The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features a split-slate, and the slates differ depending on site. DraftKings has a seven-game early slate and a six-game main slate, while FanDuel has a five-game early slate and a seven-game main slate. The early slates start at 1:05 p.m. ET, and the main slates start at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate lacks a true ace, with no pitcher commanding a salary of greater than $9,700 on FanDuel. That said, there are still a few high-priced options to consider:
Robbie Ray is available only on the DraftKings early slate, but he’s in an interesting spot today vs. the San Francisco Giants. Ray is by far the best strikeout pitcher on the slate, evidenced by a K/9 of 12.71 over the past 12 months. Only Chris Sale posted a higher K/9 in 2017, and Ray has tallied 17 strikeouts over his first 11 innings in 2018. However, the projected Giants lineup has struck out in just 19.1% of at-bats against left-handers over the past 12 months, which is the lowest splits-adjusted mark on the slate. Ray’s K Prediction of 7.3 still ranks second on the early slate, but it’s lower than his typical projection.
Ray could potentially make up some of the value lost in his K Prediction by pitching against the Giants in San Francisco. AT&T Park is one of the most pitcher-friendly stadiums in baseball and rewards Ray with a Park Factor of 93. That’s a huge upgrade over his home stadium (Chase Field), and Ray has historically dominated with a comparable Park Factor as a member of the Diamondbacks:
Paying $12,400 for Ray on DraftKings could be a contrarian strategy given his +101 moneyline odds and the presence of Coors Field on today’s slate.
The two other stud options pitch on the main slate, and Jon Lester stands out as the preferred option. He’s a -181 favorite against the Pittsburgh Pirates, which makes him the second-largest favorite on the slate. His K Prediction of 6.8 ranks third, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been solid values:
Lester’s Statcast data from his first two starts are also excellent: 192-foot average distance, 86-mph exit velocity, 20% hard hit rate. All of those marks are lower than his 12-month averages. There is currently a 26% chance of precipitation, so you’ll want to monitor the weather conditions prior to locking him into your lineup.
Masahiro Tanaka rounds out the group of high-priced starters, but it’s hard to make a case for him today. He’s taking on the high-powered Red Sox offense, and his opponent implied team total of 4.1 runs is tied for just fifth on the main slate. Tanaka is also on the road, where he was awful in 2017:
He’s slightly more appealing today on DraftKings, where his Bargain Rating of 32% is the top mark among pitchers priced above $6,000.
Values
The next tier of pitchers might be the most intriguing on today’s slate. Lance McCullers Jr. stands out on the early slate, where he leads all pitchers in moneyline odds (-163) and opponent implied team total (3.5). He’s been an outstanding strikeout pitcher over the past 12 months, evidenced by a K/9 of 10.56, and his K Prediction of 7.9 also ranks first on the early slate. Pitchers with comparable Vegas data and K Predictions have historically been excellent values on FanDuel (per our Trends tool):
He also leads all pitchers with a Bargain Rating of 98% on FanDuel, and factoring that in to the above trend increases the average Plus/Minus of +5.07. If all that weren’t enough, McCullers has some of the best Statcast data on the slate as well, particularly his average distance of 177 feet and groundball rate of 69%. It’s hard not to consider him the top pitcher on the early slate.
Alex Wood should be one of the most popular options on the main slate, and he is covered in detail in today’s Three Key MLB Players. The only concern with Wood is his potential pitch count. He’s had fewer than 90 pitches in both of his starts this season, and he lasted more than six innings five times in 25 starts last year. He’s available only on the FanDuel main slate.
Nick Pivetta looks like someone who could be on the verge of a potential breakout. He went 3-0 over his final three starts in 2017, allowing just two earned runs while striking out 19 batters over 17 innings. He followed that up with an impressive spring training, and he’s coming off arguably the best start of his career in his last outing vs. the Marlins. Pivetta has a solid matchup today vs. the Cincinnati Reds, who have posted a wOBA of just .310 vs. right-handers over the past 12 months. Their implied team total of 3.9 runs is the second-lowest mark on the DraftKings main slate, and Pivetta has posted an impressive 12-month K/9 of 9.81 over the past 12 months.
Fastballs
James Shields: He was an absolute gas can in 2017, posting a WHIP of 1.47 and a HR/9 of 2.02. He’s lived up to that reputation so far in 2018, posting an ERA of 5.73 of his first two starts, but that belies some excellent underlying Statcast data. His recent average distance of 174 feet represents a decrease of 40 feet when compared to his 12-month average, and pitchers with comparable distance differentials have posted an average Upside Rating of 16% on DraftKings. He could be an intriguing option for those paying down at pitcher.
Luis Castillo: He hasn’t lived up to the promise he showed in 2017, posting an average Plus/Minus of -8.21 over his first two starts this season. However, he offers tons of strikeout upside today vs. the Phillies, evidenced by a slate-high K Prediction of 8.1.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. On the early slate, the top five-man DraftKings stack (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Colorado Rockies:
The weather is heating up in Colorado, which should result in nearly perfect conditions for hitting on today’s slate. All the Rockies batters have a Weather Rating of 98 to go along with their typical Park Factor of 100. The Rockies’ implied team total of 6.4 runs is the top mark on today’s slate by more than a full run. They’re taking on Padres right-hander Luis Perdomo, who has posted a distance differential of +30 feet through his first two starts this season.
Charlie Blackmon was scratched on Tuesday with back tightness, and he’s officially questionable for today’s slate. If he’s active, however, he’s undoubtedly the top target in the highlighted stack. He’s posted a 15-day/12-month distance differential of +18 feet over his first 10 games, and he posted a ridiculous average Plus/Minus of +3.53 at Coors in 2017.
On the main slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Los Angeles Angels:
The Angels’ implied team total of 5.3 runs is tied for the top mark on the slate, and they have a nice matchup against Rangers left-hander Matt Moore. He’s posted a WHIP of 1.63 over the past 12 months, which is the worst mark among all pitchers on the main slate. Moore’s left-handedness also puts the majority of the stacked batters on the positive side of their batting splits:
The Angels will likely be a popular target given their implied team total, which could make Rene Rivera an intriguing member of stacks. He’s posted an average distance of 256 feet over his first four games this season, which represents an increase of 32 feet when compared to his 12-month average. He should come at significantly lower ownership than some of his teammates.
Other Batters
The Mariners feature a couple of interesting batters on the early slate in Mitch Haniger and Guillermo Heredia. Both players are on the positive side of their batting splits against Royals left-hander Danny Duffy, and both players have also posted strong Statcast data to start the season. Haniger has an average distance of 249 feet, which represents an increase of 32 feet when compared to his 12-month average. Heredia has posted a recent distance of 261 feet, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck of +94 suggests that he’s been one of the unluckiest batters to start the season. Combining both players with some of their teammates could make for a strong contrarian stack.
The Mets have gotten off to the best start in the history of the franchise, and they trail only the Angels and Rangers with their implied team total of 4.7 runs on today’s slate. They’re taking on Marlins left-hander Jarlin Garcia, and the Mets feature a bunch of lefty-killers on their current roster. Todd Frazier and Yoenis Cespedes are the known commodities, but Wilmer Flores and Travis d’Arnaud both have wOBAs of at least .361 and ISOs of at least .205 against southpaws over the past 12 months. They’re currently priced at just $2,200 and $2,400 respectively on FanDuel, which makes them very easy to fit into lineups.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Wilmer Flores
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
