The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday’s early slate is different on each site. DraftKings has a six-game early slate that starts at 1:10 p.m. ET while FanDuel has a four-game early slate (or an all-day slate) that starts at 12:35 p.m. ET. Both seven-game main slates start at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
FanDuel has five pitchers priced $8,800 or higher that start in various slates throughout the day:
Gerrit Cole has been a tough fade thus far this season, as he has struck out 14, 11, and 11 batters in his past three starts. He’s also been quite heavily-owned:
Cole and the Astros have favorable Vegas data (-161 moneyline odds), and the Mariners are implied for 3.6 runs. That said, Cole had soft matchups to begin the season and will be tested against a Mariners projected lineup that has a lowly strikeout rate of 20.8% against right-handed pitchers. Consequently, Cole has a K Prediction of 6.3. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data, salaries, and metrics to Cole’s have historically struggled to live up to their lofty expectations in spots like this:
If there were ever a spot to consider fading Cole, a road matchup against this stellar Mariners team could be it.
Jose Berrios will face the Indians in Puerto Rico yet again, which is a slight concern since this park favors hitters. It’s a tough overall matchup, as the Indians projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 22.1% and a weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .327 against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Berrios has shown volatility this year, and the Twins are underdogs in this matchup (+120 moneyline odds). That’s a negative trend for Berrios, who has historically averaged 22.33 FanDuel points per game with a -4.41 Plus/Minus and 37.0% Consistency Rating as an underdog (per our Trends tool):
All that said, Berrios’ recent Statcast data looks excellent with an average distance of 176 feet and exit velocity of 87 mph. However, this doesn’t appear to be an ideal spot to roll with him against a tough hitting team.
Carlos Carrasco has a solid 1.10 WHIP and 10.14 SO/9 mark, and he doesn’t give up many home runs with a 0.93 HR/9 rate over the past 12 months. He has some of the best Statcast data on the slate with a recent average distance of 178 feet, exit velocity of 86 mph, and hard-hit rate of 21%. The Indians are slight favorites (-120 moneyline odds) against a Twins team that is implied for 3.6 runs. Over the past 12 months, the Twins projected lineup has an above-average wOBA (.340) against right-handed pitchers, but they also boast a high 26.4% strikeout rate. Much like Kluber last night, the knock on Carrasco will be the favorable park boost for hitters, but his strikeout upside (8.2 K Prediction) gives him an exceptional floor. Historically, pitchers with comparable Vegas odds and metrics to Carrasco’s have averaged 35.61 FanDuel points with a +3.55 Plus/Minus.
Robbie Ray can strike out batters at an amazing clip, as evidenced by his 12.65 SO/9 mark over the past 12 months, but he also gives up a lot of hard contact. Ray has worrisome recent Statcast data with an average distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and hard-hit rate of 40%. The matchup against the Giants will be on the tougher side: Their projected lineup sports a low 21.5% strikeout rate over the past 12 months. However, Ray may still have some upside here (which Matt LaMarca touches on in today’s Three Key Players piece).
The problem with Kenta Maeda is he doesn’t pitch deep into games (he’s averaged 4.30 innings pitched over the past 12 months) and can be prone to blow-up spots. That’s particularly true on the road:
All that said, Maeda does have a matchup against a Padres lineup that owns a 29.6% strikeout rate over the past 12 months against right-handed pitchers. Overall, it should be a good spot as the Dodgers are -161 moneyline favorites and the Padres are implied for a slate-low 3.3 runs. You’ll just need Maeda to not implode during the first four innings.
Values
The main slate is void of any stellar value pitching plays. I would recommend sticking with some of the studs mentioned above particularly in cash games.
The early slate is quite ugly as far as pitching options go, but if you’re in need of a potential punt option, Jacob Faria is dirt cheap. He’s a home favorite with a 6.3 K Prediction against a Rangers projected lineup that owns a 27.7% strikeout rate and .252 wOBA against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months. Yonny Chirinos didn’t work out Tuesday night, but historically pitchers with comparable Vegas data, salaries, and metrics have been serviceable value plays:
Fastballs
The early slate on DraftKings or the all-day slate on FanDuel allows you to roster Andrew Triggs against a White Sox team whose projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 28.8% against righties over the past 12 months. The A’s are sizeable favorites (-213 moneyline odds), and the White Sox are implied for the second-lowest total today (3.4 runs).
J.A. Happ squares off against a Royals team with a low strikeout rate of 22.7% but also a miserable wOBA of .293. The Blue Jays are the second-largest favorite on the day (-192 moneyline odds), and Happ has historically done well as a home favorite, averaging a +6.28 FanDuel Plus/Minus with a 64.8% Consistency Rating.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man early slate DraftKings stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays are implied for 5.0 runs against Ian Kennedy, who is off to a decent start to the season with just two earned runs in his three starts. That said, his -30 Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) suggests he’s been lucky. He has poor recent batted ball data with a recent average distance of 226 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and hard-hit rate of 41%. Squaring off against the right-hander will also put the majority of the Jays batters on the positive side of their wOBA and isolated power (ISO) splits:
The top four-man main slate stack from the CSURAM88 Model on FanDuel belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
With a 4.7 implied run total, the Diamondbacks have the highest on the main slate along with a slate-best Team Value Rating of 82. While the 1-2-4-5 stack rates the highest at a very affordable total salary of $11,200, if you had the extra funds, the 1-4 Diamondbacks stack rates just below it if you wanted to plug in Paul Goldschmidt over one of the batters shown above. Goldy will be on the negative side of his wOBA and ISO splits, but he still hits righties well with a .396 wOBA and .251 ISO over the past 12 months. The Diamondbacks will be facing Chris Stratton, who has allowed a poor 42% hard-hit rate through his first three games. Speaking of hard-hit rate, Daniel Descalso has been obliterating the ball in his past 12 games with a 61% hard-hit rate and 95 mph exit velocity.
Other Batters
On the early slate, Starling Marte leads the slate in Stolen Base Prediction (.31), which has historically led to fairly consistent output with a +1.10 FanDuel Plus/Minus and 46% Consistency. Marte’s price tag and the Pirates’ implied run total (4.2) will likely depress his ownership on the early slate.
The Brewers have a 4.9 implied run total, and Travis Shaw can smash righties: He’s averaged a .388 wOBA and .245 ISO over the past 12 months against them. The primary concern with Shaw is that his recent batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rates are all down compared to his 12-month averages.
Carlos Santana owns a .349 wOBA and .210 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and his recent Statcast data looks good with a recent average distance of 229 feet, exit velocity of 90 mph, and hard-hit rate of 31%. Rhys Hoskins boasts a .433 wOBA and .329 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, and he has some of the best recent Statcast data on the slate with an average distance of 259 feet and exit velocity of 94 mph. Historically, batters with comparable data to Hoskins’ have averaged 12.19 FanDuel points with a +2.10 Plus/Minus.
Francisco Lindor could be an intriguing tournament play against Berrios. Lindor is sporting a respectable .321 wOBA and .203 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months. He has also been destroying the ball over his past 10 games with an average distance of 231 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 52%.
With an elite .427 wOBA and .252 ISO over the past 12 months against lefties, Mookie Betts may be an interesting GPP play against Tyler Skaggs. Betts has smoked the ball in his past 10 games with an average distance of 240 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 51%. Meanwhile, Skaggs’ RBBL Score of -59 suggests he has been a bit lucky in his past two starts given his atrocious Statcast data: He’s allowed a recent average distance of 217 feet, an exit velocity of 98 mph (!!!), and a hard-hit rate of 62% (!!!).
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Gerrit Cole and Brian McCann
Photo Credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
