NBA Breakdown (Thu. 5/3): Should You Roll With Embiid or Simmons?

The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.

Thursday features a two-game slate starting at 6 p.m. ET.

Cleveland Cavaliers at Toronto Raptors (-6.5) | O/U: 213

Raptors (109.75 implied points)

Down the stretch in Game 1, the Cavs did something they rarely did in the regular season: switch LeBron James onto Kyle Lowry. On 20 possessions, LeBron held Lowry to just two points and three assists with two turnovers. Our NBA Models still rate Lowry highly on the limited slate, and I doubt Cavs head coach Tyronn Lue wants to leave his team’s fate in the hands of emergency orange slices by using that strategy all game, but it’s something to account for after Lowry came up just short of 40 DraftKings points for the first time in six games in Game 1 despite it going to overtime.

DeMar DeRozan went from taking the analytically-dreaded long-2 (defined as 16 feet to the 3-point line) on more than 30% of his shots in 2016-17 to fewer than 20% of his shots in 2017-18, but unfortunately that hasn’t translated into increased reliability in DFS; DeRozan has exceeded value on DraftKings in only one-third of his games over the past month and fewer than half of his games on the season. With a player that inconsistent, your best bet is usually going to be to target them at the low end of their usual salary range, and DeRozan has been no exception:

In 43 games with a DraftKings salary of $8,000 or more this season, DeRozan is averaging an ugly -3.06 Plus/Minus and 37% Consistency, which stacks the odds against him with his price coming up from $7,800 for Game 1 to $8,400 for Game 2.

Jonas Valanciunas was a bully in Game 1. He finished with 21 points and an eye-popping 21 rebounds — his third straight home playoff game with at least 13 rebounds. With the threat of another big game from Valanciunas looming, the adjustment that Lue needs to make seems simple enough on paper: Reinsert Tristan Thompson into the starting lineup to defend Valanciunas and put Kevin Love on Serge Ibaka in a battle of who can be more invisible in the scoring column. Valanciunas ripped off 11 points in 24 possessions when guarded by Love in Game 1 but had just two points in 21 possessions when Thompson was on him. Either way, flourishing north of the border has been a trend all season for Valanciunas, who is averaging a +4.31 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 61% Consistency at home this season (via our NBA Trends tool). Valanciunas has a top-three rating on both sites in the Phan Model.

If Ibaka scores 10 points in Game 2, it would be his first time in double figures in six games. Ibaka’s minutes are down to 24.7 per game over the past three games, with Pascal Siakam breathing down his neck at 19.9 over that span. Both are projected to be among the lowest-owned power forwards on Thursday, which is enough to warrant tournament consideration given the small slate and each player’s sub-$5,000 price tag.

The rest of the bench mob — Jakob Poeltl, C.J. Miles, Fred VanVleet, and Delon Wright — are always viable in tournaments, with Poeltl rated the highest in our models Thursday. OG Anunoby will guard LeBron, but his work doesn’t show up in the box score much; he scored 13.0 DraftKings points in 30 minutes in Game 1.

Cavs (103.25 implied points)

LeBron James‘ $13,500 FanDuel salary is $400 higher than was previously on record in our database dating back to 2014, but, per the Trends tool, he’s posted a +4.53 average Plus/Minus and 69% Consistency in 13 games with a salary greater than $12,500. Even at his elevated cost, LeBron is popping up in most of the optimal lineups on our Lineup Builder no matter who else you lock in.

Kevin Love has connected on just 31.8% of his field goal attempts in the playoffs; he hasn’t been good. This s fact. But Love’s struggles have brought about a $1,600 salary decrease on DraftKings over the past month, so the question is whether it been profitable to target players under similar circumstances. I plugged in a salary range of $5,500-$6,500 and a salary increase of $1,000-$2,000 over the past month into the Trends tool, and the results looked good …

… until I accounted for the fact Love has a slightly negative Projected Plus/Minus:

Of the 97 matches, 15 (15.4%) hit 35 DraftKings points and seven (7.2%) hit 40.

As mentioned, it would make sense if Tristan Thompson continued to be an integral part of the Cavs rotation. We have him projected for 26 minutes tonight, which given his usual rate of 0.8 fantasy points per minute would leave him on track to hit value at $4,500 on FanDuel but leave him a little short at $5,200 on DraftKings.

J.R. Smith‘s best asset in terms of DFS is minutes played, and Game 1 showed why, with him swishing 5-of-6 from downtown en route to 20 real points and over 30 fantasy points. Smith is projected for over 33 minutes tonight, the most of any player priced $4,500 or below on either site.

Kyle Korver was back up over the 30-minute mark in Game 1. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings by at least one-half a standard deviation in 45% of his games over the past month; i.e., he can get hot from 3 and pay off his cost.

It’s also worth noting that Jeff Green has been a +EV play on the road this season:

George Hill played a playoff-high 28 minutes last game and is worth tournament consideration after he burned people in Game 1.

Philadelphia 76ers (-4.5) at Boston Celtics | O/U: 205.5

76ers (105 implied total)

Ben Simmons comes with a bigger cap hit than Joel Embiid on both sites, but you wouldn’t know it from looking at their production against the Celtics this season:

While Embiid was able to get 21 shots off on 63 offensive possessions in Game 1 mostly against Aron Baynes and Al Horford, Simmons managed to fire off only 11 shots on 83 possessions while being defended by a bevy of Celtics, including Marcus Morris, Horford, Marcus Smart, and Semi Ojeleye. Aside from having made as many 3s as you or I this season, Simmons’ biggest Achilles heel has been turnovers. He averaged 3.4 turnovers per game during the regular season, eighth-most in the league, but he also put up a respectable 8.2 assists per game; in five meetings this season with Boston, though, Simmons’ assist-to-turnover ratio is 25:22. The best way to sum up Embiid vs. Simmons is to look at our floor and ceiling projections (which use a PECOTA-style sim score model to analyze how comparable players have performed in the past): As of this writing, we have Embiid with a seven-point edge in projected floor but only a 4.4-point edge in projected ceiling.

J.J. Redick has nearly equaled Simmons’ fantasy production against Boston. That’s not feasible to expect long-term, but Redick lays claim to the top Projected Plus/Minus of any shooting guard on Thursday’s slate. Marco Belinelli is a much better play at $4,200 on FanDuel, where his Projected Plus/Minus is positive, than at $5,100 on DraftKings, where it’s negative. Both sites have tended to undervalue Belinelli on the road when the 76ers are favored this season, and he’s capitalized to the tune of a Plus/Minus of +3.80 on DraftKings and +1.79 on FanDuel in such situations (via the Trends tool).

In the regular season and playoffs combined, Dario Saric is averaging 0.97 FanDuel points per minute with Embiid off the floor but only 0.83 with him on (via our NBA On/Off tool).  Saric is one of three players on FanDuel priced in the $6,000-$6,300 range, and once again we see projected floor and ceiling do a great job of illustrating the differences between each player:

Saric is the lowest-floor, highest-ceiling option in that range. Another option, and one that’s projected for lower ownership, is Ersan Ilyasova. He’ll usually play minutes in the low 20s now that Embiid is back, but Ilyasova’s ability to shoot from distance and inhale rebounds makes him capable of scoring a fantasy point per minute or more when he’s out there.

Robert Covington does a lot of the dirty work for the Sixers, but man can he disappear from the box score for stretches. Case in point: He’s somehow managed just 13 points, seven rebounds, and four assists in his last 97 minutes against the Celtics, spanning three games. He’s not projected to be one of the top-owned players at his position, which holds value in tournaments on a small slate, but you can minimize risk by targeting him on DraftKings, where he carries a 98% Bargain Rating thanks to a $1,200 salary decrease over the past month.

Celtics (100.5 implied points)

Coach Brad Stevens’ resilient squad continues to function at a high enough level to beat playoff teams no matter which key pieces it’s missing at the moment, and that team success has translated into its players being reliable DFS options more often than not this postseason. As of this writing, Boston has a slate-high six players with positive Projected Plus/Minuses on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and it has three players — Marcus Morris, Aron Baynes, and Semi Ojeleye — projected for at least 25 minutes at a salary under $5,000 on both sites. Per the Trends tool, players who fit that mold have historically been good values on both sites:

Terry Rozier has gone for at least 16 points, six rebounds, and five assists in each of his last three playoff games. He’s got the highest projected floor on the Celtics and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of his teammates on DraftKings, though not on FanDuel. On FanDuel, it’s Jayson Tatum who comes out on top; he’s dropped 20-plus points in four of his past five games. And then there’s Al Horford, who leads the team in our predictive Pro Trends on both sites. Marcus Smart has played 32 minutes in each of the past two games, but he has a positive Projected Plus/Minus only on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating is 88%.

After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.

Pictured above: Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons
Photo credit: Bill Streicher – USA TODAY Sports