The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
We have a somewhat ugly three-game main slate today starting at 6 p.m. ET, so I’ll go game by game for this breakdown.
Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors (-11) | O/U: 210
Stud
Neither of these teams has anything to play for — the Raptors have already sewn up the top seed in the East while the Magic are in tank mode — leading to the resting of DeMar DeRozan (along with Jonas Valanciunas) for the Rapters and making it difficult to peg playing time for the Magic as well. Despite Toronto resting key players, they are still a large favorite, which means a blowout is still very possible.
It looks like Kyle Lowry will play, and he has forgiving matchup against DJ Augustin. Per our Trends tool, the Magic allow an average Plus/Minus of +2.22 to point guards projected for at least 24 minutes this season, the second-highest mark in the league. Lowry’s Opponent Rating on DraftKings for Sunday’s matchup is all the way up at +5.98. However, the Raptors are at home for this one, and Lowry has not been a crowd pleaser this season:
Lowry has also been an abysmal DFS play over the past month:
On the other side of this matchup is Nikola Vucevic, who is fresh off a one-game tanking absence. Vucci Mane played only 20 minutes his last time out, and we project him for just 22.5 minutes tonight. That gives him an extremely poor Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings even though he has a 99% Bargain Rating. He does average 1.27 DraftKings points per minute on the season, though, and expected to be one of the lowest-owned centers on the slate, so he may perhaps be worth a look in tournaments on the off chance he gets a few more minutes than expected.
Value
The slate is ugly, so you can usually count on seeing a few ugly plays rated higher than they normally would in our Models. CJ Miles fits that description Sunday. Miles has only hit value on FanDuel in two of his past 10 games with an average Plus/Minus of -3.60, but he projects for a good amount of minutes at the $3,500 minimum.
Pascal Siakam is also one of the top-rated players in our Models. Over his last 10 games, he’s averaged a +2.09 Plus/Minus and 80% Consistency on DraftKings. He has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where his salary has come down $900 since last week. With Valanciunas ruled out, Siakam projects as one of the highest-owned players on the slate.
Last time DeRozan was out, Delon Wright stuffed the stat sheet in 28 minutes. He along with Norman Powell, OG Anunoby, Jakob Poeltl, Lucas Nogueira, Miles, and Siakam should all see upticks in playing time with DeRozan and Valanciunas resting. Wright and Siakiam lead all players on the slate in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, while Poeltl and Miles are in the top eight. Powell is also tied for top-10 and has a salary of just $3,100, which is the cheapest of all the players just mentioned. Nogueira will start and costs $3,100 as well. He averages a 10.5-7.5-1.0 line with 4.5 combined steals and blocks in two starts this season.
Fast Break
Per our NBA On/Off tool, Serge Ibaka sees a 5.1-percentage-point bump in usage rate with DeRozan and Valanciunas off the floor this season.
Fred VanVleet has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on FanDuel of any player with sub-13% projected ownership, behind only Miles.
Mario Hezonja has been a better play on FanDuel than DraftKings over his last 10 games, averaging a +4.35 Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency on the former but a +2.34 Plus/Minus and 40% Consistency on the latter. With Aaron Gordon back and the Magic not as shorthanded tonight, he projects for only 27.7 minutes. Gordon, by the way, has the second-highest projected ceiling on the team behind Vucevic, but we’re projecting Gordon conservatively for 25.5 minutes.
Hezonja’s teammate Wes Iwundu is expected to be just as popular. Iwundu averages 34 minutes per game over his last two games, but is a low-upside play. His Consistency Rating is 60% on DraftKings over his last 10 games, but his average Plus/Minus is -0.56.
Utah Jazz (-9) at Los Angeles Lakers | O/U: 208
Stud
Rudy Gobert averages 35.0 fantasy points against the Lakers on DraftKings, where he has a 99% Bargain Rating at a salary of $7,900 compared to $9,500 on FanDuel. Despite the modest fantasy output against LA this season, Gobert’s Opponent Rating of +4.98 is the highest of any player in this game and is among the highest on the entire slate.
Donovan Mitchell averages slightly more DraftKings points against the Lakers this season (36.6). He’s been a profitable play of late, and as an added bonus, his salary has been dropping:
Julius Randle has the sixth-most projected DraftKings points but the third-highest projected ceiling in our Models. He also has a game-leading 11 Pro Trends. The Jazz have held him in check this season, however, limiting to an averages of 28.63 DraftKings points per game in two meetings.
Value
With Lonzo Ball (knee) out, Tyler Ennis has punt appeal. Ennis has played at least 24 minutes and scored at least 20 DraftKings points in three straight games and has hit value in four straight.
The point guard on the other side of this matchup, Ricky Rubio (hamstring), may sit as well. If he does, it would open up minutes for Royce O’Neale. O’Neale played 32 minutes and put up eight points, five rebounds, and three assists in 31 minutes last game with Rubio leaving early on. If Rubio plays, he’d be one of the top projected values on the slate.
Josh Hart has the top Projected Plus/Minus on both sites. He has a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he costs on $4,900 — $400 less than his price on DraftKings. Hart has played at least 33 minutes in three straight games and four of the past five, and has been a profitable play since making his return on March 30:
With Kyle Kuzma (ankle) ruled out, Hart should continue to be a strong play.
Fast Break
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has played 35-40 minutes in each of his past four games. He’s one of two players in this game with 10 or more Pro Trends (Randle).
Derrick Favors is worth a look tonight on the short slate. He’s got a +4.78 Opponent Rating on DraftKings and has been in the 28-32 minute range over his past four games.
Ivica Zubac has posted back-to-back Plus/Minuses above +9 on DraftKings and projects for only 2-4% ownership today.
Golden State Warriors (-13) at Phoenix Suns | O/U: 216
Stud
Kevin Durant has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. He’s posted a +2.18 average Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency over his past 10 games. He also scored 61.25 DraftKings points against these very Suns on April 1. KD is easily the top play on the slate, and with the value available he’s easy to afford.
Without Stephen Curry (knee) in the lineup this time, Durant should get more opportunities. He has the highest projected ceiling on the slate by nearly 20 points and projects to be the highest-owned player in this game.
Josh Jackson is questionable with a right quad contusion, and his status looms large. You literally could not have gone wrong playing him on FanDuel over the last 10 games:
Jackson is actually a better bargain on DraftKings, though, where he’s $7,800. Assuming he plays, he’ll have the second-highest ceiling in this game behind Durant.
Draymond Green has an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but his Projected Plus/Minus is negative on both sites. He’s averaged a -3.75 Plus/Minus and 40% Consistency over his past 10 games, and has only hit value in one of his last seven. He’s destroyed the Suns this season, though, averaging 48.7 FanDuel points and a +10.91 Plus/Minus.
Value
Danuel House has played at least 28 minutes in three straight games. With Jackson questionable and Phoenix already shorthanded, House projects for over 34 minutes Sunday. At just $4,300 on FanDuel, House has a Bargain Rating of 98% and is the top projected value on the slate.
Alex Len didn’t produce last time out but also has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel at a salary of just $4,600. He projects for only 22 minutes Sunday, but is still the second-best projected value behind House.
Shaq Harrison played 30 minutes last game and would also benefit from Jackson’s absence. He’s the top projected value in this game on DraftKings and has a ridiculous +7.86 Opponent Rating, which is the highest on the slate by over three points.
Dragan Bender has played 33 or more minutes in two of his past three games and projects for 31 Sunday. Bender has hit value in three straight games, posting a ridiculous +32.07 cumulative Plus/Minus over that span.
Fast Break
David West has the top Projected Plus/Minus of any player with single-digit projected ownership on DraftKings (on FanDuel it’s Miles).
Kevon Looney is projected for more ownership than West. Looney has played between 19 and 28 minutes for 12 straight games, hitting value on FanDuel in nine of them.
Klay Thompson has an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel. He’s fallen remarkable close to his salary-based implied points in every game as of late:
Quinn Cook continues to play big minutes with at least 34 in four straight games. He’s tied for the most projected minutes on the slate (36.5).
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Kevin Durant.
Photo credit: Kyle Terada — USA TODAY Sports.
