The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a two-game slate starting at 8 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
In general, you want to bet on Russell Westbrook against poor teams — he has stark Opponent Plus/Minus splits — and also as a favorite. Here are his numbers as a fave/dog over the past two years:
- Favorite: 57.98 FanDuel PPG, +4.0 Plus/Minus, 64% Consistency
- Dog: 56.97 FanDuel PPG, +1.9 Plus/Minus, 57% Consistency
Those numbers suggest his price hasn’t been properly reduced historically for those splits, and his Consistency is notable. Still, this is a two-game slate, so not considering Westbrook seems foolish. That’s especially true considering how mad he was after Ricky Rubio recorded a triple-double and got the win last game. The Thunder have historically done well in games after a guard on the opposing team records a triple-double, and Westbrook said in the press conference the other night that he was going to “shut that s*** off,” when asked about Rubio’s play. I’ll throw some darts on that guy.
Value
Speaking of Sir Rubio, 26-11-10 plus two steals and a block ain’t too shabby in his first ever home playoff game. He recorded 59.2 FanDuel points and has been over 40 in all three games in the series. Even if it’s unreasonable to expect him to follow up that performance, he doesn’t need to in order to hit value at his $7,400 salary, which has a fantasy-point implication of just 33.19. He’s a lock for around 35 minutes and has now exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past 10 games.
Fast Break
I don’t think Derrick Rose being the focal point of the Timberwolves offense is a good idea for their future in this series (or anytime), but here we are. Last game he got 21:02 minutes and led the team with a ridiculous 36.4% usage rate. At those levels, it’s really hard not to hit value at his silly $3,800 FanDuel price tag.
Given that Rubio is coming off a triple-double and Chris Paul scored just 29.75 DraftKings points last game, and that at $7,700, Paul is $200 more expensive than Rubio, Paul will likely have low ownership. That’s intriguing given CP3’s nice 55.6-point projected ceiling — something he nearly hit two games ago in just 29:47 of action.
Shooting Guard
Stud
James Harden will likely win or lose guaranteed prize pools tonight. On the one hand, he’s shot just 26-of-65 so far in this series — largely thanks to the excellent, All-World defense of Jimmy Butler. On the other hand, this is the MVP, the NBA’s best player this season, and he’s coming off a loss in a first-round game. We saw in the second half when Harden exploded that even Butler can be cooked when Harden is rolling. Harden is much too expensive to roster in cash games at $12,200 on FanDuel, but again, he could easily win you a GPP — and do it at lower ownership than you might expect. On DraftKings he’ll likely be a bit more highly owned given his price tag of $10,600 and Bargain Rating of 99%.
Value
A lot of DFS players will go back to the well with Rubio, but I like the idea of pivoting to Donovan Mitchell (or rostering him in addition). The rookie has been outstanding in this series, exceeding salary-based expectations in all three affairs and going for 45-plus DraftKings points in two of them. He’s taken at least 20 field-goal attempts in all three games, and it’s clear that coach Quin Snyder is going to roll with him and the main unit as much as possible. The Jazz offense isn’t super-high-powered, but Utah is absolutely crushing the Thunder on the glass. Part of that is thanks to Mitchell, who has 27 rebounds so far in the series. But more importantly, offensive boards lead to extra possessions and increased offensive efficiency.
Fast Break
Many FanDuel users will roster Mitchell and Andrew Wiggins together, the latter of whom has gone for 30-plus fantasy points in each of his past two games against the Rockets. That means Eric Gordon (who has admittedly been awful recently) will have low ownership in guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs). The minutes and usage have still been there for Gordon — he played 33:49 in Game 3 and used 25.5% of Houston’s possessions while on the floor — but the shots haven’t dropped. In his past three games, he’s gone a combined 11-of-39. Considering he’s getting that much action and is now just $4,600 on DraftKings, I’ll gladly be overweight in tournaments.
Small Forward
Stud
Jimmy Butler and Paul George are the pricey options at small forward Monday, although their prices definitely differ between DraftKings on FanDuel. On DraftKings, they’re close with Butler at $8,000 and PG at $7,600. On FanDuel, Butler is at $8,800 and PG at $7,900. Considering that both of them have similar projected ceilings — PG’s is higher as of this writing — it likely means Butler’s ownership could take a hit on FanDuel. Butler and PG are very even in most regards, averaging nearly the same amount of fantasy points per minute both recently and on the year. They should also receive a similar minute workload. When that’s the case, I think it’s wise to play the ownership game, especially on a small slate.
Value
I guess the two-game slate is going to force us to look at Carmelo Anthony at $5,600 on both DraftKings and FanDuel (where he’s eligible at power forward only). Melo has been fine during the series, hitting salary-based expectations in each of his first two games and coming up just short in Game 3. Still, he’s getting over 30 minutes a game and got over 37 in each of the first two, plus he’ll use over 20% of the possessions while he’s out there. Even if he’s washed up and hurting the Thunder, we can’t think about that in DFS, especially down in the lower salary ranges.
Fast Break
Let’s stick with the theme of rostering an uninspiring Thunder wing projected for 30 minutes and talk about Corey Brewer. Our Models have him projected for 30.9 minutes as of this writing, and he’s hit value in two of the first three games of the series. He won’t fill it up with points, but he is a pest on defense and can rack up steals and blocks. He’s always trying to run, and if the Thunder are as successful at pushing the pace off of rebounds as they were back in Game 1, Brewer should easily hit value at $4,400.
Power Forward
Stud
There are no stud power forwards today; Derrick Favors is the highest-priced option on FanDuel at just $5,600.
Value
Favors is going to be quite chalky. He’s projected for 33.8 minutes, is the only power forward with a significantly positive Projected Plus/Minus, and has hit value in eight of his past 10 games, including each of the past two versus the Thunder. Favors has nice upside and went for 20 points and 16 rebounds in Game 2 in 37:04 of action. The Jazz clearly want to play big with Favors and center Rudy Gobert, especially since they’ve now won two games in a row by dominating the glass on both ends of the floor. Utah’s main unit with the two big men together has been especially impressive, which adds to Favors’ safety in DFS Monday.
Fast Break
The power forward position is brutal Monday — you almost have to go Melo and Favors on FanDuel. No other player is even projected for close to 30 minutes, and none of the ones projected for 25-ish minutes (Jae Crowder and Taj Gibson) are exciting. Crowder hasn’t been as needed with the Jazz playing big, while Taj just has such a low usage rate. I guess I’d lean Taj if I had to pick one — he theoretically has some upside for rebounds and blocks — but I’d rather go contrarian elsewhere.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns was perhaps the most disappointing player in the playoffs through two games but rebounded in Game 3, putting up 49.0 DraftKings points in 38:33 thanks to an 18-point, 16-rebound double-double. Still, it’s hard to get excited about him moving forward given his low usage rate: He was up at 22.3% last game but was below 20% in the first two games of the series. He’s taken just 13, nine, and nine shots in those affairs. While he’s still capable of putting up a huge game at any time and costs only $8,600, it’s hard to bank on him night-in and night-out at his usage rate in this series given how efficient he’ll need to be.
Value
Rudy Gobert has been outstanding of late, going for over 40 DraftKings points in each of his last two games. It’s clear the Jazz are prioritizing hitting the glass and slowing down the game, and Gobert has been a huge part of that. He went for 18 and 12 in Game 3 and 13 and 15 in Game 2, and he’s always in play for multiple blocks. He’s an outstanding value.
Fast Break
Clint Capela has disappointed lately but put up 50 DraftKings points in the first game of the series. He’ll have low ownership but retains that type of ceiling. I’ll take that in GPPs.
Good luck!
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Pictured above: Russell Westbrook (0) and Ricky Rubio (3)
Photo credit: Mark D. Smith – USA TODAY Sports
