The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday’s slate features a nice 10-game main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel that starts at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
Today’s slate isn’t too top-heavy, as just one pitcher on FanDuel eclipses the $9,000 mark, but there’s a handful of intriguing options on this slate:
Charlie Morton is the priciest option on FanDuel and rightfully so: The Astros are the slate’s largest favorite (-250 moneyline odds), as they take on a Padres team that is implied for 3.3 runs. He’s excelled striking batters out with a 10.41 SO/9, and Morton has done well at limiting home runs with a 0.81 HR/9 over the past 12 months thanks to his 27% fly-ball rate and 26% hard-hit rate.
Morton is one of the safer options on the slate, as pitchers with comparable metrics and moneyline odds have historically been very consistent investments (per our Trends tool):
Given Morton’s spot on Sunday, he may be one of the highest-owned pitchers, especially on FanDuel, where he’s sporting a 98% Bargain Rating.
Jake Arrieta takes on a Marlins team whose projected lineup has struck out just 21.2% of the time against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months. However, that same Marlins team also has a slate-low weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .285. Arrieta has a paltry 5.4 K Prediction, but the Phillies have favorable moneyline odds (-180), and the Marlins are implied for a slate-low 3.2 runs. Pitchers with data similar to Arrieta’s have historically been decent investments with about half the ownership of the heavy moneyline favorites:
However, at $8,900 he’s not nearly the bargain Morton is for just $200 more.
Jameson Taillon is another pitcher priced near the top on Sunday, but he has a lowly K Prediction of 5.6 against a Reds team that has struck out just 22% of the time against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months but also has a bottom-five wOBA. While Taillon doesn’t have the strikeout upside of other guys in his price range, he does have a few factors in his favor. For instance, at PNC Park he has a hand-adjusted Park Factor of 85, the Pirates have favorable moneyline odds (-142), and the Reds are implied for a middling 3.5 runs.
Jose Quintana got throttled in his first start, posting a -20.42 Plus/Minus on DraftKings as the Marlins torched him for six earned runs through six innings. The projected Brewers lineup is one of the more K-prone batting orders in the league, striking out 26.9% of the time against lefties over the past 12 months. This could be a bounceback spot for Quintana, who sports a slate-high 7.9 K Prediction.
Mike Clevinger is covered in today’s Three Key MLB Players, so let’s get to the rest of the options.
Values
For $6,800 on DraftKings, Luke Weaver looks like an appealing SP2 candidate, as he’s sporting a 74% Bargain Rating. Even though Weaver is cheap, he has the slate’s third-highest SO/9 (10.59), and he’s tied with Quintana for a slate-high 7.9 K Prediction. The Cardinals are modest favorites (-149 moneyline odds), and the Diamondbacks are implied for a mediocre 3.4 runs. We have a small sample of pitchers priced that low in our database with comparable moneyline odds, metrics, and salaries, but historically they have provided solid value, albeit at very high ownership:
Jordan Montgomery has the second-highest Bargain Rating (59%) on DraftKings, where he costs $7,000. The Yankees are the third-largest favorite (-200 moneyline odds) on the slate, and although the Orioles are implied for a respectable 3.9 runs Montgomery is backed by a powerful Yankees offense with a slate-high implied total of 5.7 runs, giving Montgomery a good chance to pick up the win if he can put together a serviceable outing. He boasts a respectable 8.57 SO/9, and the projected Orioles lineup has struck out at the fifth-highest rate (26.2%) against lefties over the past 12 months. Montgomery also had elite Statcast data in his first start of the season with an average batted-ball distance of 161 feet, exit velocity of 88 mph, and a 16% hard-hit rate.
Given the favorable circumstances that each value pitcher has, rostering Montgomery and Weaver together on DraftKings is viable if you’re looking to have some of the more expensive bats on the slate. Clevinger and Morton each have a Bargain Rating of 1%, and you can roster Weaver and Montgomery for a combined $13,800.
Fastballs
Rostering Lance Lynn isn’t for the faint of heart, as he lasted just four innings in his first start for the Twins on April 2. Now he takes on a Mariners lineup with a low 12-month strikeout rate against righties (21.8%) and the second-highest wOBA (.358) on the slate. The appeal of Lynn is that he’s in a very pitcher-friendly environment with the wind blowing in from right field and a temperature expected to be around 28 degrees.
Reynaldo Lopez had a strong start to the season, going six innings with six strikeouts and just one earned run allowed against the Blue Jays. He’s not a high-strikeout pitcher, but the White Sox are modest -140 favorites, and he’s projected to have a pitcher-friendly temperature of 36 degrees.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into your daily fantasy lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on today’s slate (per the CSURAM88 Player Model) belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
The Twins are implied for 4.8 runs, the fourth-highest total on the slate. Brian Dozier was already talked about in today’s Three Key MLB Players, so I’ll highlight some of the other stacked batters. Miguel Sano has throttled lefties over the past 12 months with a .390 wOBA and .277 ISO. He also has elite Statcast data with an average distance of 263 feet, exit velocity of 96 mph, and fly-ball and hard-hit rates of 50%. Byron Buxton is off to a rough start with a -2.44 Plus/Minus on DraftKings, but he has an excellent .359 wOBA against lefties over the past 12 months, and his Recent Batted Ball Luck Score (RBBL) of 24 indicates that he’s been unlucky thus far. The Twins own a slate-high Team Value Rating of 87, but they will have to contend with cold weather.
The top four-man FanDuel stack in the Tournament Model belongs to the Chicago Cubs. They have the sixth-highest implied run total (4.6) and the benefit of playing in a domed environment:
The Cubs will face off against Chase Anderson, who has potential to strike out a reasonable number of batters as evidenced by his 8.81 SO/9 over the past 12 months. Anderson threw a one-hitter against the Padres on Opening Day, but in his second start the Cardinals tagged him for eight hits and three home runs. As a result, he has some atrocious recent Statcast data with an average distance of 230 feet, exit velocity of 92 mph, and 42% fly-ball rate.
Kris Bryant and his elite .412 wOBA and .266 ISO against righties over the past 12 months will look to take advantage of Anderson’s fly-ball tendencies, as he owns a year-long fly-ball rate of 41%.
Ian Happ sports a Bargain Rating of 95% on FanDuel and has crushed righties over the last year with a .376 wOBA and .303 ISO. The switch-hitting leadoff man is on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO Differentials:
Other Batters
Franciso Lindor boasts a .336 wOBA and .213 ISO against right-handed pitching over the past 12 months. He has started the season slowly with a -3.08 Plus/Minus over his past seven games, but he’s making excellent contact with an exit velocity of 93 mph and a 41% hard-hit rate. His RBBL Score of 31 suggests that he’s been unlucky. Historically, batters with comparable data have averaged a +1.63 Plus/Minus on FanDuel.
Mookie Betts might be heating up: He has 15-day/12-month distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit differentials of +24 feet, +5 mph, and +17 percentage points.
Yoan Moncada is another switch-hitter on the positive side of his wOBA and ISO Differentials:
He also has the benefit of batting leadoff and has been smashing the ball lately with a recent distance of 244 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and absurd hard-hit rate of 61% — all of which are above his 12-month average. He has a -0.79 FanDuel Plus/Minus over his past six games, but he may be due for some progression soon, as batters with comparable Statcast differentials have averaged a +2.12 Plus/Minus.
If you’re looking to add some power while saving your pennies, Marcell Ozuna has a Bargain Rating of 81% on DraftKings and owns a .387 wOBA and.261 ISO over the past 12 months against righties. He also boasts exceptional Statcast data with a recent average distance of 242 feet, exit velocity of 95 mph, and hard-hit rate of 47%. Batters with comparable batted-ball data and RBBL Scores (47) have averaged a +1.38 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Jordan Montgomery
Photo Credit: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports
