The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday’s slate features a 10-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Monday features three top pitchers with salaries in excess of $10,000 on DraftKings:
Jake Arrieta has an excellent matchup against a Marlins team whose projected lineup has a 26.1% strikeout rate and lowly .291 weighted on-base average (wOBA) over the past 12 months against right-handed pitching. He owns the lowest K Prediction (6.4) among the top tier, but he’ll also be in the most pitcher-friendly venue, as Marlin Park boasts a Park Factor of 84. Further, Arrieta has excellent Statcast data, allowing a recent average batted-ball distance of 171 feet, exit velocity of 87 mph, and an incredibly low hard-hit rate of 5%. Overall, it’s a good spot for him, as the Phillies check in as -143 moneyline favorites and the Marlins are implied for 3.5 runs. Pitchers with comparable metrics have historically been safe investments on DraftKings (per our Trends tool):
Charlie Morton has the most difficult matchup among the top-tier options, as he faces a Yankees team that ranks second this season in weighted runs created plus (wRC+) per FanGraphs. That said, Morton has been stellar this season, averaging a +3.73 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 80% Consistency. Further, Morton’s recent Statcast data is excellent with a 168-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity, and 24% hard-hit rate. The Astros do have favorable Vegas data (-146 moneyline odds), but the Yankees’ implied run total of 3.9 runs is on the higher side when Morton’s salary is taken into account. Pitchers with comparable metrics and Vegas data have historically averaged a +3.71 DraftKings Plus/Minus, but their Consistency Rating has been below 60%:
Zack Greinke checks in with a slate-best 8.9 K Prediction, which makes sense considering that the projected Dodgers lineup owns a 28.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. The issue with Greinke is that he has been volatile to begin the season:
His recent Statcast data is also worrisome, as he’s allowed a fair amount of hard contact with a 45% hard-hit rate and a 90-mph exit velocity. Another negative trend for Greinke is his pitch velocity, which over the past two starts has trailed his 12-month mark by 2 mph, a differential that has historically led to an average -1.03 Plus/Minus for pitchers. That said, Greinke is still a tournament-viable pitcher with his 8.9 K Prediction, and the Diamondbacks are still favored (-134 moneyline odds) against the Dodgers. Greinke is a better value on FanDuel, where he is sporting an 86% Bargain Rating.
Values
Eduardo Rodriguez will likely have a high ownership rate, as he checks in as the slate’s largest favorite (-230 moneyline odds). Rodriguez’s 6.2 K prediction isn’t shocking, as the Royals don’t strike out often. Their projected lineup has a 22.4% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months, but they rank 24th in wRC+ this season. Along with the favorable Vegas data, Rodriguez also has solid recent batted-ball data with a 197-foot average distance, 89-mph exit velocity, and 27% hard-hit rate. Pitchers with comparable salaries, metrics, and Vegas data have historically been excellent value options:
Jon Lester and the Cubs are substantial favorites with -182 moneyline odds against the Rockies. However, that has more to do with the Cubs’ offense (5.6 implied run total) than it does with Lester. Overall, Lester has a solid 7.4 K Prediction against a Rockies team whose projected lineup has a 27.8% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. That said, the Rockies are implied for 4.1 runs, and Lester has atrocious recent batted-ball data with a 249-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity, marks that are 45 feet and 4 mph above his 12-month averages. Pitchers with comparable metrics have historically been quite volatile:
Fastballs
Jeff Samardzija: He is an excellent value on FanDuel with an 80% Bargain Rating. Samardzija’s only knock is his worrisome Statcast data, as he has a 220-foot average distance and 92-mph exit velocity. However, he has an excellent matchup against a projected Padres lineup that owns a 26.8% strikeout rate and .284 wOBA against righties over the past 12 months. Further, Samardzija owns a solid 7.4 K Prediction, the Padres are implied for a slate-low 3.4 runs, and the Giants are -152 moneyline favorites.
James Tallion: He is a slight road underdog (+102), but Tallion owns a solid 7.4 K Prediction. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically averaged a +2.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus with 6.3% ownership, making Tallion an intriguing tournament play.
Dan Straily: He is making his first start of the season, but he owns a 7.3 K Prediction against a projected Phillies lineup with a 27.5% strikeout rate against righties over the past 12 months. Straily will go virtually un-owned and could be an intriguing tournament play as the sharp money appears to be on the Marlins: They’re currently receiving just 17% of the tickets but are seeing 52% of the money, which is a massive discrepancy.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Brewers, who are implied for 5.0 runs:
Ryan Braun‘s distance differential (+12 feet) and exit velocity differential (+3 mph) have historically been positive indicators for hitters, who have averaged a +1.28 DraftKings Plus/Minus with such marks. He’ll be facing lefty Brandon Finnegan, who has struggled over his past two starts, allowing a combined 12 hits and six earned runs. Further, Finnegan’s recent batted-ball data is poor with a 216-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity, and 40% fly-ball rate. Finnegan also owns an atrocious 2.25 WHIP and 2.38 HR/9 over the past 12 months. The Brewers may go slightly under-owned, as the Red Sox and Cubs check in with implied run totals of 5.6, but the Brewers are in an excellent spot overall.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Recent Batted Ball Player Model belongs to the Red Sox, who are implied for 5.6 runs:
It’s a solid matchup for the Red Sox, as Royals pitcher Jason Hammel has given up loads of hard contact over his past two starts with a 43% hard-hit rate and 93-mph exit velocity. Despite owning negative wOBA and isolated power (ISO) differentials against righties, J.D. Martinez still owns a .397 wOBA and .340 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months. Further, he has been crushing the ball over his past 12 games with a 229-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, and 46% hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable data have historically averaged a +1.86 FanDuel Plus/Minus. The Red Sox and Cubs project to be the highest owned stacks of the day, so you’ll want to think carefully about how to diversify your exposure and differentiate your lineups.
Other Batters
Wilson Contreras has smashed lefties over the past 12 months with a .240 ISO and .403 wOBA. He’s also sporting excellent recent batted-ball data with a 234-foot average distance and 90-mph exit velocity. Contreras and a lot of the Cubs project to be popular with their slate-high 5.6 implied run total and the 13-mph winds blowing out to left field today:
Per Bet Labs, games at Wrigley Field with at least 13-mph winds blowing out to left field have hit the over 59.5% of the time.
Jose Altuve owns the second-highest Stolen Base Prediction on the slate. Hitters with comparable SB Predictions, lineup spots, and team implied totals (4.7) have historically averaged a +0.97 DraftKings Plus/Minus with a 48.5% Consistency Rating.
Jesse Winker continues to be an excellent value (62% Bargain Rating on DraftKings) hitting out of the leadoff spot. He owns a .402 wOBA and .200 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Further, Winker has positive 15-day/12-month differentials in average distance (+17 feet), exit velocity (+3 mph), and hard-hit rate (+11 percentage points). Hitters with comparable metrics have historically averaged a +1.02 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Brad Miller has excellent recent batted-ball data with a 257-foot average distance and 93-mph exit velocity. The Rays also have a favorable implied total at 4.7 runs. For more on Miller, check out Joe Holka’s Three Key MLB Players.
Nolan Arenado could be an intriguing tournament play in windy Chicago. He’s projected for just 2-4% ownership tonight against Lester. Arenado has historically crushed lefties with an elite .521 wOBA and .362 ISO. Further, he’s recently been obliterating the baseball with a 257-foot average distance, 93-mph exit velocity, and 44% hard-hit rate. As I mentioned before, Lester has atrocious recent batted-ball data along with a 61% fly-ball rate.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Nolan Arenado
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
