Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 5:45 pm ET.
Blue Jays (+104) at Orioles (-113) — 7:05 PM EST
TOR notable absences/replacements: Randal Grichuk –> Curtis Granderson.
TOR Notes: The Blue Jays will roll with Granderson, Donaldson, and Smoak at the top of the lineup for their matchup against the Orioles. They have a tough matchup against Bundy, as only Granderson and Martin have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Exposure to Granderson should be focused on FanDuel, where his $2,400 price tag comes with an 86 percent Bargain Rating and a +1.47 Projected Plus/Minus. Bundy hasn’t exactly done a great job historically limiting big hits, ranking among the main slate’s bottom-three pitchers in average batted ball distance and hard-hit rate allowed over the past calendar year.
BAL notable absences/replacements: None.
Braves (+219) at Nationals (-240) — 7:05 PM EST
ATL notable absences/replacements: None.
WAS notable absences/replacements: Adam Eaton –> Brian Goodwin.
WAS Notes: Turner will lead off in place of Eaton for the Nationals in their matchup against the Braves. The Nationals are currently implied to score 4.7 runs and have a great matchup against Teheran, who has posted a mediocre 1.415 WHIP over the past calendar year. He’s been absolutely shelled to start the season, ranking among the slate’s bottom-three pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 15 days. Turner is the second-highest rated shortstop on DraftKings in the Bales Model thanks to his status as one of the position’s top-three players in wOBA and ISO differential vs. right-handed pitchers. Overall, Turner has posted a .358 wOBA and a .196 ISO against righties since the beginning of last season. Turner, Rendon, Harper, and Zimmerman form the slate’s highest-rated four-man stack in the Bales Model.
Reds (+124) at Phillies (-134) — 7:05 PM EST
CIN notable absences/replacements: Jesse Winker (illness) –> Phillip Ervin. Scott Schebler (sore right elbow) –> Adam Duvall. Eugenio Suarez (fractured right thumb) –> Cliff Pennington.
CIN Notes: Winker’s illness isn’t thought to be severe, but both Schebler and Suarez have been placed on the 10-day disabled list. Still, the Reds are currently implied to score a respectable 4.2 runs and are especially in play on DraftKings, where they boast the main slate’s highest Team Value Rating. Votto in particular is set up well against Lively, as he’s posted a .451 wOBA and a .251 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. He’s crushed the ball to start the season, posting an average batted ball distance of 227 feet with an exit velocity of 93 miles per hour over the past 15 days. Lively does offer strikeout upside against a Reds lineup that has combined to strike out every .311 at bats over the past calendar year – the second-highest mark in Monday’s main slate.
PHI notable absences/replacements: None.
Mariners (+101) at Royals (-109) — 8:15 PM EST
SEA notable absences/replacements: Ryon Healy (sprained ankle) –> Dan Vogelbach.
SEA Notes: Healy has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a sprained ankle. Vogelbach will bat sixth for a Mariners lineup currently implied to score a mediocre 3.7 runs. Junis has a solid matchup against a Mariners lineup that has combined to post a .310 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Still, he doesn’t offer much strikeout upside, as he’s one of just five pitchers on the main slate with a K Prediction lower than five. Junis will look to do a better job limiting big hits, as he ranks among the main slate’s bottom-four pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past calendar year. The Mariners-Royals’ matchup currently boasts the second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Monday’s main slate.
KC notable absences/replacements: Lucas Duda –> Cheslor Cuthbert. Alex Gordon (groin soreness) –> Paulo Orlando.
KC Notes: Cuthbert and Orlando will bat fourth and sixth, respectively, against the Mariners. They’re set up well against Gonzales, as each of Merrifield, Soler, Escobar, and Butera have posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. lefties over the past 12 months. Still, they’re currently implied to score just 3.8 runs and will have to deal with the second-most pitcher-friendly Weather Rating in Monday’s main slate. Gonzales possesses non-existent strikeout upside considering his 3.7 K Prediction and average of 6.9 K/9 since the beginning of last season. He does have a good matchup against a Royals lineup that has combined to post a .296 wOBA vs. southpaws over the past 12 months – the second-worst mark in Monday’s main slate.
Padres (+163) at Rockies (-177) — 8:40 PM EST
SD notable absences/replacements: Hunter Renfroe –> Cory Spangenberg.
SD Notes: The Padres will roll with Asuaje, Headley, and Hosmer at the top of the order against the Rockies. They’re currently implied to score 4.1 runs and are especially in play on FanDuel, where they’re one of eight teams to carry a Team Value Rating of at least 74. Spangenberg, Asuaje, and Hedges have each posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Spangenberg in particular is set up well against Gray, as he ranks among the slate’s top-six third basemen in wOBA and ISO differential vs. righties. He’s crushed the ball to start the season, ranking among the main slate’s top-three third basemen in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate over the past 15 days. Gray does offer strikeout upside, as he carries a 7.6 K Prediction and has a solid matchup against a Padres lineup that has combined to strike out every .270 at bats over the past calendar year.
COL notable absences/replacements: Mike Tauchman –> Charlie Blackmon (tight back).
COL Notes: Blackmon will return to the Rockies lineup after missing Sunday’s game due to a tight back. He has a great matchup at home against Richard, as Blackmon is the main slate’s first- and second-highest rated batter on FanDuel and DraftKings, respectively. Overall, he’s posted a .398 wOBA and a .223 ISO vs. left-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Blackmon will look to continue to offer extra-base upside, as he ranks among the slate’s top-10 outfielders in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate over the past 15 days. While Richard is set up for strike outs against a Rockies lineup that has combined to strike out on a slate-high .314 of their at bats since the beginning of last season, he carries a sub-par 5.9 K Prediction and has recorded just 10 strikeouts in 12 innings pitched this season. The Padres-Rockies’ matchup currently boasts the second-most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Monday’s main slate.
Pictured above: Trea Turner
Photo Credit: Geoff Burke – USA Today Sports
