The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 13-game main slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Friday’s slate features three pitchers with a salary of at least $9,000 on FanDuel:
Gerrit Cole is the priciest option of the group and has absolutely dominated to start the 2018 season. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +30.01, thanks in part to 11 strikeouts in each of his first two games. He looks to be in a nice spot today against the Texas Rangers; he’s a massive -230 favorite, and the opposing Astos’ implied run total of 3.4 is the second-best mark on the slate. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically been strong values (per the Trends tool):
Cole is also in one of the best strikeout spots of the day. He’s struck out 9.39 batters per 9 innings (K/9) over the past 12 months, which is above average. Against right-handers in that same time frame, the Rangers’ projected lineup has struck out in 29.6% of at bats. The only potential red flag with Cole is his Statcast data from his first two starts. He’s allowed an average distance of 212 feet, which represents an increase of 10 feet when compared with his 12-month average. The FantasyLabs MLB Models contain a proprietary metric called Recent Batted Ball Luck, or RBBL, which measures the difference between a player’s percentile rank in batted-ball distance and fantasy scoring over the past 15 days. Cole’s mark of -72 suggests he could be due for regression.
The other two studs, Kenta Maeda and Zach Grienke, are squaring off against each other in Los Angeles. Maeda is a slight favorite (-128), but Arizona’s implied run total of 3.3 is the top mark for a pitcher on the slate. That said, there are always concerns with Maeda. He dominated in his only other start this season, but still managed to throw just 90 pitches. If he isn’t extremely efficient, he likely won’t go deep enough into the game to fully realize his potential.
Grienke is the riskiest option of the bunch. Not only is he an underdog, but his Statcast data from his first two starts has also been horrid. His average distance of 249 feet is the worst mark among all of today’s pitchers and represents an increase of +37 feet when compared to his 12-month average. That said, he also might possess the most upside. He’s posted a K/9 of 9.98 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 7.5 is tied for the top mark on the slate. He also has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on FanDuel, which could make him worthy of consideration for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
Values
Given the uncertainty with the top pitchers on today’s slate, it could make sense to pay down at the position. One of the top candidates below the top tier is Eduardo Rodriguez. The Red Sox are currently implied for a whopping 6.0 runs, which results in -210 moneyline odds for Rodriguez. He also has a K Prediction of 7.5, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been solid values:
Rodriguez’s Statcast data from his first start was absolutely elite, particularly his batted ball distance of 159 feet. Factoring that in to the above Trend increases the average Plus/Minus to +6.14. Rodriguez is an extremely appealing target at just $8,500 on DraftKings and $6,600 on FanDuel.
Chad Kuhl could also garner some attention. He has an excellent matchup vs the Miami Marlins, whose projected lineup has a .239 wOBA and 34.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Their resulting implied team total of 3.8 runs is tied for the third-lowest mark on the slate. Pitching in Miami also rewards him with a Park Factor of 84, which ranks second among today’s pitchers.
Mike Clevenger has an opponent implied run total of 4.3, but that’s the only real negative working against him. He’s posted a K/9 of 10.12 over the past 12 months, and his K Prediction of 7.1 is the fourth highest mark among today’s pitchers. He’s also allowed an average distance of just 181 feet over his first two starts, which represents a differential of -23 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been solid investments:
His subpar Vegas data will likely lead to reduced ownership, which increases his appeal for GPPs.
Fastballs
Vincent Velasquez: He doesn’t stand out in any one particular category, but he offers a nice combination of K Prediction (6.1), distance differential (-11 feet), and Park Factor (84). He has a solid matchup vs the Rays, who’s implied run total of 4.0 is one of the lower marks of the day.
Ty Blach: He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -4.35 on DraftKings through his first three starts, but his Statcast data suggests he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball over that time frame. He’s allowed an average distance of 178 feet, resulting in a RBBL of +84.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Boston Red Sox:
The Red Sox implied team total of 6.0 runs is the top mark on the slate by a significant margin and they will likely be a popular team target. Stacking them in the above 1-2-3-4-5 manner could be the highest-owned stack of the day, so you’ll need to be more contrarian than usual with the rest of your lineup. They’re taking on Chris Tillman, who has posted a 2.00 WHIP and 2.27 HR/9 over the past 12 months.
The majority of the stacked batters are also in good recent form. Mookie Betts, JD Martinez, Mitch Moreland, and Rafael Devers have all posted positive distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials to start the season:
The Red Sox are also the top rated stack on FanDuel, so lets focus instead on the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels’ implied team total of 5.3 runs is tied for the second-highest mark on the slate. They’re taking on Royals’ right-hander Jason Hammel, who posted an ERA of 5.29 in 2017.
Mike Trout absolutely destroys right-handed pitching, mashing to the tune of a .470 wOBA and a .360 ISO over the past 12 months. He’s also hitting well at the moment, with positive differentials in distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate. Shohei Ohtani might be the most intriguing member of this stack, though. The early favorite for rookie of the year has averaged Plus/Minus of +13.55 on FanDuel to start this season, and his Statcast data suggests that his production has been no fluke.
Other Batters
Matthew Joyce is expected to bat leadoff for the A’s on today’s slate. He has a Bargain Rating of 91% on DraftKings for a matchup with Mariners right-hander Mike Leake. Joyce has posted a .362 wOBA and .263 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months.
No hitter has been more unlucky to start the season than Randal Grichuk. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of -4.43 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, though his distance differential is actually +9 feet to start the season. The result is a RBBL of +91, which is the top mark among projected starters Friday. Grichuk could be due for some positive regression.
Rhys Hopkins may not be a household name yet, but he’s been one of the most impressive batters in baseball since moving up to the MLB level last season. Hopkins’ average distance is 253 feet over his first 10 games of the season, which is the top mark on Friday’s slate among projected starters. Hopkins shouldn’t command much ownership given that the Phillies have a relatively low implied run total of 4.0, but he’s capable of going yard against anyone.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Eduardo Nunez
Photo Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
