The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 15-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is loaded with top-end pitching talent, as four starters possess salaries of at least $11,400 on DraftKings:
Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer will square off in Los Angeles in a marquee battle of stud pitchers. Each of these guys has won three Cy Young awards, which is an honor that can be claimed by only 10 pitchers in history. This will be the first matchup between two such pitchers in over a decade, which makes for some must-see television.
But what does that mean for DFS purposes? For starters, both pitchers have lower moneyline odds than usual, with Kershaw checking in as a -140 favorite and Scherzer as a +129 underdog. Kershaw has been a favorite of -140 or less just six times over the past five seasons, but he still managed to post an average Plus/Minus of +3.00 on DraftKings. Scherzer has been an underdog on even fewer occasions, and he’s absolutely dominated in those situations (per the Trends tool):
These pitchers have the lowest opponent implied team totals of the day — Kershaw at 2.8 runs and Scherzer at 3.3 — so the Vegas data ultimately shouldn’t play a huge factor when debating between the two.
When it comes to the peripheral statistics, Scherzer has the clear edge. He leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 10.0, and his Statcast data from his past two starts is absolutely elite. His batted-ball distance of 179 feet represents a differential of -34 when compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have been among the best investments in daily fantasy baseball:
Even as a slight underdog, it’s hard not to consider Scherzer as the top option on the slate.
Justin Verlander will likely be the largest favorite of the day against the Chicago White Sox and has been outstanding to start the season. In his last start he was a bit overshadowed by Bartolo Colon, who took a perfect game into the eighth inning, but Verlander allowed just two baserunners while striking out 11. The projected White Sox lineup has a strikeout rate of 28.7% against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Verlander has a K Prediction of 7.8 on today’s slate. The Statcast data from his past two starts has also been impressive, resulting in negative differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. He has been owned at an average of just 12.3% to start the season and could be a forgotten man today given the sheer volume of elite pitchers.
Last but not least is Noah Syndergaard, who is a -135 favorite on the road vs. the Braves. He owns the best 12-month K/9 on the slate at 13.14, but the projected Braves lineup has struck out in just 24.9% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months. His K Prediction of 7.5 is the lowest among the top-end pitchers. That said, he has arguably the best recent Statcast data on the slate with a 167-foot batted-ball distance, 83-mph exit velocity, and 12% hard hit rate, which could make him an intriguing option for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Sean Newcombe stands out as an intriguing option for those looking to pay down at the position. He’s a slight underdog against Syndergaard and the Mets, but his opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs is sufficient. Where he really stands out is with his strikeout ability. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.35 over the past 12 months, and the projected Mets lineup has struck out in 30.1% of at-bats against left-handers over the same time frame. His K Prediction of 9.3 trails only Scherzer’s, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions and salaries ($7,400) have historically been awesome values on DraftKings:
Like other pitchers on the slate, Newcombe has excellent recent Statcast data, with distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials of -25 feet, -7 mph, and -16 percentage points.
Chris Archer stands out as a potential value on FanDuel, where his $8,000 salary makes him just the 10th-most expensive pitcher on the slate. He has solid Vegas data with an opponent implied total of 3.6 runs and moneyline odds of -123, and his K Prediction of 8.4 ranks third among today’s starters. Pitching at home in Tampa Bay also rewards Archer with a Park Factor of 79, and pitchers with comparable Park Factors and K Predictions have been strong values on FanDuel:
Fastballs
Michael Wacha: The weather could play a big role today in St Louis, where the current forecast calls for winds of eight mph blowing in from center field. Per BetLabs, the under has hit at a 55.5% clip with inward winds of at least five mph, so there could be diminished scoring in this game. Wacha is a strong -195 favorite and has a posted an average distance of just 165 feet over his past two starts.
Sonny Gray: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -6.53 over his past three starts, yet his Statcast data over that time frame is actually good. He’s allowed an average distance of 177 feet over his past two starts, which gives him one of the slate’s top marks in Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL), which is defined as the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days. Gray’s mark of +77 suggests that he’s been unlucky recently.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS Lineups. Today’s top-rated five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers are implied for 4.7 runs, which is tied for just eighth. However, the Rangers are underpriced on DraftKings relative to their implied team total, resulting in a Team Value Rating of 88. That’s the top mark among all teams, which could be important if you’re trying to fit a stud pitcher or two into your lineups.
They’re taking on Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez, who has posted a HR/9 of 1.89 over the past 12 months. His Statcast data from his past two starts has been poor as well with a distance differential of +21 feet. He could be in trouble against the Rangers, who are collectively swinging the bats well. Among the stacked batters, only Joey Gallo has posted a negative distance differential over the past 15 days.
The Cubs are heading to Coors Field to start a series with the Rockies, and the presence of all the stud pitchers on the slate could make stacking Coors a contrarian strategy. Of the two teams, the Cubs have the top four-man unit when stacking by ISO:
Facing Rockies right-hander Jon Gray, this Cubs stack has destroyed right-handed pitching over the past 12 months:
Batters in the top five of the order with ISOs of .225 to .325 have averaged a Plus/Minus of +1.72 on DraftKings, and the Cubs should come in with lower ownership than the average mark of 16.0%.
Other Batters
If you’re looking to buy low on a batter who has been unlucky recently, consider Alex Avila. He’s averaged a batted-ball distance of 254 feet over his past six games, resulting in an RBBL of +88. He’s taking on Padres right-hander Tyson Ross, and Avila has a .347 wOBA and .175 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months. Avila is priced at just $2,800 on DraftKings, which makes him a viable option for those looking to pay down at catcher.
The Cardinals are implied for 5.1 runs against Reds left-hander Brandon Finnegan. That puts Jose Martinez on the positive side of his batting splits, and he’s crushed righties to the tune of a .505 wOBA and .444 ISO over the past year. Historically, batters with comparable implied team totals and batting splits have posted a Plus/Minus of +1.25 on DraftKings, and he’s affordable at just $3,700.
Starling Marte offers a nice combination of hitting ability and stolen base upside. He’s taking on Phillies right-hander Ben Lively, and Marte has posted a .341 wOBA and .133 ISO against righties over the past year. Those are the top marks for players who have averaged at least .25 steals per game over the same time frame. Marte is also in good recent form, as he’s posted distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials of +15 feet, +4 mph, and +6 percentage points over his past 13 games.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Max Scherzer
Photo Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA Today Sports
