The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a nine-game main slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
There are five point guards priced at $7,500 or higher on FanDuel today in Jeff Teague, Kyle Lowry, Eric Bledsoe, Damian Lillard, and Russell Westbrook. Four of the five have something to play for with regards to the playoffs, with the lone exception being Lowry, who might rest on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Raptors have long been locked into the No. 1 seed in the East, but the rest of those players are fine buys. Just make sure to buy them on the correct site: Westbrook and Lillard have Bargain Ratings of 90% and 93%, respectively, on DraftKings, whereas the other two are better deals on FanDuel. Westbrook is probably the best bet of the group, although there is significant opportunity cost; Anthony Davis is highly motivated and has an outstanding matchup versus the LA Clippers, and Nikola Jokic is an awesome play as well. It will be hard to fit two of those guys, which could mean Westbrook might actually have reasonable ownership in guaranteed prize pools.
One guy I’d watch news for is Bledsoe. He crushed last game against the Knicks, but that was without Giannis Antetokounmpo. We don’t have word whether he’ll suit up with a sore ankle, and Malcolm Brogdon is slated to return any day. That could hurt Bledsoe’s value despite him posting solid games recently.
Value
New York Knicks guards Trey Burke and Frank Ntilikina have been value plays for the past couple weeks, and that will likely continue tonight against the Cavaliers, who still aren’t great defensively even with their overhauled roster. Over the past 10 games, Cleveland ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.2 points per 100 possessions. Trey and Frankie Smokes have FanDuel Opponent Plus/Minus marks of +2.35 and +2.44, respectively, and Trey leads all point guards with 13 Pro Trends Monday. They’re both projected for 30-plus minutes and should pay off their reasonable salaries — assuming this isn’t a massacre.
Fast Break
In Rajon Rondo‘s past four games, he’s played two against non-playoff teams and two against playoff squads. Against the former in Phoenix and Memphis, he played just 24.5 and 28.2 minutes and posted 16.6 and 27.9 FanDuel points, respectively. Against Golden State and OKC, however, his respective totals were 31.6 and 33.3 minutes and 46.3 and 31.1 FanDuel points. Unfortunately, he’ll face a Clippers team that just got eliminated and is now resting Lou Williams, among others. Will this game stay close?
We have no word on whether Lowry will rest, but if he does, expect Delon Wright to get the start and be a value play at just $3,900 on DraftKings and $4,400 on FanDuel. Wright has averaged 27.5 minutes and 23.8 DraftKings points per game in four games minus Lowry this year. That’s not outstanding value, but he does have nice upside for a better game than that against a Detroit team that’s already out of the playoffs.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jrue Holiday is the most expensive shooting guard on FanDuel at $8,900, but as with Rondo, I’m concerned about the blowout factor here. Holiday has crushed value in each of his past two games, putting up 54.0 and 54.2 FanDuel points against the Warriors and Suns, respectively, and that Phoenix game is a positive sign for tonight’s contest. Still, I’m guessing most people will pivot down to DeMar DeRozan if Lowry is indeed given the night off to rest. In four games this season sans his backcourt mate, DeRozan has led the team with averages of 35.9 minutes and 39.68 fantasy points, per our NBA On/Off tool:
That was below Lowry’s value at that time, but it would now lead to a Plus/Minus over +6.0 given his lower salary of $7,400. This game also has a lower spread in Toronto’s direction (-4.5), so minutes should be less of an issue than they are with Jrue.
Value
Both Lou Williams and Austin Rivers are out tonight for the Clippers, who are now out of the playoff race. That should mean 30-plus minutes for Tyrone Wallace and C.J. Williams in their place, and both are very affordable at $4,500 and $3,000 on DraftKings, respectively. They come with very high Opponent Plus/Minus marks — Wallace’s is +5.06 and Williams’ is +3.48 — against a Pelicans team that is tied for the fastest pace in the league this season, averaging 102.7 possessions per 48 minutes. Furthermore, their perimeter defense can definitely be susceptible with Rondo cheating for steals. If you’re wondering where Wallace is today, look at the top of GPP leaderboards.
Fast Break
Khris Middleton was a bit disappointing in his last game against the Knicks, which was without Giannis. Still, Middleton played 36 minutes and had a 32.1% usage rate. He posted 36.2 FanDuel points despite posting just one combined steal plus block and shooting 8-of-22 from the field. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaged a +6.30 Plus/Minus on 80% Consistency, so I like betting on positive regression tonight, especially if Giannis remains out with a bum ankle.
Small Forward
Stud
There are four small forwards priced above $8,000 on FanDuel today in Paul George ($8,100), Jimmy Butler ($8,200), Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400), and LeBron James ($12,200). Both Giannis and Butler have atrocious Projected Plus/Minus marks of -5.13 and -7.37, respectively — Giannis due to his questionable tag and Butler due to recovering from a knee injury. In fact, Butler played just 22.4 minutes in his first game back this past weekend against the Lakers.
LeBron looks like the stud to own, although the price difference between he and PG13 is huge. Still, LBJ is coming off a 74.7-FanDuel-point outing against the 76ers in which he played 40.1 minutes with a 43.3% usage rate. Even against the lowly Mavericks the other day, LBJ played 38.3 minutes. He’s clearly not resting, and if the game stays close and he gets 38-ish minutes against the Knicks, watch out.
Value
Like the shooting guard spot, the Clippers provide a ton of value at the small forward position Monday. Both Wesley Johnson and Sindarius Thornwell are projected to play 27-plus minutes with most of the main guys resting. Both are very poor per-minute guys — Wes is at just 0.71 DraftKings points per minute over the past year, and Thornwell is at 0.58 — but they’re also near the minimum at just $3,200 and $3,100, respectively. Furthermore, they also benefit from nice Opponent Plus/Minus marks: Wes’s is +3.46 and Thornwell’s is +3.47. Considering that the Clippers can’t really move a whole lot in the NBA Draft order, I expect the young guys (plus Wes) to play hard against the Pelicans. In a fast-paced environment, that’ll play for cash games, although their low ceilings due to their poor per-minute marks might make them worthy fades in GPPs.
Fast Break
Rudy Gay has averaged a +2.87 Plus/Minus on 70% Consistency over his past 10 games, and he’s been especially solid over the past week and half with the Spurs fighting for their playoff lives:
Of course, Gay has a different matchup tonight against Sacramento. On the one hand, the Kings rank 28th in defensive efficiency, allowing 109.2 points/100. On the other hand, they rank 28th in pace, they’re tanking for a good spot in the draft, and this line has ballooned to -14 in the Spurs’ favor. Gay is a great play, but keep your exposure in check in tournaments.
Power Forward
Stud
“To Anthony Davis or not to Anthony Davis” is definitely the question Monday. Davis has been absolutely ridiculous of late, exceeding 50 FanDuel points in 10 of his past 11 games. He’s playing huge minutes and using a ton of possessions, and the Pels are currently at 46-34, which is tied for the No. 5 seed with the Spurs and Thunder. The Wolves and Nuggets are just a game back at 45-35, meaning that one of these talented teams will miss the playoffs. The Pels have won each of their past three, including an impressive performance at Golden State in which Brow went for 70.4 fantasy points. The Clips are less talented and are out of the playoffs, but it looks like Tobias Harris and DeAndre Jordan are still going to suit up and get at least some run. Furthermore, New Orleans can’t afford to mess around here. There’s blowout risk, but Brow still needs to come out hot to make sure the Pels don’t drop a game; even one could mean sitting out the playoffs.
Value
The two best value plays at the position are also in that Brow game: Montrezl Harrell ($4,700 on DraftKings) and Nikola Mirotic ($6,100 on DraftKings).
Harrell is a per-minute daily fantasy superstar, averaging an incredible 1.13 DraftKings points per minute on the year. He’s crushed value lately even though he’s only playing minutes in the mid-20s.
Niko has been even better of late, going for 50.5 and then 59.5 fantasy points in his past two games against the Warriors and Suns, respectively. The Pels are riding their starters to get into the playoffs, and Niko isn’t afraid to get up shots. He has a combined 43 shot attempts over the past two games, and this game should have a lot of opportunities, as the Pels and Clips both rank in the top six in pace this season. Niko should be one of the most popular options on the entire slate.
Fast Break
Pascal Siakam has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in eight of his past 10 games, and he got close to 30 minutes last game against the Orlando Magic. He’s not going to score many real points, but he should be a decent source of rebound and assist value. He’s a cash-only play, however, as his ceiling is quite limited.
Tobias Harris hasn’t played a game in LA without Lou and Rivers. In fact, Harris has played just 12 total minutes without those guys. He posted a 28.4% usage rate during that time on the floor, but it’s hard to count on any sample of just 12 minutes. Still, he should be a featured part of the offense tonight and could surprise at low ownership, especially with the public hammering the value guys in the backcourt.
Center
Stud
Over his past 10 games, Nikola Jokic has averaged a +8.03 FanDuel Plus/Minus on 80% Consistency. Nuggets coach Michael Malone apparently finally realized that Jokic is decent at this whole basketball thing, and he’s been featuring him in the starting lineup ever since. Look at these recent game logs:
Jokic has been doing a little of everything of late, including operating as the main hub in the offense. Two games ago against the Wolves, he shot 6-of-20 and still put up 52.0 FanDuel points. That is incredible safety. He’s expensive at $10,800 on DraftKings and $11,500 on FanDuel, but he’s one of the safest bets of the night. We have him projected for 52.1 FanDuel points as of this writing, and I think that’s pretty darn conservative.
Value
It doesn’t feel quite right to pay $6,700 on DraftKings for Kyle O’Quinn, but here we are. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaged a robust +7.02 Plus/Minus on 80% Consistency, and he exploded for 52.0 fantasy points last game against the Bucks. He has a nice matchup today against a Cavs team that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 109.5 points per 100 possessions, and 22nd in rebound rate, grabbing just 49.0% of the available boards. O’Quinn has rebound totals of 16, 14, 12, and 15 over his past four outings. That’ll play at his still-mid-tier price tag.
Fast Break
Speaking of solid recent play, Jusuf Nurkic has averaged a +7.04 Plus/Minus on 80% Consistency over his past 10 games. The Blazers are still fighting for playoff seeding, and he’ll have a chance to ruin the odds for the Nuggets, his former team. And if you weren’t aware, Nurkic doesn’t exactly love his former employer. He put up 46.0 DraftKings points against them last time out and would relish giving them an L tonight.
Good luck!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured: Anthony Davis.
Photo credit: Troy Taormina — USA TODAY Sports.
