This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
James Paxton: Pitcher, Mariners
If you do not want to pay all the way up for Chris Sale on Saturday, consider Paxton as an alternative. His 8.2 K Prediction is the third-best mark on the slate, and the Mariners are sizeable -153 moneyline favorites. The Rangers are still implied for 4.1 runs, but pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically been safe investments on FanDuel — even on the road (per our Trends tool):
Paxton is a solid pitcher with a 1.20 WHIP, 0.90 HR/9, and 10.71 SO/9 over the past 12 months. He’s in an excellent matchup against a Rangers projected lineup that has a high 32.6% strikeout rate and a subpar .269 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His 82% Bargain Rating on FanDuel gives him an affordable price tag as well.
At the time of writing, there is rain in the forecast for this game, so be sure to monitor the weather until lock.
Justin Upton: Outfielder, Angels
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top five-man DraftKings stacks in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Angels, who are implied for 5.1 runs:
Upton will square off against left-hander Derek Holland, who has troublesome Statcast data over his past two starts with an average distance of 234 feet, exit velocity of 97 mph, and 50% hard-hit rate. Meanwhile, Upton is sporting a recent average distance of 228 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 41%. He’s also smashed lefties over the past 12 months with a .489 wOBA and .393 isolated power (ISO). Hitters with comparable data to Upton have historically averaged a +1.79 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Nick Ahmed: Shortstop, Diamondbacks
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Diamondbacks have a healthy 5.1 implied run total, and they boast a slate-high Team Value Rating of 84 on DraftKings:
If you’re in need of salary relief, Ahmed has a 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is projected to bat sixth for the Diamondbacks against left-hander Clayton Richard. Over the past 12 months, Ahmed owns an excellent .487 woBA and .313 ISO against lefties. He has also been smashing the baseball, with a recent average distance of 239 feet and exit velocity of 91 mph. However, his Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) of 48 would suggest Ahmed has been unlucky. Hitters with comparable Bargain Ratings and metrics to Ahmed have historically averaged a +1.93 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with a 46.7% Consistency Rating.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
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Photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
