Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Rockies (-109) at Marlins (+101) — 7:10 PM EST
Rockies in: Pat Valaika
Rockies out: DJ LeMahieu (tight right hamstring)
The Rockies will roll with Charlie Blackmon, Ian Desmond, and Nolan Arenado at the top of the order for their matchup against the Marlins. Their implied run total has fallen from 4.7 runs to just 4.1 runs, thanks in large part to the absence of DJ LeMahieu, who is sidelined with tightness in his right hamstring. Still, each of Desmond, Arenado, Trevor Story, and Pat Valaika have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. southpaws over the past 12 months. Arenado in particular is set up well, as he ranks among the top-three third basemen in Saturday’s main slate in ISO and wOBA differential vs. left-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. He’ll face off against Wei-Yin Chen, who will make his first start since May 1, 2017. Chen is set up well against a Rockies lineup that has combined to post a .293 wOBA vs. lefties over the past 12 months, although the Rockies-Marlins’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Saturday’s main slate.
Marlins in: Brian Anderson
Marlins out: Justin Bour (back spasms)
Justin Bour was a late scratch from the Marlins lineup due to back spasms, and he’ll be replaced in the cleanup spot by Brian Anderson while Derek Dietrich takes over at first base for a Marlins team presently implied to score 4.0 runs – which rates in the middle of the pack in the main slate. Despite the low implied team total, the Marlins carry the fourth-highest Team Value Rating on FanDuel and DraftKings, and they are facing a Rockies team dealing with reverse line movement as their total has decreased 0.6 runs since the line opened. No Marlin costs more than $3,200 on FanDuel, and none of them have a negative recent hard hit rate differential.
Yankees (-106) at Angels (-102) — 9:07 PM EST
Angels in: Luis Valbuena, Jefry Marte
Angels out: Shohei Ohtani (sprained left ankle), Andrelton Simmons (sore right forearm)
Shohei Ohtani is dealing with a sprained left ankle, so Luis Valbuena will bat sixth for an Angels lineup currently implied to score just 3.8 runs. Andrelton Simmons was a late scratch with a sore right forearm, so Zack Cozart will get the start at shortstop, and Jefry Marte will slide into the eighth spot. The absence of both Ohtani and Simmons is great news for Masahiro Tanaka, who is the fourth-highest rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model. Tanaka has a solid 6.6 K Prediction, but has a tough matchup against an Angels lineup that has combined to strike out every .209 at bats over the past 12 months – the third-lowest mark in Saturday’s main slate. He’ll look to do a better job limiting the long ball, as Tanaka is one of just two pitchers in Saturday’s main slate that have allowed at least 1.9 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past calendar year. Both offenses will look to take advantage of estimated wind gusts of eight miles per hour blowing out to center field. Mike Trout in particular is set up well, as he leads all outfielders in Saturday’s main slate in both ISO and wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Pictured: Luis Valbuena
Photo via Richard Mackson-USA TODAY Sports
