This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Chris Sale: Pitchers, Red Sox
There is an abundance of aces on the mound for Sunday’s main slate. On DraftKings, Sale stands out with his -230 moneyline odds and stellar 9.5 K Prediction. Historically pitchers with comparable salaries, K Predictions, and Vegas data have exceeded salary-based expectations by 5.70 DraftKings points on average (per our Trends tool):
It’s a favorable matchup for Sale, as the projected Rangers lineup owns a 28.7% strikeout rate and an average .314 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Further, the Rangers are implied for a paltry 3.4 runs, the third-lowest total on the slate. The Red Sox ace also has the lowest exit velocity (86 mph) among today’s starting pitchers. On the downside, Sale hasn’t exceeded salary-based expectations over his past 12 starts, but he hasn’t fallen short by much, and his floor is consistently high.
Eduardo Escobar: Third Baseman/Shortstop, Twins
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Twins, who are implied for 5.2 runs. They also own a slate-best 87 Team Value Rating:
The Twins have a prime matchup against James Shields, who owns an atrocious 1.52 WHIP and a 1.83 HR/9 over the past 12 months. Shields also has recently allowed a high 224-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity. Overall, it’s an excellent matchup for Escobar, as he owns a .338 wOBA and .229 isolated power (ISO) over the past year against righties. Further, Escobar boasts exceptional recent batted-ball data with a 226-foot average distance and 90-mph exit velocity. Historically, hitters with comparable implied run totals and recent batted-ball data have averaged a +1.33 DraftKings Plus/Minus. Escobar is a solid value with an 81% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Travis Shaw: Third Baseman, Brewers
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Brewers have a respectable implied total of 4.9 runs and a Team Value Rating of 79 on FanDuel, the second-best mark on the slate:
The Brewers will take on Chad Kuhl, who has some of the worst recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 233-foot average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and 43% hard-hit rate. Shaw has posted a -2.97 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 33% Consistency over his past nine games, but his Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +11 suggests he has been a little unlucky in his fantasy production. Shaw has still been drawing a ton of hard contact with a 93-mph exit velocity and 43% hard-hit rate. Historically, hitters with comparable batted ball data, RBBLs, and implied team totals have averaged a +1.68 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Eduardo Escobar
Photo credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports
