The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a 12-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate features three pitchers with price tags of at least $9,500 on FanDuel:
The group is headlined by Corey Kluber, who stands out as the clear top option of the day. He is featured in today’s Three Key MLB Players, and he leads all of today’s pitchers in K Prediction (9.8), moneyline odds (-180), and opponent implied run total (3.2). The only possible concern is that this game is being played in Puerto Rico, but Kluber should still be the highest-owned pitcher on today’s slate.
Shohei Ohtani is the ultimate wildcard today. His numbers through his first two starts have been absolutely elite: 0.46 WHIP, 0.69 HR/9, 12.46 K/9. If he can sustain that K/9 over the course of the full season, it would make him one of the top strikeout pitchers in the league; only Chris Sale posted a higher K/9 in 2017. However, today’s matchup with the Red Sox will be by far his toughest test of the young season. Their projected lineup has posted a wOBA of .332 and a strikeout rate of just 21.5% against right-handers over the past 12 months, and their average of 5.93 runs per game ranks third in the league this season. If Ohtani looks great again today, it’s going to be hard to control the hype train on him moving forward.
Here’s what Patrick Corbin has done to start the season:
Corbin has been a solid strikeout pitcher in the past, averaging a K/9 of 9.66 over the past 12 months, but he’s taken it to another level to start 2018. He’s racked up 29 Ks through his first 18.1 innings, including nine in his most recent start against the San Francisco Giants, whom he’s facing again today. The matchup doesn’t look great, as their projected lineup has posted a strikeout rate of just 21.0% against left-handers over the past 12 months, and their implied team total of 3.8 runs is accompanied by -133 moneyline odds for Corbin. He’s posted an average ownership of just 14.7% on DraftKings through his first three starts this season, and it’s possible he could be overlooked again.
Values
Given that there are only three stud pitchers on today’s slate, there is unsurprisingly a bunch of strong value options to choose from. Gio Gonzalez is taking on the New York Mets, whose projected lineup has struck out in 27.3% of at-bats against left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. His resulting K Prediction of 8.7 trails only Kluber’s, and his $8,500 salary on DraftKings makes him nearly $4,000 cheaper. Gonzalez has also historically loved facing the Mets on the road, where he has posted an 80% Consistency Rating over 10 starts (per the Trends tool):
Alex Wood is pitching in San Diego against the Padres, and he provides DFS players with Vegas data comparable to Kluber’s at a fraction of the cost. He’s priced at just $8,200 on DraftKings, and pitchers with comparable salaries and Vegas data have historically been solid options:
Unfortunately, that’s where the comparisons to Kluber end. Wood’s K Prediction of 6.4 is tied for just ninth on today’s slate, and Wood’s average batted-ball distance of 205 feet over his past two starts represents an increase of +14 feet when compared to his 12-month average. There’s also the issue of just how deep Wood will be able to go in this game, as he’s been no more than 90 pitches in each of his first three starts.
Lance McCullers stands out as one of the best values at the position on FanDuel, where his $8,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 85%. He excels at striking batters out — he’s posted a K/9 of 10.65 over the past 12 months — but his most impressive attribute might be his ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. In an era in which home runs have been on an astronomical rise, McCullers has managed to post a HR/9 of just 0.48 over the past 12 months. He’s a solid -178 favorite against the Seattle Mariners, who are implied for just 3.4 runs.
Trevor Williams looks like the top option for those looking to spend way down at the position today. He’s priced at just $6,700 on DraftKings and has a strong matchup with the Rockies, whose projected lineup that has posted a 29.1% strikeout rate against right-handers over the past 12 months. With a K Prediction of 7.5, Williams is also a solid -143 favorite. Pitching in Pittsburgh also rewards him with a Park Factor of 86, and pitchers with comparable K Predictions, salaries, and moneyline odds have been awesome values at pitcher-friendly stadiums:
Fastballs
Trevor Cahill: He’s one of the cheapest options on the slate at $5,100 on DraftKings, but he actually possesses decent strikeout upside against the White Sox. Their projected lineup has struck out in 28.7% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Cahill has averaged a K/9 of 9.43 over the same time frame. He has a K Prediction of 7.4, and pitchers with comparable salaries and K Predictions have posted an Upside Rating of 18%.
Zach Wheeler: He was extremely impressive in his first start for the Mets this season, racking up seven strikeouts while allowing just three base runners over seven innings. His Statcast data from that start are equally impressive, resulting in a distance differential of -14 feet and hard hit differential of -20 percentage points when compared to his 12-month averages.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Oakland A’s:
Their implied team total of 4.8 runs is tied for the second-best mark on the slate, and they have a nice matchup against White Sox right-hander Miguel Gonzalez. He’s averaged a K/9 of just 5.54 over the past 12 months, and his average distance of 219 feet over his past two starts is one of the worst recent distances on today’s slate. The stacked batters for the A’s are also in excellent recent form, with all but Matt Joyce owning a distance differential of at least +12 feet over the past 15 days:
The A’s have also been one of the unluckier teams in baseball to start the season, with all five of the stacked batters owning positive Recent Balled Ball Luck marks.
On FanDuel, the top four-man stack belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
The Diamondbacks’ implied team total of 4.3 runs isn’t nearly as high as that of the A’s, but they are extremely affordable on FanDuel. Each of the stacked batters has a Bargain Rating of at least 57%, and the entire stack costs just $10,800. That could be extremely important if you’re looking to roster Kluber.
The stacked batters have also been making great contact recently, as all four of them own positive distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials over the past 15 days. All four batters are also projected for just 2-4% ownership, so this stack should carry minimal ownership.
Other Batters
Most people won’t be looking to roster batters against David Price, which could make Ian Kinsler an intriguing target. He’s posted a wOBA of .353 and an ISO of .224 against left-handers over the past 12 months, and Kinsler has absolutely smoked the ball over his past two games, posting a distance of 240 feet, exit velocity of 95 miles per hour, and a hard-hit rate of 50%. All three of those marks represent significant increases when compared to his 12-month averages.
Adam Frazier is projected to bat leadoff for the Pirates, and he’s priced at just $2,200 on FanDuel. Historically, cheap leadoff hitters have been a nice source of value, posting an average Plus/Minus of +1.23.
Joey Gallo has elite power, homering in three of his past four games. His Statcast data over the past 15 days suggest that more good things could be heading his way in his future: His average distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate are all among the best marks on the slate. He’s projected for just 2-4% ownership on FanDuel and has as much upside as any hitter in baseball.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Marcus Semien & Matt Olson
Photo Credit: Stan Szeto-USA Today Sports
