Thursday night features a full slate of NHL action, with 12 games starting at 7:00 p.m. ET or later. There are plenty of opportunities to look for some potentially exploitable prop bets by leveraging our NHL Models and Trends tool as well as the Bet Labs database.
Here are five props I’m eyeing for games at 7:00 and 10:30 p.m. ET. All lines are from Bovada.
Islanders C John Tavares over 3.0 shots on goal (-120 at Bovada)
7:00 p.m. ET
We discussed the Islanders-Rangers game at length today on Inside the Lab, so unsurprisingly this line looks especially egregious for one of the league’s most high-volume shooters (98th percentile over the past month) in arguably the most shot-friendly matchup possible (99th percentile in shot attempts allowed). Over the past month, Tavares is averaging 3.86 shots per game and has reached three or more shots seven times in his last 10 games. In a plus matchup, he’s likely to do better than his monthly average.
Rangers C Mika Zibanejad over 2.5 shots on goal (-150 at Bovada)
7:00 p.m. ET
On the other side of this high-paced game, Zibanejad has averaged 3.15 shots over the past month (96th percentile), yet somehow his prop is set at 2.5 in a cupcake matchup against the Rangers (97th percentile in shot attempts allowed). To give some perspective: In this same game, Anders Lee’s shots on goal prop is also set at 2.5, and he currently averages just 2.21 shots per game (80th percentile). These players should probably have different shot expectations in the betting market. Of the two, Zibanejad provides much more value in this game.
Kings G Jonathan Quick under 28.5 total saves (-120 at Bovada)
10:30 p.m. ET
Over the past month, Minnesota has caused opposing goaltenders to accrue 27.3 saves per game (26 or fewer in nine of 15 games), and Los Angeles has averaged only 26.7 saves per game over that same time period. Quick’s incredibly low 23.78 Save Prediction in our Models leads the slate, and given the Wild’s reluctance to shoot (slate’s lowest Corsi For offense) this line looks high. Minnesota also owns the slates lowest Expected Corsi For, indicating that Quick is likely not to see a ton of work against a team on the second leg of a back-to-back on the road.
Wild G Alex Stalock under 28.5 total saves (-115 at Bovada)
10:30 p.m. ET
Attacking goaltenders with the under in the late game could be the play, as Stalock’s line against the Kings looks almost as inflated as Quick’s line against the Wild. Both teams are in the bottom five in Expected Corsi For, so we can project this game to be played at a slower pace with limited shot attempts. Stalock has a comparably pathetic 24.89 Save Prediction tonight, trailing only Quick for the fewest on the slate.
Wild W Mikael Granlund under 2.5 shots on goal (-120 at Bovada)
10:30 p.m. ET
Over the past year, Granlund has notably averaged 2.49 shots per game (87th percentile), but over the past month his shots have plummeted to 1.43 per game (50th percentile). Granlund has registered three or more shots in only three of his past 14 games, and — as previously detailed — the matchup against Los Angeles is considerably below average. This is a tough spot for Granlund to progress back toward his long-term mean, so if bookmakers are weighing his long-term shot totals too heavily, the under certainly makes some sense.
Pictured above: Mikael Granlund
Photo credit: Perry Nelson-USA Today Sports
