Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Pirates (+210) at Nationals (-230) — 7:05 PM EST
Bryce Harper will bat atop the order for the first time since 2013. He’s posted a .413 on-base percentage during his short stint as a leadoff hitter and is set up well against Chad Kuhl, who ranks among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Overall, Harper ranks among the main slate’s top-eight outfielders in both ISO and wOBA differential vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Still, he’s struggled to keep the ball off the ground recently, posting a 16 percent fly-ball rate over the past 15 days – 19 percent removed from his 12-month average. The bad news for both offenses is that estimated forecasts call for the third-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate.
Brewers (-116) at Reds (+107) — 7:10 PM EST
Reds in: Scott Schebler
Reds out: Jesse Winker
Jesse Winker will receive a day off against the Brewers, so Scott Schebler will start in right field and bat fourth. The Reds are currently implied to score 4.7 runs, although they’re one of just five teams in Tuesday’s main slate that have failed to post a combined wOBA above .285 against righties over the past 12 months. Chase Anderson will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the slate’s top-five pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 15 days. Anderson is especially in play on DraftKings, where his $7,000 price tag comes with a 78 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.15 FantasyLabs’ Projected Plus/Minus. Only Jose Peraza, Joey Votto, and Billy Hamilton have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months among the Reds starters.
Royals (+285) at Red Sox (-316) — 7:10 PM EST
Royals in: Abraham Almonte
Royals out: Mike Moustakas (right forearm contusion)
Mike Moustakas is out with a right forearm contusion, so the Royals will roll with Cheslor Cuthbert and Salvador Perez at the 3-4 spots for their matchup against the Red Sox. Chris Sale is set up brilliantly against a Royals lineup that is currently implied for just 2.9 runs and has combined to post a mediocre .293 wOBA vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Sale carries a 9.1 K Prediction and has averaged a slate-high 12.9 K/9 over the past calendar year. He’s especially in play on FanDuel, where Sale’s $11,300 salary comes with an 89 percent Bargain Rating and a middling 13-16 percent projected ownership rate. The only potential concern for the Red Sox ace is his 51 percent fly-ball rate over the past 15 days, which is 10% higher than his 12-month mark, and the slate’s third-highest mark among all pitchers. Still, the Royals-Red Sox matchup currently has the second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate.
Rockies (+147) at Cubs (-160) — 8:05 PM EST
Cubs in: Victor Caratini, Ben Zobrist, Ian Happ
Cubs out: Willson Contreras, Albert Almora, Javier Baez
The Cubs will roll with Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Ben Zobrist at the top of the order for their matchup against the Rockies. They’re currently implied to score a slate-high six runs and carry a slate-high Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Overall, Rizzo, Kyle Schwarber, and Ian Happ form the Cubs’ highest-rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Rizzo, in particular, is set up well, as he’s the fourth-highest rated overall batter in the Bales Model on DraftKings. He’s one of just five first basemen in Tuesday’s main slate that have posted a wOBA of at least .390 vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Jon Gray‘s status as one of just six pitchers in the main slate who have allowed less than one home run per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months is in jeopardy considering estimated wind gusts of 16 miles per hour blowing out to left field.
Blue Jays (+115) at Twins (-125) — 8:10 PM EST
Twins in: Gregorio Petit
Twins out: Brian Dozier
Brian Dozier will receive a rest day, allowing Robbie Grossman to bat leadoff for a Twins lineup currently implied to score 4.8 runs. They’re especially in play on DraftKings, where only the Cubs have a higher Team Value Rating. Overall, Grossman, Max Kepler, and Logan Morrison form the main slate’s second-highest rated three-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. Grossman has racked up six hits in his last 13 at-bats and is currently the second-highest rated overall batter in the Bales Model on DraftKings. The Twins are postitioned well against Marco Estrada, who has allowed an average of 1.76 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months – the fourth-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Estrada ranks among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in both average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days.
Dodgers (-174) at Diamondbacks (+160) — 9:40 PM EST
Diamondbacks in: Daniel Descalso
Diamondbacks out: David Peralta (right hand contusion)
David Peralta is dealing with a bruised right hand and won’t suit up Tuesday. Daniel Descalso will start in left field and lead off for a lineup currently implied to score just 3.2 runs against the Dodgers and left-hander Clayton Kershaw. The Dodgers’ ace is set up well against a Diamondbacks lineup that has combined to post a mediocre .290 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the third-worst mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Kershaw will look to continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 15 days. He’s the highest-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model, although the Dodgers-Diamondbacks’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate.
Pictured: Bryce Harper, Adam Rizzo
Photo via: LG Patterson — Getty Images
