This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Aaron Nola: Pitcher, Phillies
Nola is off to a rough start to the year with just seven strikeouts in his first two games, but both of those starts were on the road, and now he’s at home, where he has been amazingly consistent. Since 2015, as a home favorite Nola has averaged 44.17 FanDuel points per game with a +15.03 Plus/Minus and an 83.3% Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
Nola’s Recent Batted Ball Luck of +70 suggests that he has been incredibly unlucky in his first two starts. He’s got excellent Statcast data with a recent average batted-ball distance of 166 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph and hard-hit rate of 20%. Nola is in an exceptional spot, as the Phillies have -177 moneyline odds, and the opposing Reds are implied for 3.4 runs, tied for the second-lowest mark on the slate.
Justin Upton: Outfielder, Angels
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Angels are implied for 5.2 runs, the second-highest mark on the day. They also have a respectable Team Value Rating of 75:
Upton is projected to hit third for the Angels, and he has been exceptional over the past 12 months against lefties with an elite .409 weighted on-base average (wOBA) and .403 isolated power (ISO). He’s off to a hot start this season with a +5.87 Plus/Minus on FanDuel as well as excellent recent batted-ball data: An average distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph and hard-hit rate of 39%. Opposing pitcher Martin Perez has a weak 1.58 WHIP and an atrocious 5.48 SO/9 over the past 12 months. Perez got knocked around in his first start of the season with a recent average distance of 227 feet, exit velocity of 98 mph, and hard-hit rate of 58%.
Adrian Beltre: Third Baseman, Rangers
With our Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. One of the top stacks on DraftKings in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Rangers:
We’ll need some cheap hitters in order to to fill out our rosters with Coors batters or one (or two) of the many top-tier pitchers on the mound. Beltre owns a 75% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and he’ll face lefty Tyler Skaggs. He has hit lefties well over the past 12 months with a .481 wOBA and .258 ISO and he’s averaged nearly 1.7 more DraftKings points per game against left-handed pitchers since 2014:
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Aaron Nola
Photo credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
