The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday has a split slate that varies by site. DraftKings offers a six-game early slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and four-game main slate at 8:05 p.m. ET. FanDuel offers a five-game early slate and a 10-game all-day slate at 1:05 p.m. ET and a four-game main slate at 8:05 pm. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
There are five pitchers throughout various slates on FanDuel who eclipse $8,700 or more. (Salaries vary on FanDuel depending on the slate.)
Patrick Corbin checks in with the highest salary on both sites against the Dodgers. It’s not too difficult of a matchup as their projected lineup has a 26.8% strikeout rate and middle-of-the-road .300 weighted on-base average (wOBA). The Dodgers also rank 13th this season in weighted runs created (wRC+ per FanGraphs). With Alex Wood pitching opposite of Corbin, the Diamondbacks are slight favorites (-119 money line odds). Overall, it’s difficult not to consider Corbin with his 8.4 K Prediction. He may be tougher to roster on DraftKings depending on roster construction as he owns a 1% Bargain Rating. However, for FanDuel purposes, Corbin has been able to pick up the quality start bonus in all but one start this season. He’s also been incredibly consistent to begin the year:
Pitchers with comparable odds and K Predictions have historically averaged a +3.51 FanDuel Plus/Minus. His 39% hard-hit rate may be slightly concerning, but Corbin still owns a 16.6% swinging strike rate, trailing only Max Scherzer among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched this season (FanGraphs).
Carlos Carrasco will take on a Blue Jays team that is implied for just 3.4 runs. The projected Jays lineup has a .293 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months, which is a bottom-five mark on the all-day slate. Further, Carrasco owns a solid 7.4 K Prediction, and the Indians are heavy favorites (-199 moneyline odds). Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have averaged a +6.05 FanDuel Plus/Minus. The main concern with Carrasco is his recent batted-ball data: He is sporting a 233-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity. There’s also rain projected for this game, so be sure to monitor its status up until lock.
Lance McCullers will have to deal with the potent Yankees (third in wRC+ against righties this year), but New York also is prone to the strikeout: The projected Yankees lineup owns a 25.9% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. McCullers has a moderate 6.9 K Prediction, and the Astros are slight favorites at -127 moneyline odds, as the Yankees are implied for 3.8 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have been serviceable but not outstanding (per our Trends tool):
In that same game, Masahiro Tanaka has a tough matchup on the road against an Astros team whose projected lineup has a strikeout rate of just 17.5% and an elite .363 wOBA over the past 12 months against right-handed pitching. Tanaka is sitting with a 6.0 K Prediction and the Yankees are slight underdogs (+117 moneyline odds), as the Astros are implied for 4.3 runs. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data haven’t been wise investments:
Sean Manaea is the highest-priced pitcher on the main slate, but he’s also on the road against a tough Mariners team whose projected lineup owns a 21.8% strikeout rate and excellent .338 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Manaea will likely be highly owned due to a lack of options and his absurdly good start to the season:
This may be a spot to hop off the Manaea train, given his putrid 4.7 K Prediction. Additionally, the A’s are just -114 moneyline favorites. Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and Vegas data have historically been nothing more than average:
The sharp money is also all over the Mariners in this game. The Mariners are seeing just 35% of the tickets but 90% of the money (!!!), and their moneyline has shifted from +125 to +105.
Values
On the main slate, David Price owns a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. Price has had a couple of rough outings of late, but he’ll get a favorable matchup against a projected Rangers lineups that owns a 31.7% strikeout rate and low .276 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Rangers still hold a sizeable implied run total of 4.3, but the Red Sox are -150 moneyline favorites, and Price boasts a K Prediction of 7.0. Historically, pitchers with comparable Bargain Ratings, Vegas data, and K Predictions own a +2.87 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Even on the all-day slate, Thursday is void of many value options. If you’re feeling frisky, Mike Minor owns an 11.16 SO/9 over the past 12 months and is sporting a slate-high 7.8 K Prediction against the Red Sox. That said, he’s a risky play, as the Red Sox are implied for 5.3 runs, and the Rangers are sizeable dogs at +140 moneyline odds. Minor has also given up a lot of hard contact over his past two starts with a 94-mph exit velocity and 50% hard-hit rate.
Fastballs
Alex Wood: Is a slight underdog (+112 moneyline odds) against the Diamondbacks, but he owns a 7.4 K Prediction against an Arizona team that has a 27.3% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. Overall, the Diamondbacks’ implied total of 3.7 runs isn’t too extreme. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have averaged a +2.24 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Jake Odorizzi: Is a slight road favorite (-106 moneyline odds) against a strikeout-prone White Sox team (29.9% strikeout rate over past 12 months against lefties) with a low .283 wOBA. Pitchers with comparable data have historically averaged a +1.87 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Rain is in the forecast for this game so be sure to monitor its status up until lock.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on the early slate belongs to the Royals (per the CSURAM88 Player Model):
The Royals are implied for 4.7 runs against righty Mike Fiers. It’s a favorable matchup for Mike Moustakas, as he owns a .350 wOBA and .258 isolated power (ISO) against righties over the past 12 months. Salvador Perez will be on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he does own a 222-foot recent average distance, 94-mph exit velocity, and a 56% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable batted ball data have averaged a +0.98 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
The top four-man FanDuel stack on the main slate belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for a slate-high 5.2 runs:
Overall, it’s an excellent spot for the Red Sox, especially for Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez, who will be on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
Betts is sporting positive differentials in all of his recent batted-ball metrics with a +23-foot distance differential, +4-mph exit velocity, and +7-percentage point hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable differentials have averaged a +1.17 FanDuel Plus/Minus. Martinez also owns incredible recent batted-ball data with a 97-mph exit velocity and 47% hard-hit rate, metrics that have historically yielded a +1.61 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Matt Adams is projected to hit from the No. 3 spot against Trevor Williams. Adams has crushed righties over the past 12 months with a .391 wOBA and .306 ISO. Further, Adams has been obliterating the baseball with a 258-foot average distance and 97-mph exit velocity.
The Tigers have an excellent matchup against Eric Skoglund, who has atrocious recent batted-ball data with a 95-mph exit velocity and 53% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, the entire Tigers outfield smashes lefties, and they’re all drawing a lot of hard contact of late:
Logan Morrison is projected to bat from the No. 7 spot for the Twins, which isn’t ideal, but batting this low in the order could depress his ownership. Morrison will be on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO splits, sporting a .359 wOBA and .273 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’s drawing solid contact with a 95-mph exit velocity and 51% hard-hit rate, but he has been unlucky as evidenced by his Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +52. Hitters with comparable metrics have historically been excellent tournament plays:
Chad Pinder is sporting an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and owns a .363 wOBA and .202 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. His recent batted-ball differentials also look great, as Pinder boasts a distance differential of +15 feet, velocity differential of +5 mph, and a hard-hit differential of +36 percentage points. Further, he could be due for some progression as he owns an RBBL of +38. Khris Davis and Matt Olson also sport Bargain Ratings of 86% or more on FanDuel, and they each boast exceptional recent batted-ball data with exit velocities over 95 mph and hard-hit rates over 40%.
Overall, the A’s bats have a prime matchup against Wade LeBlanc, who has atrocious recent batted-ball data with a 250-foot average distance and 94-mph exit velocity. Yikes!
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Chad Pinder, Khris Davis, Marcus Semien
Photo Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
