
Who knows exactly what is going on with the pitchers in Houston, but there’s no denying that Verlander has put together the best start of his storied career. He’s posted a minuscule 1.13 ERA through his first seven starts while posting a K/9 of 11.71. He’s a -190 favorite vs. the Arizona Diamondbacks, whose implied team total of 3.2 runs is the lowest mark on the afternoon slate. He also leads all afternoon starters with a K Prediction of 8.3.
Values
Chris Archer possesses a strikeout upside comparable to that of the top-tier pitchers, but he comes at a bit of a discount. He’s priced at just $8,400 on DraftKings, and his Bargain Rating of 56% is the top mark among all pitchers priced above $7,300. He’s taking on the Toronto Blue Jays, whose projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of 27.1% against right-handers over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 8.5 ranks third on the main slate. He’s also posted an average distance of 209 feet over his past two starts, which represents a differential of -7 feet when compared to his 12-month average.
If you’re looking to pay down even further at the position, Kyle Freeland could be an intriguing option against the Mets. He’s a pretty large underdog against Syndergaard, but he has a solid 6.9 K Prediction and a distance differential of -20 feet over his past two starts. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been nice options on DraftKings:
He’s also seen a salary decrease of $2,300 since the start of the season, which gives him some additional upside.
Fastballs
Jake Arrieta: He should have low ownership opposing Scherzer, and the Statcast data from his past two starts has been excellent. He’s posted a distance differential of -25 feet, and his opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs is tied for the sixth-lowest mark on the slate.
Ross Stripling: He’ll take the mound for the Dodgers in place of Rich Hill, and he’s a strong -172 favorite at just $4,000 on DraftKings. Pitchers with comparable salaries and moneyline odds have historically posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.28, but that might be an optimistic projection for Stripling, who has pitched almost exclusively out of the bullpen this season and rarely been asked to go more than two innings. He lasted just four innings in his only other start this year, so there’s no guarantee he hangs around long enough to factor into the decision.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins are implied for 5.3 runs, which is the top mark on the early slate, and they have an outstanding matchup against White Sox right-hander James Shields. He’s been a disaster over the past 12 months, posting a 1.53 WHIP and 1.84 HR/9, and his average batted-ball distance of 224 feet over the past two starts represents an increase of +9 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Each of the stacked batters will also have a splits advantage against Shields:
The Twins will likely be among the most popular stacks on today’s slate, but No. 6 hitter Robbie Grossman could serve to differentiate lineups. He is currently projected for just 2-4% ownership on FanDuel and has posted strong Statcast differentials over his past 12 games.
On the afternoon slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
The Dodgers’ implied team total of 4.9 runs ranks just third on the slate, so their ownership should be a bit more modest. They’re taking on Padres left-hander Eric Lauer, who has posted a dreadful 2.38 WHIP over the past 12 months and a slate-worst 250-foot average distance over his past two starts.
Kiké Hernandez is someone who deserves consideration even if you’re not stacking the Dodgers. He is extremely affordable at just $3,200 on DraftKings and has owned lefties to the tune of a .381 wOBA and .261 ISO over the past 12 months. Chris Taylor, Matt Kemp, and Cody Bellinger haven’t been as good against lefties, but all three have distance differentials of at least +13 feet over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Jesse Winker checks a lot of boxes. Projected to occupy the leadoff spot, he has the splits-advantage against Marlins right-hander Dan Straily and has posted a distance differential of +16 feet over the past 14 games. Add in the fact that the Reds are implied for 5.0 runs and Winker is priced at just $3,400, and there’s very little not to like about him.
Jason Kipnis has been dreadful recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.73 and a Consistency Rating of just 10% over his past 10 games on DraftKings. That said, his Statcast data is good, with positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate as well as an RBBL of +64. He could be due for some progression in the near future.
The Braves recently called up former All-Star Jose Bautista from the minor leagues, where he’s been learning to play third base. It’s been only two games, but he’s absolutely crushed the baseball since returning to the big leagues with a 319-foot distance, 97-mph exit velocity, and 40% hard-hit rate. If he continues to make that kind of contact, he’s going to find fantasy success.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA Today Sports
