The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
On Friday, we’re finally graced with an excellent 14-game main slate for both DraftKings and FanDuel at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
We have a loaded pitching slate on tap tonight with four studs on FanDuel priced over $10,000:
Corey Kluber checks in as the highest-priced pitcher on both sites, but he arguably has one of the tougher matchups against the Mariners. Their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 22.6% and a .340 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. That said, Kluber has an elite skill set with a 0.825 WHIP, 0.853 HR/9, and 11.73 K/9 in the past year. The Indians come in as the largest favorites on the slate (-240 moneyline odds), and the Mariners are tied for a slate-low total of 3.1 runs. Along with the favorable Vegas data, Kluber boasts an exceptional 8.9 K Prediction. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data, and metrics have been stellar investments. Even at their high salaries they frequently exceed salary-based expectations (per our Trends tool):
Jacob deGrom draws a matchup against a Padres team whose projected lineup has a high 28.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He also gets to pitch in a friendly venue, as Petco Park has a hand-adjusted Park Factor of 77. deGrom is tied with Kluber with an 8.9 K Prediction, but deGrom has slightly more favorable recent batted-ball data:
deGrom has solid Vegas data, as the Mets have -147 moneyline odds and the Padres are implied for just 3.2 runs. Matt LaMarca dives deeper into deGrom in today’s Three Key MLB Players.
Luis Severino is difficult to consider in cash games as he draws the toughest matchup of the bunch against an Angels team with a low 19.9% strikeout rate and a high .356 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Severino has a K Prediction of just 6.6, which is two-plus strikeouts less than the marks for the other top-tier options. The Yankees are still -140 moneyline favorites, but overall Severino’s upside potential is limited against the Angels despite his 10.73 K/9. We have him projected for just 2-4% ownership if you want to roll the dice in GPPs.
Stephen Strasburg rounds out the top-tier pitching options for Friday’s slate. He’ll take the mound against a Diamondbacks team whose projected lineup strikes out at a sizeable rate (27.3% over the past 12 months) and has a wOBA of just .306. Strasburg’s 8.7 K Prediction is comparable to deGrom and Kluber’s marks, but his recent batted-ball data is a bit worse with an average distance of 220 feet and an exit velocity of 89 mph. That said, the Nationals are still -161 moneyline favorites, and the Diamondbacks are implied for just 3.1 runs. Strasburg has historically fared well as a home favorite, posting a +4.34 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Values
Marcus Stroman is off to a horrific start to the season, posting a -12.33 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past four starts. However, Stroman has allowed a recent average distance of only 186 feet over his past two starts, and his slate-high Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of +76 suggests he has been quite unlucky. Stroman has a serviceable 6.4 K prediction, and the Jays are decent favorites at -142 moneyline odds. Historically, pitchers with comparable salaries, Vegas data, metrics, and RBBLs have been solid tournament plays with just 2.7% average ownership:
After returning from injury, Drew Pomeranz had a rough outing in his first start of the season, as he allowed three earned runs and lasted just 3.2 innings. However, he still struck out seven batters and has serviceable K/9 numbers over the past 12 months with a 9.18 K/9. He has a solid matchup against a Rays team whose projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 26.8% and .267 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. Overall, Pomeranz has a solid 7.2 K Prediction, and the Red Sox are sizable -168 moneyline favorites. The only glaring concern is that he allowed an average distance of 246 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 60% in his first start.
Aaron Nola is interesting because he has historically had severe home/road splits:
Now he is set to take the mound at home against a contact-oriented Braves team that has a strikeout rate of just 20.4% against righties over the past 12 months. However, they also own a low .282 wOBA. Nola has faced the Braves twice this season (both on the road), and he garnered just five combined strikeouts, but they didn’t do much overall damage, as he allowed just seven combined hits and three earned runs. Nola’s 6.2 K Prediction is nothing to write home about, but the Phillies have favorable Vegas data (-172 moneyline odds), and the Braves are implied for just 3.5 runs. He also has some of the best recent batted-ball data on the slate with a 187-foot average distance and an absurdly low 13% hard-hit rate. Nola’s likely the best value option on FanDuel (82% Bargain Rating) and a solid SP2 candidate for DraftKings.
Fastballs
Tyler Anderson: Has a 7.2 K Prediction against a projected Marlins lineup that has a 26.4% strikeout rate and atrocious .263 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months. The Rockies are currently -130 moneyline favorites.
Dallas Keuchel: Doesn’t strike out a ton of batters (8.15 K/9 over the past 12 months), but the Astros are -162 moneyline favorites at home, where Keuchel has historically averaged a +7.11 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 70.7% Consistency Rating.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Cincinnati Reds:
The Reds are in a good spot (4.7 implied run total) against Phil Hughes, who got lit up in his first start of the season, allowing a 263-foot average distance with a 99-mph (!!) exit velocity. Outside of Eugenio Suarez, the whole Reds stack will be on the positive side of its wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits:
Joey Votto and Scooter Gennett both hit right-handed pitching well and have RBBLs of +36 and +37, suggesting that they’ve been unlucky recently. Historically, batters with comparable RBBLs hitting in the top five of the order have averaged a +1.05 DraftKings Plus/Minus.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks in the Recent Batted Player Model belongs to the St. Louis Cardinals:
The Cardinals are implied for 4.5 runs and will take on lefty Steven Brault, who has allowed a recent average distance of 235 feet over his past two starts. Jose Martinez has smashed lefties over the past 12 months with an elite .513 wOBA and .453 ISO, and he boasts an excellent 94-mph exit velocity with a 48% hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Yadier Molina has a stellar .355 wOBA and .321 ISO against lefties, and he has been obliterating the baseball with a 236-foot average distance and 97-mph exit velocity. He also boasts an RBBL of +18. Historically, hitters with comparable metrics have averaged a +2.40 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Other Batters
Mike Moustakas has been incredibly consistent over his past 10 games, averaging a +2.82 Plus/Minus with a 70% Consistency Rating. Moustakas has been crushing the ball recently, as his average distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate are all above his 12-month averages.
Jose Ramirez will be on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he still boasts a .382 wOBA and .259 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. Opposing pitcher Erasmo Ramirez also owns negative 15-day/12-month differentials in both recent average distance and hard-hit rate.
It’s not quite an official MLB Breakdown unless I mention J.D. Martinez and his absurd .558 wOBA and .505 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months along with his 263-foot recent average distance and 97-mph exit velocity — metrics that have historically yielded a +2.10 Plus/Minus on FanDuel. Martinez is an excellent tournament play.
Trey Mancini is projected to hit from the leadoff spot, and he owns a .349 wOBA and .191 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. It’s an excellent spot for the Orioles, as they’re implied for 5.0 runs. Historically, hitters from the leadoff spot with comparable metrics featured in games with similar run totals have averaged a +1.93 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Jacob deGrom
Photo Credit: Adam Hagy-USA TODAY Sports
