This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
This might be the best slate I have seen in quite some time. We have pitchers Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Noah Syndergaard, and Justin Verlander. We also have Coors Field in play, and at the time of writing there are five teams implied for over 5.0 runs.
Play ball!
Aaron Judge: Outfielder, Yankees
The Yankees are one of the five teams implied for at least 5.0 runs (per our Vegas Dashboard):
Judge squares off against Blue Jays right-hander Marco Estrada, who has some awful recent Statcast data with an average batted-ball distance of 232 feet, exit velocity of 90 mph, and fly-ball rate of 48%. Meanwhile, Judge has crushed righties over the past 12 months with an elite .443 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .349 isolated power (ISO). Over his past 10 games, Judge owns a +4.19 Plus/Minus on DraftKings with 80% Consistency. During his hot streak, Judge has enjoyed excellent Statcast data with a recent average distance of 225 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 42%.
Daniel Descalso: Second/Third Baseman, Diamondbacks
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top five-man DraftKings stacks in the Recent Batted Ball Player Model belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
If we want exposure to an ace pitcher or some high-priced hitters, we’ll need to save salary somewhere. Descalso is in a solid spot, as the Diamondbacks are implied for 4.8 runs against Tyson Ross, who has an awful 1.80 WHIP and a mediocre 7.20 SO/9 over the past 12 months. Descalso has been crushing the ball recently, as evidenced by his 94-mph exit velocity and 58% hard-hit rate. He owns just a 30% Consistency Rating over his past 10 games, but his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +53 on DraftKings suggests that he’s been unlucky. Historically, hitters with comparable metrics and Vegas data have averaged a +2.23 DraftKings Plus/Minus with 49.1% Consistency.
Justin Verlander: Pitcher, Astros
Tonight’s slate is absolutely loaded with pitching, and Verlander may be the best of the bunch, given that Kershaw and Scherzer are facing each other and Syndergaard has the lowest K Prediction (7.5) of the top-end pitchers. There is no Vegas line for this game yet, but the Astros will be favored against the White Sox. Verlander hasn’t been worse than a -143 moneyline favorite in his four starts this season, and he has historically pitched well as a favorite (per our Trends tool):
Verlander will take on a White Sox team whose projected lineup has a high strikeout rate of 28.7% against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He also has excellent Statcast data over his past two starts with an exit velocity of 87 mph and hard-hit rate of 20%. The Astros might end up being the largest favorite on the slate, and Verlander has dominated with a 100% Consistency Rating in his nine starts with the team:
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Justin Verlander
Photo credit: Shanna Lockwood-USA TODAY Sports
