Tuesday features another two-game slate, but there are still plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are three props I’m eyeing for games at 7:30 and 8:00 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Capitals C Evgeny Kuznetsov under 3.5 shots on goal (Even)
7:30 p.m. ET
Very few of these player props have moved considerably since the start of the playoffs. After failing to register a single shot in Game 2, Kuznetsov is even money to go under 3.5 shots, something he has done quite frequently over the past year (2.37 shots per game, 84th percentile) and less frequently over the past month (3.5, 97th). It’s notable that Kuznetsov accumulates most of his shooting volume on the power play (93rd), and no team has allowed fewer shots per game on the penalty kill than Pittsburgh in the playoffs (3.38 per game). The brutal matchup is highlighted by the Capitals’ slate-low 44.0 Expected Corsi For.
Predators W Viktor Arvidsson over 3.0 shots on goal (-150)
8:00 p.m. ET
Nashville has gotten a recent shooting spike from Arvidsson, who is averaging 5.0 shots per game over the past month (99th percentile) vs. 3.17 over the past year (96th). The Jets have also offered a favorable shooting matchup over the past month (86th percentile in shot attempts allowed), and Nashville boasts the highest Expected Corsi For today. Arvidsson has registered three or more shots in seven of his past 10 games.
Predators G Pekka Rinne over 27.5 total saves (-115)
7:30 p.m. ET
Predators-Jets is the clear favorite to lead today’s games in shot attempts, and Rinne has a slate-high 33.49 Save Prediction in our Models. Over the past month, Winnipeg has caused opposing goaltenders to accrue 30.15 saves per game, and Nashville has averaged 28.86 saves per game over that same time period. Winnipeg also has the slate’s second-highest Expected Corsi For but is tied for the lowest Expected Goals For, indicating that Rinne could stop a high percentage of his already voluminous workload.
Pictured above: Pekka Rinne
Photo credit: Brad Rempel-USA Today Sports
