The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a three-game early slate on DraftKings that begins at 1:10 p.m. ET while Fanduel’s early slate consists of two games. Both sites have a five-game main slate that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
The DraftKings main slate features two pitchers who cost $10,000 or more, while the early slate includes just one pitcher above $10,000:
Charlie Morton leads the early slate with a 1.17 WHIP and 10.78 SO/9 over the past 12 months: His 7.3 K Prediction is second-best on the slate, but his upside remains limited on the road against a tough Mariners team whose projected lineup has a low 21.7% strikeout rate and .326 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against right-handed pitchers over the past year. While Morton’s ceiling is limited, his floor remains high. The Astros are sizeable favorites (-172 moneyline odds), and the Mariners are implied for just 3.7 runs. Morton’s recent Statcast data have typically been positive: He’s sporting an average batted-ball distance of 194 feet and exit velocity of 88 mph and producing ground balls at a 59% clip. Pitchers with comparable metrics and moneyline odds have historically been safe investments (per our Trends tool):
The question with Morton is whether you want to pay his steep price tag on DraftKings (5% Bargain Rating).
James Tallion is the highest-priced pitcher on the DraftKings main slate, which is curious considering that the Pirates are slight road underdogs (+100). Tallion flashes some upside with his 7.8 K Prediction against a Phillies team whose projected lineup has struck out 29% of the time against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. On top of that, he’s not surrendering a lot of hard contact (22% hard-hit rate), and his recent average distance is 172 feet with an exit velocity of 87 mph. His Vegas data suggest that he is not without risk, but there are plenty of reasons to like Tallion. See Matt LaMarca’s Three Key MLB Players piece for more.
There seems to be a theme today with high-strikeout pitchers taking the mound against low-strikeout teams. Zach Greinke rounds out that trend, as he owns a 10.05 SO/9 over the past 12 months and the projected Giants lineup has a 22.5% strikeout rate against righties over the same time. Greinke has a stable floor with a 7.0 K Prediction (second-best mark on the main slate) and favorable Vegas data (-174 moneyline odds, 3.7-run opponent implied total). Historically, pitchers with comparable metrics and Vegas data have averaged 18.95 DraftKings points per game with a +2.22 Plus/Minus.
All the stud pitchers are expensive today on DraftKings, where they have Bargain Ratings below 10%.
Values
Chase Anderson will be a popular option with a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He’s facing a Marlins team whose projected lineup has a high 27.5% strikeout rate and low .249 wOBA against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. The Brewers check in as sizeable home favorites (-178 moneyline odds), and the Marlins are implied for just 3.9 runs. Historically, pitchers with comparable odds and metrics have averaged a +2.38 FanDuel Plus/Minus.
Jake Arrieta could be a viable SP2 on DraftKings with his 69% Bargain Rating, as the Phillies are slight home favorites (-108). He also has solid Statcast data with a recent average distance of 176 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph, and low hard-hit rate of 20%. The concern for Arrieta is that he has a mediocre 5.6 K Prediction against a projected Pirates lineup sporting a low 21% strikeout rate against righties over the pas12 months. On a five-game slate, options are thin, so he has a 26-30% ownership projection in GPPs.
Fastballs
On the early slate, Luke Weaver has an 8.1 K Prediction against a projected Cubs lineup that boasts a strikeout rate of 27.6% against righties over the past 12 months. That said, the Cubs also own a .337 wOBA, and the Cardinals are slight underdogs (+104). You could look at Jon Lester on the opposite side, but he’s off to an atrocious start to the year with a -8.78 Plus/Minus on DraftKings through his first three starts. Weaver offers a better floor with his strikeout upside.
Options are thin on a five-game slate, but the Red Sox-Angels game is currently a pick’em. Eduardo Rodriguez boasts a 10.30 SO/9 over the past 12 months, and he has struck out 15 batters in his first two starts. However, the projected Angels lineup has a slate-low 19.9% strikeout rate and monstrous .358 wOBA against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on the early slate belongs to the Baltimore Orioles (per the CSURAM88 Player Model):
The Orioles are implied for 4.7 runs against Jordan Zimmerman, whose last start was cut short after he took a line drive to the face in the first inning, but in his first two starts of the season he allowed 15 hits and 10 earned runs. Zimmerman has awful recent Statcast data with an average distance of 217 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and hard-hit rate of 40%. Manny Machado will be on the negative side of his wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits, but he still owns a respectable .332 wOBA and .196 ISO against righties over the past 12 months. He’s also sporting a recent average distance of 233 feet with a 61% fly-ball rate, which could get Zimmerman into trouble due to his fly-ball tendencies.
One of the top four-man FanDuel stacks for the main slate belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks are implied for the second-highest run total (4.9) on the slate and will likely be a popular stacking option. Paul Goldschmidt dominates lefties as evidenced by his elite .453 wOBA and .336 ISO over the past 12 months. Goldy is obliterating the ball over his past 11 games with an average distance of 233 feet, exit velocity of 93 mph, and hard-hit rate of 46%. Historically, hitters with comparable batted-ball and Vegas data have averaged a +1.76 FanDuel Plus/Minus.Overall, this a good spot for the Diamondbacks. With the exception of David Peralta, everyone will be on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
Other Batters
On the early slate, Dee Gordon owns the highest Stolen Base Prediction (.45), which has historically led to an excellent floor. Batters with comparable SB Predictions have averaged 8.75 DraftKings points per game with a 49.5% Consistency Rating.
Alex Cobb has suspect recent Statcast data with an average distance of 225 feet and hard-hit rate of 40%. Meanwhile, Nick Castellanos is generating lots of hard contact as shown by his exit velocity of 93 mph and hard-hit rate of 53%. Batters with comparable data have averaged a +1.04 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Hanley Ramirez owns a .341 wOBA and .201 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he has solid Statcast data to begin the year with an average distance of 233 feet and hard-hit rate of 37%. J.D. Martinez will be on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he still owns a .397 wOBA and .340 ISO. Martinez is smoking the baseball with an absurd recent average distance of 287 feet, exit velocity of 97 mph, and hard-hit rate of 67%. Opposing pitcher Nick Tropeano has a woeful recent average distance of 235 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard-hit rate of 50%. Yikes!
Justin Upton has solid recent Statcast data with an exit velocity of 95 mph and hard-hit rate of 42%. He also hits lefties well with an elite .489 wOBA and .393 ISO over the past 12 months. Since 2016, Upton has averaged a +2.69 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 45.7% Consistency Rating:
The Mets are implied for 4.5 runs with the wind blowing (11 mph) out to centerfield. If you’re in need of salary relief, their 1-3-4-5 batters all boast Bargain Ratings of 70% or higher, and they’re all on the positive side of their wOBA and ISO splits:
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: J.D. Martinez
Photo Credit: Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports
