The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Monday features a 10-game main slate on DraftKings and FanDuel that starts at 7:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Monday’s slate is headlined by three aces who all cost over $10,000 on FanDuel:
Max Scherzer takes on the Braves, and he leads the slate in K Prediction (8.3), moneyline odds (-235) and opponent implied run total (2.9). Scherzer has historically done well (per our Trends tool) when he has moneyline odds of at least -200:
The primary concern for Scherzer is that over the past 12 months the Braves have a K rate of 20.5% against right-handed pitching. Even so, they also have a slate-low weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .274. Scherzer pitched against the Braves five days ago, and he disappointed (by Scherzer standards) in going just five innings, striking out seven, and allowing six hits and two earned runs. It’s also concerning that he has an atrocious batted-ball distance allowed of 241 feet with an exit velocity of 93 mph over his first two starts of the season.
Noah Syndergaard is a few hundred dollars less than Scherzer, and each pitcher has a 21-25% ownership projection on FanDuel. Thor is set to square off against a Marlins team whose projected lineup has a K rate of 29.7% against right-handed pitchers along with a .286 wOBA. The Marlins are implied for just 3.2 runs, and Syndergaard has the benefit of playing in a pitcher-friendly venue, as Marlin Park has a hand-adjusted Park Factor of 86 for righties. He also has a slate-best 0.52 HR/9. Pitchers with comparable data in similar pitcher-friendly environments have historically averaged a +2.83 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Justin Verlander is the cheapest of the stud options. He projects similarly to Scherzer and Syndergaard, but he will likely have a lower ownership rate (9-12 ownership projection). Verlander has a healthy 7.4 K Prediction and -160 moneyline odds, and the Twins are implied for 3.6 runs, the third-lowest mark on today’s slate. The game-time temperature is also expected to be 32 degrees, giving Verlander a Weather Rating of 100. The pitcher-friendly environment has historically been very good for pitchers, especially ones with comparable Vegas data and metrics:
The dilemma today and in most Coors slates is whether to pay up for pitching or jam in the Coors batters.
Values
If you plan on getting Coors exposure, Garrett Richards will need to be in consideration, particularly on DraftKings, where he is sporting a 92% Bargain Rating. He is covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players, so let’s focus on some other pitcher values.
A Coors Field pitcher isn’t typically considered most nights, but Jon Gray has historically been a decent value at home:
Gray might be the perfect tournament candidate and could also be considered in cash games. Since 2014, Gray has averaged 15.53 DraftKings points per game with a 63% Consistency Rating and minimal ownership. He’s sporting an excellent 8.5 K Prediction against an awful San Diego team without Wil Myers. The projected Padres lineup has a K rate of 27.7% against righties over the past 12 months along with a below-average .308 wOBA. The Rockies are the third-largest favorites on the slate (-177 moneyline odds), and the Padres’ implied total of 4.1 runs at Coors isn’t too intimidating.
Fastballs
If you’re really interested in loading up on bats, Miles Mikolas is $6,000 on FanDuel (90% Bargain Rating). Home favorite pitchers with similar salaries have typically been serviceable values:
The Cardinals have -138 moneyline odds, and the Brewers are implied for 3.7 runs. Mikolas also has a favorable hand-adjusted Park Factor of 74. He pitched 5.2 innings with five strikeouts and four earned runs a week ago on the road against the Brewers.
Dylan Bundy has a 63% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he could be a viable SP2. He’s off to a good start this season with a 0.69 ERA and 15 strikeouts in his first two outings. Bundy is a home favorite (-115 moneyline odds) with a 6.4 K Prediction, and this season the Blue Jays have a 27.7% K rate against righties (per FanGraphs).
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The 1-2-3-5 Rockies stack is the top four-man DraftKings group in the CSURAM88 Player Model:
As Matt LaMarca mentioned in Three Key MLB Players, Charlie Blackmon may be at reduced ownership after missing Sunday’s game due to back tightness. The Rockies currently own a slate-high implied total of 5.5 runs and Park Factor of 100. Nolan Arenado has obliterated left-handed pitching over the past 12 months with an elite .540 wOBA and .413 isolated power (ISO). He has typically been a safe investment at Coors, as he has historically averaged 10.87 DraftKings points per game with a +1.85 Plus/Minus at home. Trevor Story is projected to hit from the No. 5 spot, and although he has a high K rate against lefties (39.2% over the past 12 months) he owns an elite .404 wOBA and .328 ISO. His Statcast data are also off the charts with a recent average distance of 268 feet and exit velocity of 95 mph. Story’s Recent Batted Ball Luck (RBBL) of 57 suggests that he has been unlucky as of late. Historically, batters with similar metrics have averaged a +1.39 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
The top four-man stack on FanDuel in the CSURAM88 Player Model belongs to the Angels, who are implied for 4.8 runs, tied for the second-highest total on the slate:
The Angels face Doug Fister, who has allowed a lot of hard contact through his first two starts with an exit velocity of 93 mph and hard-hit rate of 40%. Mike Trout will undoubtedly be popular, and rightfully so. He’s a monster against righties with a .472 wOBA and .366 ISO over the past 12 months. Trout is off to an excellent start to the season with a +4.05 Plus/Minus on FanDuel through his first 10 games, and he has excellent Statcast data with a recent average distance of 232 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph and a massive 53% hard-hit rate. Justin Upton is sporting a +5.41 Plus/Minus on FanDuel and has been swinging a hot bat lately with four home runs in his past five games. His Statcast data is similar to Trout’s with a recent average distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 94 mph, and a 39% hard-hit rate. It’s an excellent overall spot for Upton, who has a .351 wOBA and .237 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months.
Other Batters
Danny Valencia stands out in our new Recent Batted Ball Player Model, as he’s sporting a recent average distance of 267 feet with an absurd 97 mph exit velocity, and he’s projected to hit in the No. 5 spot today for the Orioles.
We’ll need some cheap hitters if we’re looking to roster Coors batters or top-tier pitchers, and Michael Conforto has a 70% Bargain Rating on DraftKings: He has a .431 wOBA and .292 ISO against righties over the past 12 months, putting him on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO Differentials:
Joey Votto has been off to a slow start over his past eight games with a -5.16 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but at $4,200 he has a 70% Bargain Rating. His RBBL of 79 suggests that he’s been unlucky this season, and Votto hits right-handed pitching quite well with a .451 wOBA and .251 ISO. Opposing pitcher Ben Lively has allowed a fly-ball rate of 43% over the past 12 months.
Votto’s teammate Scooter Gennett is on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO Differentials of the past 12 months:
With Jesse Winker scratched, Gennett will be batting leadoff, and he has an outstanding .391 wOBA and .254 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months.
Per our Vegas dashboard, it’s worth noting that the Reds have the highest Team Value Rating (82) on DraftKings:
The Reds have seen some reverse line movement since the line opened, as their total has increased from 3.9 runs to 4.3 and the moneyline has shifted from +129 to +115. At the timing of writing, the Reds have received only 27% of the bets but 73% of the money, suggesting that sharp money is on the Reds.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Joey Votto
Photo Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports
