This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
J.A. Happ: Pitcher, Blue Jays
Rostering Blue Jays pitchers facing the Rangers in this homestand has not gone well thus far, as the Rangers have piled on 13 runs over the past two games. Maybe Happ can buck that trend, as he’s off to a stellar start to the season, posting a +11.96 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his first five starts with 80% Consistency. Happ is a massive -222 moneyline favorite with a 7.1 K Prediction. Pitchers with comparable metrics, salaries, and Vegas data have historically been safe investments (per our Trends tool):
Overall, it’s a solid matchup for Happ, as the projected Rangers lineup owns a 32.1% strikeout rate and a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of just .274. The only worrisome mark is Happ’s Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of -77, which suggests he has been a bit lucky to begin the season, but his 88-mph exit velocity is among the lowest on the slate. Even though his 217-foot recent average batted-ball distance isn’t ideal, it seems that batters haven’t been making hard contact.
Steve Pearce: First Baseman/Outfielder, Blue Jays
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Jays are implied for a slate-high 5.4 runs and boast an exceptional 94 Team Value Rating on DraftKings. They’re set to square off against Rangers left-hander Martin Perez:
With a lefty on the mound, Pearce is projected to bat leadoff. He has crushed lefties over the past 12 months with a .393 wOBA and .355 isolated power (ISO). Further, Pearce has excellent recent batted-ball data with a 229-foot average distance, 92-mph exit velocity, and 45% hard-hit rate, all of which exceed his 12-month averages by 14 feet, two mph, and eight percentage points. Hitters batting near the top of the order with comparable metrics and Vegas data have historically averaged a +1.20 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
Max Kepler: Outfielder, Twins
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Twins, who are implied for 5.2 runs against the Reds:
Reds Righty Tyler Mahle will be on the mound, and he’s allowed a fair amount of hard contact over his past two starts with a 95-mph exit velocity and 37% hard-hit rate.
Bonus player: On FanDuel, I like both Kepler and teammate Eddie Rosario, as they both own 82% Bargain Ratings and will be on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
Along with having near-identical wOBA and ISO splits, they each sport a recent average distance of 211 feet and own positive differentials in exit velocity and hard-hit rate. Hitters with comparable metrics in games with similar run totals have averaged a +2.10 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Good luck today, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: J.A. Happ
Photo credit: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports
