The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a split-slate: We have an 11-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET and a three-game afternoon slate starting at 4:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate is absolutely loaded with elite pitching talent. There are currently six pitchers with salaries of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
Chris Sale was covered in detail in today’s Three Key MLB Players piece. He looks like the top option among this elite group. In addition to being a massive favorite and possessing the top K Prediction on the slate, he’s also posted elite Statcast data through his first two starts. His average distance of 182 feet represents a decrease of 15 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and that’s even more impressive when you consider that Sale is an extreme fly-ball pitcher. He should be sufficiently popular.
Clayton Kershaw is the lone elite arm available on the afternoon slate, and he’s taking on a Diamondbacks team that has struggled against left-handers over the past 12-months. Their projected lineup has posted a .292 wOBA and 28.5% strikeout rate, and Kershaw’s data are outstanding: -210 moneyline odds, 2.9-run opponent implied team total, 7.7 K Prediction. He’s historically been an elite option on FanDuel with comparable numbers in all three categories (per the Trends tool):
His Consistency Rating of over 90% is extremely impressive and makes him nearly impossible to fade in cash games for the three-game afternoon slate.
Noah Syndergaard stands out on DraftKings given his salary of just $10,500. That’s a bit of an outlier among the high-end starters, and his Bargain Rating of 51% is the top mark among all pitchers priced above $7,400. He leads all pitchers with 12 Pro Trends as well, and pitchers comparable in salary and number of Pro Trends have historically been elite options on DraftKings:
He leads all the stud pitchers with a 15-day/12-month distance differential of -21 feet, while his K Prediction of 8.0 ranks third on the slate. It’s also projected to be a crisp 41 degrees at game time in New York, which gives him a Weather Rating of 96.
Stephen Strasburg has a K Prediction of 8.8, which trails only Sale’s mark among today’s pitchers. He’s taking on the Colorado Rockies, whose projected lineup has struck out in 32.5% of at bats vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. His teammate Max Scherzer racked up 11 Ks in seven innings yesterday, which goes to show the kind of upside Strasburg has. His Vegas data are predictably strong, and his Statcast data from his two previous starts are inline with his 12-month averages. You’ll need to monitor the weather prior to locking in Strasburg, however, as this game currently has a 66% chance of precipitation.
Luis Severino is another pitcher with weather concerns: The Yankees-Tigers game owns a slate-high 87% chance of precipitation. That said, his moneyline odds of -228 make him the largest favorite of the day, while his K Prediction of 7.7 ranks fourth. He has massive upside if this game does play, so he could be worth consideration in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) if you can stomach some risk.
What a meteoric rise it’s been for Shohei Ohtani. He’s gone from a seeming bust in spring training to the current favorite for the AL MVP. He’s the ultimate wildcard on today’s slate, especially coming off a masterful 11-strikeout performance in his most recent start. That said, there is reason for skepticism with Ohtani. He’s taking on the Kansas City Royals, who have struck out in just 21.8% of at bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, so his strikeout upside will likely be limited. He’s also made just two starts at the MLB level, so it’s probably premature to place him in the same category as Sale, Kershaw, and Syndergaard.
Values
Carlos Martinez could be considered a stud pitcher on other slates, but today he’s more of a value option. There’s a lot to like about him. His Vegas data aren’t as strong as those of the top tier of pitchers — 4.0-run implied team total, -163 moneyline odds — but his numbers are still solid enough. Where he really stands out is with his peripherals. His K Prediction of 7.5 ranks fifth on the slate, while his distance differential of -26 ranks second. Historically, pitchers with comparable K Predictions and distance differentials have been strong options on DraftKings:
Unfortunately, this is yet another game with weather concerns: There’s currently an 87% chance of precipitation at game time.
It definitely feels like a day to pay up at pitcher, but one potential low-priced option is Jhoulys Chacin. He’s a big underdog against Syndergaard and the Mets, but he has a solid K Prediction of 6.9 and distance differential of -17 feet. At just $5,700 on DraftKings, he’s in play: Pitchers with comparable K Predictions and differentials have possessed a lot of upside:
He looks like a viable punt option at SP2 on DraftKings for GPPs.
Fastballs
Dylan Bundy: He has posted an average Plus/Minus of +9.32 on DraftKings over his first three starts and owns the top distance differential on the slate at -35 feet. He’s a massive underdog against Sale and the Red Sox, but his Bargain Rating of 93% on DraftKings implies that he’s underpriced at just $7,400.
Ryan Yarbrough: He’s a solid -141 moneyline favorite, and pitching in Tampa Bay rewards him with a Park Factor of 86. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories and salaries ($5,200) have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.10 on DraftKings.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the main slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels’ implied team total of 4.9 runs is tied for second on the slate, and they have an excellent matchup against Royals left-hander Eric Skoglund. He has posted a horrendous 2.33 WHIP over the past 12 months and got rocked for five earned runs over 4.2 innings in his first start this season. Facing a lefty also puts virtually all the stacked hitters on the positive sides of their batting splits:
The stacked batters are also affordable, with everyone but Justin Upton owning a Bargain Rating of at least 70%.
On the late slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Oakland A’s:
They’re implied for a slate-high 4.4 runs against Felix Hernandez, who has been shaky at best to start the season. He did get a win in his most recent outing, but he got shelled for eight runs by a weak Giants lineup in the start before that. His recent Statcast data suggest that there could be more trouble on the horizon: His average distance of 234 feet represents an increase of +21 feet when compared to his 12-month average. The A’s will likely be a popular target on the afternoon slate: Stacking them without projected No. 4 hitter Khris Davis could help from an ownership perspective.
Matt Olson may not be a household name yet, but he has absolutely destroyed right-handed pitching in his young career. He’s posted a wOBA of .458 and ISO of .407 against righties over the past 12 months, which gives him plenty of upside today against Hernandez. He’s also in solid form at the moment, owning a positive distance differential over the past 15 days.
Other Batters
Aaron Hicks will likely move to the top of the order against Tigers left-hander Matt Boyd, and Hicks has posted a .383 wOBA and .184 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months. He clubbed two home runs in his most recent game, which also gives him some really impressive Statcast data to start the season: 278-foot average distance, 96-mph exit velocity, 33% hard-hit rate. He’s very affordable at just $3,200 on DraftKings, with a Bargain Rating of 75%.
If you’re looking for someone who has been a little unlucky to start the season, consider Ryan Zimmerman. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -2.50 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, yet his Statcast data over that time frame are solid, giving him a Recent Batted Ball Luck score of +71, which suggests that some positive regression could be heading his way. He’s also on the positive side of his batting splits against Rockies left-hander Tyler Anderson, with Zimmerman posting a .423 wOBA and .319 ISO against southpaws over the past 12 months.
Franchy Cordero is projected to bat leadoff today for the San Diego Padres at just $2,600 on FanDuel. He’ll square off with Giants right-hander Tyler Beede, and Cordero has shown some pop against righties over the past 12 months with a .214 ISO. He’s also in good form at the moment, owning positive Statcast differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Noah Syndergaard
Photo Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA Today Sports
