This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Dexter Fowler: Outfielder, Cardinals
Fowler is set to square off against Reds right-hander Homer Bailey on Sunday. He stands out in our Recent Batted Ball Model as he boasts a recent average batted-ball distance of 226 feet and exit velocity of 91 miles per hour. The Cardinals are also implied for a slate-high 5.1 runs, and historically batters with comparable batted-ball data on teams with similar run totals have averaged 8.97 DraftKings points with a +1.05 Plus/Minus (per our Trends tool):
On the flip side, Bailey has suspect Statcast data with a recent average distance of 211 feet and hard-hit rate of 44%, and he also has the slate’s second-highest WHIP (1.64) and a paltry 6.27 strikeout rate over the past 12 months. Fowler is a solid value on DraftKings with a 75% Bargain Rating.
Ian Kinsler: Second Baseman, Angels
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top four-man FanDuel stack in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Cardinals, but since I touched on Fowler let’s look at the second-best stack — the Angels:
Kinsler has been crushing since returning from injury, posting an +8.02 FanDuel Plus/Minus in his past three games. He’ll be on the positive side of his weighted on-base average (wOBA) and isolated power (ISO) Differentials, as he’s sporting a .350 wOBA and .222 ISO against lefties over the past 12 months. Royals pitcher Eric Skoglund got shelled in his first start of the season, allowing five earned runs with an average distance of 236 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, and a hard-hit rate of 42%, numbers that are similar to those from his eight starts over the past 12 months:
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
There are an abundance of aces on the mound, but Sale will have the luxury of pitching with 16-mph winds at his back (per our Lineups page). Per BetLabs, games featured with winds of at least 16 mph have hit the under 55.3% of the time.
Sale will square off against a projected Orioles lineup that has a 26.1% strikeout rate against lefties over the past 12 months. He’s off to a scorching start to the year with a 12.18 SO/9 and 1.06 earned run average (ERA) in his first three starts. He leads the slate with a 10.7 K Prediction along with some of the best Statcast data on the slate with a recent average distance of 192 feet, exit velocity of 86 mph, and 26% hard-hit rate. The Orioles are currently implied for a slate-low 2.8 runs: Historically, pitchers facing teams implied for fewer than 3.0 runs have averaged 40.85 FanDuel points per game with a +5.67 Plus/Minus and a 63.3% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool).
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Dexter Fowler
Photo credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports
