The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features a six-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Only one player on the slate has more Pro Trends than John Wall, who comes with a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. The Wizards can still move up to the No. 7 seed and get a coveted first-round matchup with the shorthanded Celtics if they beat them tonight, and Wall has been resting since last Thursday, so he should be expected to go the distance in this one. Bargain Rating is referenced a lot in this space. Why? Not only is it important to shop around for the best salary if you’re going to play on both sites, but even if not it’s still a predictive metric. Using our Trends tool, I pulled the graph of how Bargain Rating compares to actual Plus/Minus on DraftKings for every player in our database since the start of the 2014-15 season:
There are peaks and valleys from 0% to 89%, amounting to a -0.59 Plus/Minus and 42% Consistency in that range, but it spikes at 90% and remains high from that point on, with players that have Bargain Ratings of 90% or higher producing a +1.56 Plus/Minus.
That brings us back to Wall. He averages a +1.96 Plus/Minus and an outstanding 70% Consistency mark in 20 games with a Bargain Rating of 90% or higher this season, but he averages an ugly -3.93 Plus/Minus and 35% Consistency in 20 games with a Bargain Rating below 90% (at higher ownership, mind you).
Value
Tyler Ennis is one of the top value plays on the board after stuffing the stat sheet with 22 points, six rebounds, two assists, and three steals in 29 minutes last game. Ennis costs only $4,700 on FanDuel and $4,500 on DraftKings and has hit value on both sites in five straight games.
Fast Break
Ricky Rubio has averaged 1.18 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, which is tops at the position on Tuesday’s slate. He’s been battling hamstring woes and played only 18 minutes last game, but if he’s out there for his usual 30-plus, he’ll likely be among the top scorers at the position. His +3.65 Opponent Plus/Minus is also among the most favorable at his position.
If Ben Simmons (illness) is ruled out, coach Brett Brown indicated last year’s first overall pick, Markelle Fultz, would likely start. Fultz costs under $4,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel and averages approximately 1.0 fantasy points per minute, so he’d have appeal if Simmons can’t go.
Per the On/Off tool, Cory Joseph‘s usage rate increases by 4.1 percentage points with Victor Oladipo (foot), Thaddeus Young (rest), and Bojan Bogdanovic (rest) off the floor.
Shooting Guard
Stud
It won’t be surprising if James Harden sits tonight with Houston’s seeding long decided, but if he plays it’s worth noting that he’s averaged 69.0 FanDuel points in two games against the Lakers this season — his highest average against any team he’s faced more than once this season. He’s played at least 34 minutes in every game he’s appeared in this month, so there’s at least a chance he gets a full complement of minutes if he suits up.
Value
With Brandon Ingram (concussion) and Kyle Kuzma (ankle) scratched for tonight’s affair against an unmotivated Rockets squad, Josh Hart should continue to pick up minutes at the wing for the Lakers. Since returning from injury in March, Hart has been a strong play in every game that he’s played at least 30 minutes:
We have Hart projected for 37.9 minutes as of this writing — the most of any player on the slate.
Fast Break
J.J. Redick has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past seven games. Per the On/Off tool, Redick averages a +5.7 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 15 games without Joel Embiid (eye), with Redick’s usage rate increasing by 1.6 percentage points in such games.
After failing to hit salary-based expectations in eight straight games, Bradley Beal has done so in three straight. He has a 99% Bargain Rating on the site.
Donovan Mitchell has averaged a +3.55 Plus/Minus on FanDuel over his past 10 games and has been extremely consistent, failing to fall below expectations by 5.5 or more points since Feb. 26th.
Small Forward
Stud
Like Harden, Kevin Durant has played a full complement of minutes this month despite his team’s seeding no longer hanging in the balance. Unlike Harden, though, KD has not had success against tonight’s opponent. In two games against the Jazz, who allow the second-fewest points per game in the league, KD averages just 33.25 DraftKings points and a -16.57 Plus/Minus. That was with Stephen Curry in the lineup, though, and KD has hit value in four of five games this month. His usage rate did dip to 21.5% last game, one of his lowest marks of the season, so he might be taking a step back and allowing guys like Klay Thompson to get in rhythm for the playoffs.
Value
With Oladipo and Bogdanovic scratched, Lance Stephenson a.k.a. Born Ready and Glenn Robinson III should both get 30-plus minutes on the wing tonight for Indiana. Stephenson has been more reliable of late, playing at least 26 minutes in back-to-back games and hitting value in three straight, while last game was Robinson’s first foray above the 20-minute mark all season. It’s Stephenson who benefits most when Oladipo and Bogdanovic (and Young) are off the floor. Per our On/Off tool, Stephenson’s usage rate increases 2.2 percentage points in such situations; Robinson’s increases by only 0.2. Stephenson leads all players in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites. Robinson is more of a low-usage player that lacks the upside Stephenson has, but at $3,500 on FanDuel and $3,100 on DraftKings he’s still among the top values on the slate in our Models.
Fast Break
Joe Ingles has been crushing over the past month:
Over that span, Ingles has not fallen below his salary-based expectations on DraftKings by more than 3.56 in any game. Even with Rubio in the lineup, Ingles has been playing a key role as a facilitator, dishing 7-10 dimes in each of the past five games. Ingles has also had success against the Warriors this year, averaging a +3.86 Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency.
Jeremy Lamb is the highest-rated player in the Phan Model with projected ownership under 5%.
Power Forward
Stud
Ben Simmons missed shootaround today due to an illness and is questionable, so make sure to keep tabs on the news. Simmons has averaged over 50 FanDuel points and put up two triple-doubles in the six games since Embiid went down — including a 13-point, 12-rebound, 11-assist effort on March 30th against the same Atlanta Hawks he’ll face Tuesday. In fact, Simmons has put up at least 50 FanDuel points in both games against Atlanta this season. Considering that he’s cheaper than Harden and KD and his team still has something to play for, Simmons would be the safest floor/ceiling combo of any stud on the slate — if he plays. He’s tied for a slate-leading 11 Pro Trends (which, like Bargain Rating, is predictive) and has the most favorable Opponent Plus/Minus of any player priced in the $9,000s or above (+2.88).
Value
Dwight Powell‘s minutes have climbed from 19 to 28 to 35 over his past three games, and, with the Mavericks in full-on tank mode, Powell is expected to push for 30 minutes again tonight against Phoenix. At just $4,700 on FanDuel, Powell has a 99% Bargain Rating and has hit value in seven of his past 10 games, averaging a +2.74 Plus/Minus over that span.
Domantas Sabonis popped in our Models even before Young got ruled out and now becomes one of the top values on the slate. The Lithuanian big man poured in 30 points in 38 minutes off the bench for Indiana on Saturday against the same Charlotte Hornets he faces today. Trevor Booker also projects for minutes in the mid-20s for Indiana and costs just $3,600 on FanDuel and $3,300 on DraftKings. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games he’s played at least 16 minutes.
Fast Break
Powell’s teammate Johnathan Motley is actually eligible as a small forward on FanDuel but is a power forward/center on DraftKings — and one of the top projected ones in terms of value at that. Motley will be a boom-or-bust play in the unpredictable final game of the season; he played just 16 minutes last game but 40-plus in each of the two before that. We have Motley projected for somewhere in the middle Tuesday, and with an average of 1.0 DraftKings point per minute on the season Motley is capable of posting a high-ceiling total.
On the other side of that matchup is Dragan Bender, who costs $4,300 and has a Bargain Rating of 93% on FanDuel. Bender put up 14 points and 14 rebounds in 41 minutes last game and projects for over 33 minutes again tonight for the shorthanded, also-tanking Suns. Whereas Powell costs $5,800 on DraftKings, Bender is a lot more useful on that site as well at a salary of $4,700. Bender has been well over his salary-based expectations in each of the past four games.
John Collins averages a +5.66 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98%.
Center
Stud
With the Utah Jazz still posturing for seeding in a crowded Western Conference playoff picture, Rudy Gobert projects for nearly eight minutes more than any other center on the slate. Gobert has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and piled up 49.25 fantasy points against Golden State on March 25th. This game will be played in Salt Lake City, where Gobert has been a more consistently profitable play this season:
Value
With Marquese Chriss (hip) doubtful and Alan Williams (knee) joining the usual suspects on the sidelines for Phoenix, Alex Len should play minutes in at least the 20s. He’s got a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but he’s been solid even on DraftKings when projected for 20 minutes or more, posting a +2.11 Plus/Minus and 55% Consistency.
Fast Break
Marcin Gortat‘s season has mostly been disastrous, but he has a 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel at a salary of $4,300. Don’t look now, but Gortat’s been beasting recently:
Gortat is often a bargain on FanDuel; this is his 44th game this season with a Bargain Rating on 90% or more on the site. He tends to come through more often than not in such games, posting a +3.10 average Plus/Minus and 61.4% Consistency. He’s also had success against Boston this season:
Willy Hernangomez costs $4,400 on DraftKings and has a Bargain Rating of 98% for a matchup against Indiana. Hernangomez has put up at least 11 points and eight rebounds in each of his past five games despite playing only 15-24 minutes per contest. He projects on the high end of that range today at over 23 minutes and has averaged a +4.02 Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency this season in nine games he’s been projected for at least 16 minutes.
Both Atlanta centers — Dewayne Dedmon and Mike Muscala — pop in our Models for a matchup against the Embiid-less 76ers. Dedmon is a better play on DraftKings, where he has a 97% Bargain Rating and has averaged a +5.59 Plus/Minus and 70% Consistency over his past 10 games. Muscala is a better play on FanDuel but should be useful on both sites with a salary in the low $4,000s. Both are expected to split playing time fairly evenly.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Lance Stephenson.
Photo credit: Sam Sharpe — USA TODAY Sports.
