The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
As the regular season draws to a close, we have a 10-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET that features some studs in heated playoff races, but also some tanking teams offering value at multiple positions.
Point Guard
Stud
Kemba Walker (Bronx, stand up!) has seen his salary come down $1,700 in the past two weeks. Add daily fantasy lineups to ankles and Dell Curry’s all-time Hornets scoring record on the list of things Walker has broken lately — he sports a lineup-sinking -4.26 average Plus/Minus and 44% Consistency over the past month. That said, his performance against the Magic this year has been straight silly:
At $7,400, Walker has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where he’s $700 cheaper than on DraftKings.
Kyle Lowry is the other stud point guard on the slate. Like Walker, Lowry is also cheaper on FanDuel ($7,500) than DraftKings ($7,700) despite the latter’s higher cap. And, like Walker, Lowry is also mired in a funk, averaging a -1.32 Plus/Minus and 40% Consistency over the past month. Unlike Walker, though, Lowry has been inconsistent this season against his current opponent, the Indiana Pacers. After dropping 54 FanDuel points on them in late November, Lowry hasn’t cracked 30 against them since and averages only a modest +1.22 Plus/Minus despite the 54-point outburst. As I mentioned in my last breakdown, Lowry has been overvalued at home all season:
And it’s not just a one-season anomaly: He’s struggled to meet expectations at home going back to the 2014-15 season, with a Consistency Rating over 10 percentage points lower in the Air Canada Centre:
Value
The Suns have had seven players average at least 10 points per game for them this season, but only one will take the floor Friday. That leaves Tyler Ulis projected for the most minutes at the position (37.2) for tonight’s matchup against New Orleans after playing at least 36 in each of the past four games. He’s got a great matchup to boot, as the Pelicans’ backcourt combination of Rajon Rondo and Jrue Holiday have coughed up a +2.67 average Plus/Minus on DraftKings to point guards projected for at least 30 minutes, per the Trends tool. Ulis leads the position in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites as of this writing.
Fast Break
John Wall doesn’t want to play against teams that are not going to be in the playoffs, so Tomas Satoransky will get the start at point for the Wizards. Satoransky projects for over 33 minutes and has been solid but unspectacular in 20 games in which he’s been projected for at least 30 minutes this season, averaging 55% Consistency but an underwhelming +1.42 Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Terry Rozier has a 93% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where his salary is under $7,000 for the first time since March 14th. Rozier is coming off a March which saw him average 17.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in 33.4 minutes per game. With his salary at $6,800 on FanDuel, he’s one of the top values at the position on the slate.
Trey Burke projects for minimal ownership against Miami tonight. He quieted down last game but has still hit value on FanDuel in nine of his past 11 games; he’s scored at least 48 fantasy points in two of his past four.
Rajon Rondo also projects for minimal ownership but has a +3.86 Opponent Plus/Minus against Phoenix. He’s been inconsistent, but when he goes off he goes off, having posted three games with a Plus/Minus of +18.44 or more over his past nine.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Last time Victor Oladipo crossed the border to play in Canada, he dropped 65.25 DraftKings points on Toronto on Dec. 1st. In fact, playing well outside of Indiana has been a trend for the first-year Pacer this season:
DraftKings is definitely the better site to target the former second overall pick, as he has a 95% Bargain Rating on the site.
Value
Ben McLemore projects for nearly 30 minutes tonight for the shorthanded Grizzlies, who offer value at pretty much every position. It hasn’t happened often, but McLemore has crushed on DraftKings this season when projected for at least 27 minutes:
Reggie Bullock (ankle) had been offering DFS value as a wing for Detroit, and now Luke Kennard will step in and attempt to do the same. The 12th overall pick out of Duke projects for 30 minutes tonight, the highest projection he’s had all season. In a small sample of only four games when he’s been projected for at least 26 minutes, Kennard has gotten the job done, averaging a +7.82 DraftKings Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency.
Fast Break
Justin Holiday is another sub-$4,000 value option on both sites. With Denzel Valentine (knee) added to the long list of Bulls on the sideline, Holiday projects for 28 minutes tonight at Boston. He’s posted a middling +0.42 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in 56 games in which he’s been projected for 28 or more minutes. His Projected Plus/Minus is above +5.0 as of this writing, though, and the Trends tool lets us know that wings projected for Plus/Minuses in the +4 to +6 range who are under $4,000 have historically been profitable plays:
Bradley Beal came within one rebound and two assists of a triple-double on Thursday and now gets to put the offense on his back without Wall in the lineup. Beal has a 95% Bargain Rating on DraftKings but has averaged a dismal -5.27 Plus/Minus and 20% Consistency over his past 10 games. It’s also worth noting that Wall’s absence actually stymies Beal. While Beal’s usage rate goes up by a single percentage point with Wall off the floor, his DraftKings points per game drops from 39.14 to 35.92 with Wall out, per the On/Off tool.
Danuel House projects for 30 minutes for the Suns tonight. He’s returned good value in three straight games while playing over 24 minutes in each, and he’s been getting more involved in the offense:
Small Forward
Stud
There’s not much left to say about LeBron James from a basketball analysis standpoint; he’s one of the greatest players ever. So it just becomes a matter of figuring out when the best spots to play him are so you can get value on his gargantuan salary cap hit. Fresh off a 33-9-14 line in a thrilling comeback versus Washington, LeBron heads into the second night of a back-to-back in Philadelphia, and the Trends tool tells us there’s been no reason to shy away from him on on the second night of a back-to-back this season:
The Cavs are only a half game up on the 76ers for the No. 3 seed, so LeBron should continue to go hard tonight. He’s struggled to meet value on DraftKings on the road earlier this season — his average Plus/Minus at home is still 3.7 points better than his road mark — but he’s rebounded nicely since the start of February:
LeBron has been hovering right around 60% Consistency all season and averages a +4.74 Plus/Minus and 61% Consistency over the past month as the Cavs fight for playoff positioning.
Value
MarShon Brooks is one of only six players with a projected usage rate of 30% or higher tonight. Brooks, who had been out of the NBA since 2014, parlayed a 10-day contract into a multi-year deal with the Grizzlies by scoring at least 21 points in each of his three games with them on 24-of-42 shooting (57.1%). The shooting numbers will surely regress for the career 44.7% shooter, but he played 36 minutes for the Grizzlies last game and should get all the minutes he can handle again against Sacramento. Brooks is too cheap on both FanDuel ($4,800) and DraftKings ($5,200). Note that he’s eligible only at shooting guard on the latter.
Fast Break
Memphis’ other Brooks, Dillon Brooks, is a top value on FanDuel, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating at $4,500. Brooks has games of 32.2 and 46.2 FanDuel points in his past four.
Josh Jackson projects for over 35 minutes and a usage rate over 33% for the shorthanded Suns tonight against New Orleans. Look at these sexy game logs:
Jackson has failed to hit value only once in his past 11 games and missed it by less than a full point. He’s also crushed the Pelicans in two games this season:
We can’t expect his ownership to be that low this time, but it’s worth noting seven players eligible at small forward are projected for higher ownership than Jackson.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings for tonight’s matchup at Phoenix, but at $12,000 he’s still $500 more expensive than LeBron, which is tough to justify after looking at his home/road splits in the Trends tool:
Davis averages an eyebrow-raising +11.3 Plus/Minus in two games against Phoenix this season, but in typical Davis fashion he did it with 93 DraftKings points against them at home; when the teams met on the road, his Plus/Minus was a -13.82.
Value
Ivan Rabb has posted consecutive +8.69 Plus/Minuses on DraftKings with minutes in the mid-20s. With Marc Gasol (tank), JaMychal Green (knee), and Jarell Martin (ankle) all ruled out, Rabb may play his most minutes yet for the depleted Memphis frontcourt against his hometown Kings. Rabb has the highest Plus/Minus of any center on the slate as of this writing and is a cheap way to fill the center slot on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, Marquese Chriss has the top Projected Plus/Minus at the position. With the Suns in full-on tank mode, the eighth overall selection in 2016 has been taking advantage of his opportunities, especially over the past 10 games:
Chriss has scored in double figures in eight of his past nine games and pulled down at least nine rebounds in three of his past four.
Fast Break
At $6,700 on FanDuel, Kyle Kuzma has a 98% Bargain Rating. He goes up against Minnesota tonight, and with Brandon Ingram (concussion) and Lonzo Ball (knee) still out we should probably expect more of the same from Kuzma:
With ace defender Jimmy Butler (knee) expected to return tonight, though, you can see from our Matchups tool that Kuzma’s matchup is no walk in the park. Minnesota has held Kuzma to just 35.1% shooting in two games this season.
Ben Simmons hasn’t quite been able to live up to his lofty salary lately, hitting value on FanDuel in just two of his past eight games. He’s struggled against the Cavs this season to the tune of a -8.08 average Plus/Minus and 33% Consistency. (Keep in mind he’s eligible at point guard and small forward on DraftKings rather than power forward.)
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the top-rated players on the slate tonight in our Models for tonight’s matchup at the Lakers. He’s been tearing it up of late as the Wolves try to hold on to the No. 8 seed:
Butler’s return tonight for Minnesota could complicate things, though. Per our NBA On/Off tool, Towns averages 45.66 DraftKings points with Butler on the shelf but only 37.93 with him in the lineup. Towns has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.98 but has been more of a floor than ceiling play against the Lakers this season, finishing between 40.25 and 47.5 DraftKings points in all three meetings.
Value
With Alan Williams (knee) lost in the sauce and numerous other high-usage Suns on the sidelines, Alex Len should get a decent amount of minutes tonight against New Orleans. Len is affordable across the industry but especially on FanDuel, where he has a 98% Bargain Rating. He’s absolutely smashed when projected for at least 22 minutes this season:
Fast Break
Deyonta Davis projects for over 24 minutes for Memphis today at a DraftKings salary of $3,300, so like the rest of his unheralded teammates he deserves consideration on today’s slate.
Kyle O’Quinn has played 29 or more minutes in each of the past two games and projects for that many tonight against Miami. He has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and has posted 32.25 and 39.5 fantasy points in his past two games.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Marshon Brooks.
Photo credit: Jeff Swinger — USA TODAY Sports.
