Three Key Players (Sat. 5/5): Cody Bellinger in an Excellent Spot

This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.

Charlie Morton: Pitcher, Astros

For a 10-game main slate, pitching options aren’t as bountiful as I’d hoped. Morton is quite costly, but he stands above the rest with the best recent batted ball data on the schedule, posting an average distance of 166 feet, exit velocity of 82 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 18%. Historically, pitchers with comparable batted ball data have been quality investments on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):

With Zack Greinke pitching opposite of Morton, the Astros are just -120 moneyline favorites. However, Morton owns a slate-best 7.7 K Prediction, as the Diamondbacks’ projected lineup has struck out at a decent clip (26.1%) against righties over the past 12 months. The only minor concern with Morton is the Diamondbacks’ moderate 4.1 implied run total and .335 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against righties over the past 12 months.

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Cody Bellinger: First Baseman, Dodgers

Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Dodgers are one of three teams that are implied for at least 5.0 runs on Saturday. They also boast a slate-best Team Value Rating of 82 on DraftKings:

Bellinger will be squaring off against righty Bryan Mitchell, who has struggled of late, posting a -6.99 DraftKings Plus/Minus so far this season. Bellinger has crushed righties over the past 12 months, with a .394 wOBA and .301 isolated power (ISO). Plus, he’s got excellent recent batted ball data, with a 238-foot average distance and 91-mph exit velocity. Historically, hitters with comparable batted ball data featured in games with similar run totals have averaged a +1.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus.

Adam Duvall: Outfielder, Reds

With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Model belongs to the Reds, who are implied 4.7 runs:

The matchup for the Reds is intriguing. Lefty Caleb Smith has struck out 19 batters over his past two games, but he’s also allowing a 231-foot recent average distance and a 92-mph exit velocity. Duvall sets up well against lefties, as he owns a .368 wOBA and .263 ISO against them over the past 12 months. Additionally, Duvall has excellent batted ball data, with a 238-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity. He’ll also have a favorable Park Factor, as Great American Ballpark has a hand-adjusted Park Factor of 67. Historically, hitters featured in parks with similar Park Factors and run totals as well as comparable batted ball data have averaged a +1.25 DraftKings Plus/Minus.

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