Let’s do this.
Indiana Pacers (-1) at Dallas Mavericks
Implied Total: 102.5 – 101.5, O/U: 204
Paul George’s salary has suffered long enough, now including a Bargain Rating of 98% at DraftKings. Seeing as how he’d averaged 59.37 DraftKings points in the two games prior to squaring off with Kawhi Leonard (in which he produced 36.75), I worry less about his Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.72 against the Mavs and instead focus more on his projected floor (which remains only -0.3 points fewer than Leonard). He’s a fine cash option if playing the All Day or Early Only slates. Monta Ellis is the only other option that I’m eyeing here as he includes a -$700 price difference from FanDuel to DraftKings. Given that he’s exceeded expectations by +8.56 points over his last six games, he’s almost mandatory in those aforementioned early games (at DraftKings, anyways) in order to save salary.
Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets (-5)
Implied Total: 104.5 – 109.5, O/U: 214
Prior to last night’s “letdown” of 30.25 DraftKings points, Kemba Walker had exceeded expectations by +17.23 in his previous five games. Along with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.65 today, Walker should be considered one of the top options of any position in this slate. The same goes for James Harden among shooting guards as, despite his salary of $10,600, his Projected Plus/Minus of +7.1 leads his position.
Tournament plays remain scattered throughout — neither team having any interest in defense and all – the strongest of which remains Nic Batum: Houston, after all, has allowed a top-three rate of FanDuel points to small forwards over their last 10 games. Along with a Bargain Rating of 81%, note Batum has averaged a line of 16.8-6-5.8 in his last six games. Patrick Beverley is also a strong option as he’s averaged an additional +7.8 minutes since Ty Lawson was released.
Lost in the chaos last night was Michael Beasley’s super cool 29.5 DraftKings points on a usage rate of 55.2%. He’s obviously not as strong an option as, say, Dwight Howard, but Beasley’s implied total remains the absolute minimum. That’s worth some exposure, if only limited.
Detroit Pistons (-10.5) at Philadelphia 76ers
Implied Total: 108.8 – 98.3, O/U: 207
Likely without Robert Covington (stretchered off last night), Jerami Grant (concussion), and Richaun Holmes (questionable), all of Nerlens Noel, Ish Smith, and Hollis Thompson are considered more than viable in cash (if only for Philadelphia’s lack of depth); Noel especially, as his Rating of 88.8 in our Phan Model trails only Jason Smith among power forwards. All three were the only 76ers to log 32-plus minutes in last night’s victory over Brooklyn.
Stanley Johnson and Anthony Tolliver both returned for Detroit but logged only nine minutes off the bench. In the short term, at least, the usual suspects of Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris are expected to continue playing heavy minutes as Detroit’s primary forwards (as they’ve logged the second and third-most for the Pistons since Harris debuted). While Harris remains underpriced at FanDuel where he includes a Bargain Rating of 86%, Morris is considered more valuable at DraftKings given his -$200 decrease in salary. And while we’re here, don’t think twice on Andre Drummond: along with the most Pro Trends among centers, his Projected Plus/Minus of +6.8 includes a Bargain Rating of 93% at DraftKings.
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors (-5.5)
Implied Total: 96.5 – 103, O/U: 199.5
Having exceeded expectations by +8.56 points over his last six games, Goran Dragic, still incredulously underpriced at both sites, remains an elite cash option. Hassan Whiteside qualifies as their strongest play at DraftKings as, in having a Bargain Rating of 86%, Toronto has allowed +2.89 points above expectations to centers this year. Whiteside has also produced at least 45.5 DraftKings points in his last four outings.
If choosing among the Raptors backcourt, DeMar DeRozan, rather than Kyle Lowry, appears to be the safer play. Though a projected floor -6.9 points fewer than Lowry, DeRozan has an easier route to production: Lowry has a miserable Opponent Plus/Minus -1.64 today against the stifling Heat.
Memphis Grizzlies at Atlanta Hawks (-12.5)
Implied Total: 91.3 – 103.8, O/U: 194
As you’re reading this, realize Memphis, featuring nine healthy bodies at the time, finished their game against the Pelicans just over 12 hours ago; ‘at the time’, of course, because Vince Carter was helped to the locker room (and remains questionable for today). Unless Zach Randolph or Independent George come walking through that door, another 38-plus minutes remain on the table for Matt Barnes, JaMychal Green, Lance Stephenson, and Tony Allen. While I’m fine in shying away from Green at FanDuel (given his absurd +$1,800 increase in salary), Barnes and Stephenson still include Bargain Ratings of 95% and 97%. Lock them up and walk away.
Over his last four games, Jeff Teague has averaged 35.31 DraftKings points in 28 minutes. Though he’s strictly a tournament play (as we could be Budenholzer’d at any moment), note he’s exceeded expectations in 80% of his last 10 performances. I would actually argue Teague as the greater tournament play over Paul Millsap as the latter, though a Projected Plus/Minus of +6.4, does have an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.9 today.
New Orleans Pelicans at Milwaukee Bucks (-5.5)
Implied Total: 102.5 – 108, O/U: 210.5
I realize how enticing it might be to load up on Jerryd Bayless’ Bargain Rating of 90% in FanDuel cash games (at least I think I realize by how much I’ve run into him as of late), but note his usage of 8.7% despite logging 40 minutes in Milwaukee’s last game. In fact, since Michael Carter-Williams initially went down (before being ruled out for the year), Bayless has averaged 33.7 minutes, fourth-highest for Milwaukee, but a usage rate that tops only O.J. Mayo, Rashad Vaughn, and Johnny O’Bryant. He’s fine for tournaments in plus matchups, but let’s all just take a few deep breaths before considering him beyond that.
Khris Middleton and Jabari Parker are elite cash options. Duh. But FanDuel, in wanting to watch the world burn, hiked Giannis Antetokounmpo’s salary +$1,300 in only 72 hours. He’s exceeded expectations by +14.61 points in his last 10 performances, yes, and has a Dud Percentage of 0% over his last 11 games, sure, but why pay $9,600 when you can either save with Kawhi Leonard ($8,800) or pay +$1,300 more for the almighty Kevin Durant? Keep the exposure at DraftKings where he costs -$900 less.
Alvin Gentry has stricken us with grief throughout the year, but New Orleans’ recent lack of depth has suddenly kept them as one of the more consistent teams (for our purposes, anyways) in the league. Since Eric Gordon went down, for instance, Jrue Holiday has started and recorded a team-high usage rate of 32.7%. He’s averaged 52.1 DraftKings points in that span. Anthony Davis has also averaged the most minutes (41.2) and DraftKings points (54.5) for the Pelicans over that time. Both are considered top-of-the-line in cash games as neither have a Dud Percentage greater than 10% over the last month.
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs (-8.5)
Implied Total: 100.8 – 109.3, O/U: 210
As with any typical stretch-three that dare oppose San Antonio, note our models show Durant with an Opponent Plus/Minus of -6.86 today. His Projected Plus/Minus of +11.2 remains +4.3 greater than Leonard, but keep in mind his performance of 30 DraftKings points against the Spurs earlier this season. I’d limit exposure towards tournaments given the matchup (though Leonard can remain a top cash option). Enes Kanter should also be heavily considered as he finished with a line of 15-16 in his last outing versus San Antonio. He’s also averaged 32.23 DraftKings points in only 19.1 minutes over his last three games.
Though their back court now consists of Andre Miller, Kevin Martin, Manu Ginobili, and Danny Green on any given night, Tony Parker returned to score 45.5 DraftKings points against Chicago. Given his specific matchup of an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.2, Parker, who’s logged at least 30 minutes in six of his last 10 performances, remains an above-average tournament option.
Washington Wizards at Denver Nuggets (-1)
Implied Total: 105.8 – 106.8, O/U: 212.5
Emmanuel Mudiay can continue to have all the exposure at FanDuel due to his Bargain Rating of 97%. This matchup specifically remains an immaculate spot as Washington has a miserable defense to guards — he has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.36 today. Nikola Jokic can also be rostered with confidence in both cash and tournaments alike as he’s exceeded expectations by +12.67 points over his last six games – note his 27.1 minutes in that span.
Though a salary that’s declined -$400 in the last week, Markieff Morris has morphed into a tournament-only play alongside Nene – with the latter active in his last five games, Morris has averaged only 21.5 DraftKings points in 28.2 minutes for Washington. He produced 45.8 in 37.5 minutes without Nene after the All-Star Break.
Phoenix Suns at Golden State Warriors (-18)
Implied Total: 121.5 – 103.5, O/U: 225
With a Bargain Rating of 90% at FanDuel, I’m more inclined to throw a dart at Brandon Knight in tournaments than not. Having logged 25 minutes in his first game action in seven weeks, head coach Earl Watson made it clear that Knight would start (alongside Devin Booker) the moment he told him he was ready. Though it’s unclear at this time, that could be as early as tonight. Note his great Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.24 tonight as well. That doesn’t mean getting off Ronnie Price entirely, however, as he logged 38.3 minutes alongside Knight against the Nuggets. If anything, expect Archie Goodwin to fall back into that 15-18 range.
Though seven consecutive games with at least 10 rebounds, Alex Len has shot 29.7% over his last three performances. His minutes (31.1 since the All-Star Break) certainly keep him in cash considerations (especially at FanDuel where he has a Bargain Rating of 90%), but he’s no longer mandatory each and every night. Booker, however, remains as terrific an option as any as he’s exceeded expectations by +18.52 points over his last five games. Though an increase of +$600 at both DraftKings and FanDuel, note Booker (who plays in blowouts, mind you) has been gifted an Opponent Plus/Minus of +1.2 today (GS allows sneaky-high Plus/Minus’ to guards this year).
Having allowed the most DraftKings points to opposing point guards over their last 10 games, it’s (go figure) a terrific spot for Stephen Curry. Still, I’d limit exposure to tournaments as an 18-point spread is certainly worrisome for his overall run.
Orlando Magic at Portland Trailblazers (-8)
Implied Total: 103.3 – 111.3, O/U: 214
Scott Skiles promised change and delivered, starting C.J. Watson and Dewayne Dedmon (rather than Jason Smith) in place of Elfrid Payton and Nikola Vucevic (both of whom were ruled inactive prior to tip-off). Though Victor Oladipo had flourished at the point in his previous starts for Payton, he still finished with a team-high 40.5 DraftKings points at the two. Evan Fournier stuck at small forward, logging near mirror-image minutes to Oladipo (38.8/38.2). Along with Aaron Gordon, the trio remain the Nirvana of cash (Muse, for all those readers under 20) as each have a Bargain Rating of at least 93% at FanDuel. Watson is worth recycling if Payton were to miss consecutive outings as he logged 34 minutes in his first start of the season.
Forget last night’s 5-for-19 shooting and rewind Damian Lillard: his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.85 is obviously excellent tonight. Though a Dud Percentage of 25% over his last 12 games, C.J. McCollum also remains a strong tournament play if only because of his lowly $6,800 salary at FanDuel.
Good luck today!
