The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players.
Tonight we have a six-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET. A lot of teams are shorthanded and/or playing on the second night of a back-to-back, so I’ll use a heavy dose of our NBA On/Off and Trends tools to sort out the beneficiaries.
Point Guard
Stud
Kyle Lowry has averaged just a +0.27 Plus/Minus on DraftKings in three games against Boston this season. He’s also been grossly overvalued at the Air Canada Centre:
It’s not just a one-season thing, either. If we go back to 2014-15 (286 games total), Lowry’s +0.59 Plus/Minus and 51.7% Consistency at home both pale in comparison to his +2.18 and 57.6% marks, respectively, on the road. Perhaps he’s allergic to Drake?
Value
With Dennis Smith Jr. (knee) out along with many other starters, Jose Juan Barea and Yogi Ferrell should see an uptick in minutes and usage and are viable against Orlando. Barea has been reliable on DraftKings when projected for 24-plus minutes this season:
Ferrell figures to push for 30 minutes as well, but he hasn’t been nearly as profitable in these types of situations, averaging a -0.19 Plus/Minus and 37.5% Consistency when projected for 28-plus minutes. However, when Smith and the countless other missing Mavs are removed from the floor, we can see that Ferrell gets a nice bump in usage rate:
Fast Break
Tyler Dorsey played 38 minutes Tuesday as Atlanta used an eight-man rotation. He scored 18 points on 6-of-16 shooting (4-of-7 from 3), adding six rebounds, four assists, and a steal. Even at a projection of just under 28 minutes against Miami, Dorsey is one of the top-projected values at the position in our Models.
Dorsey’s teammate Isaiah Taylor also played 38 minutes Tuesday and projects for over 30 tonight. His salary on DraftKings shot up from $4,800 to $5,800 recently, but it’s back down to $5,200, giving him a 95% Bargain Rating on the site.
Tyler Johnson played 31 minutes Tuesday in the first night of a home-and-home against Atlanta, and he played nearly 29 the game before.
Shelvin Mack faces Dallas after dropping a 12-8-8 line on the Knicks in 28 minutes Tuesday. He has now played 24-29 minutes in five straight games. Despite exceeding salary-based expectations in seven of his past eight games, Mack’s salary of $4,300 has actually come down a bit since its high of $4,600 in that span.
Dejounte Murray has averaged a +0.29 Plus/Minus and 53.8% Consistency on DraftKings on the second night of back-to-backs, which doesn’t sound good until you compare it to his -1.37 and 34.9% marks in all other games. Murray has, however, averaged a +10.69 Plus/Minus in two games against the Lakers this season.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Jrue Holiday is your quintessential tournament play on DraftKings, where he’s got a 93% Bargain Rating for tonight’s ‘contest’ against Memphis. If you click on Holiday’s game log in our Models, you’ll see that in his last 15 games alone he’s had three games with a Plus/Minus of +16 or more and four of -12 or fewer.
Despite costing $900 less than Holiday on FanDuel, DeMar DeRozan has a projected ceiling that is more than five points higher, but DeRozan’s Consistency Rating (46.5%) is far worse than Holiday’s (61.3%). The Boston Celtics lead the NBA in defensive rating (103.6) and have the wing defenders necessary to slow down DeRozan, whom they’ve allowed to hit value in only one of three games this season.
Value
JJ Redick‘s usage rate has been 25.7% with Joel Embiid (eye) and Dario Saric (arm) off the floor, but teammate Marco Belinelli is cheaper and projected to play more minutes tonight at Detroit. Per the Trends tool, Belinelli has averaged a +2.86 Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency on DraftKings in the 30 games in which he’s been projected for 25 or more minutes.
Fast Break
At $5,400, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is actually cheaper than teammate Josh Hart on DraftKings. KCP would have played at least 35 minutes in nine straight games if not for an ejection last Friday. Hart looks like the cheap Lakers shooting guard to own against San Antonio, not Alex Caruso, a low-usage player who averages 0.60-ish fantasy points per minute. Caruso started Tuesday but played only 15 minutes and finished with three points and two assists. Hart played 35 minutes off the bench and finished with 11 points, four rebounds, three assists, two steals and a block. With his cheap FanDuel salary of $4,500, Hart has a 99% Bargain Rating.
Ben McLemore costs just $3,300 onDraftKings and projects for minutes in the mid-20s tonight for the shorthanded Grizzlies, but he’s been underwhelming in the 13 games in which he’s been projected for at least 24 minutes:
Wes Iwundu has cracked 20 DraftKings points just twice all season for Orlando despite playing at least 20 minutes 16 times, so it’s hard to get excited about him against Dallas no matter how cheap he is.
Small Forward
Stud
Jayson Tatum scored 38.5 DraftKings points against Toronto last Saturday, and at a reasonable $6,100 against Toronto he has a Bargain Rating of 86% on the site. His usage rate has been increasing for four straight months and was up to 23.8% for March. And he’s brought it on the second half of back-to-backs this season, averaging a +3.90 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency in 12 games compared to -1.80 and 35.9% in all other games.
Robert Covington has an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and has averaged a +7.15 Plus/Minus and 66.7% Consistency in three meetings with Detroit this season. Covington’s usage has increased by a team-leading 6.7 percentage points with Embiid and Saric off the floor, and he also has seed a two-point bump in rebounding rate.
Value
Reggie Bullock costs only $4,500 on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating at home against Philadelphia. He’s played 29-39 minutes in each of his last six games, thought it should be noted he’s averaging only 0.67 fantasy points per minute.
Fast Break
Mario Hezonja has posted a Plus/Minus of +7.35 or more on FanDuel in three of his past five games and exceeded expectations in four of his past five. The Croatian lottery pick from 2015 led Orlando with 19 points Tuesday and is a good tournament play against Dallas.
E’Twaun Moore has quietly exceeded expectations on FanDuel in nine of his past 11 games, but his salary is still only $4,500. His Pelicans host Memphis, and he’s been a more profitable play at home this season:
Rookie Dillon Brooks projects for nearly 30 minutes for shorthanded Memphis, but his lack of peripheral stats has led to poor daily fantasy value all season. Brooks has been projected for 28-plus minutes 52 times but has averaged just a -1.13 Plus/Minus and 38.5% Consistency on DraftKings in those situations.
Rudy Gay scored 33.6 FanDuel points in 24 minutes Sunday and then another 34 FanDuel points in 18 minutes on Tuesday. That type of production is likely to regress to his 1.07 FanDuel points-per-minute average on the season for San Antonio. That said, Gay warrants consideration in tournaments with his $4,500 salary, low projected ownership rate, and position-leading +3.53 Opponent Plus/Minus against the Lakers.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is the most expensive player on the slate tonight as he takes on Marc Gasol and some other random dudes parading around in Grizzlies jerseys pretending to be a legitimate NBA franchise. The blowout risk is palpable. Davis has some of the most lopsided home/road splits in the league this season — his average DraftKings Plus/Minus is +4.43 at home and -3.11 on the road — but not even those splits have helped in potential blowout situations. Davis’ average Plus/Minus is only 0.55 in the 14 home games in which New Orleans has been favored by six or more. New Orleans is a 10-point favorite as of writing, which is the largest margin by which Davis has been favored all season.
On the one hand, Ben Simmons has averaged a triple-double over his last 10 games (13.2-10.1-11.8) and has a Bargain Rating of 95% on FanDuel. On the other hand, he has fallen short of expectations in five of his last seven games and hasn’t been good on the second night of back-to-backs on the road:
Simmons is best suited as a tournament play for tonight’s matchup in Detroit. (Keep in mind that on DraftKings he’s eligible at point guard and small forward rather than power forward.)
LaMarcus Aldridge ramped his usage rate up to 33.4% in March after it hadn’t topped 29.4% in any of the previous five months. He has an 86% Bargain Rating on FanDuel and has averaged a +3.71 Plus/Minus over the past month, exceeding expectations 69% of the time. And his +3.88 Opponent Rating against the Lakers is the highest of all power forwards above $4,100, but Aldridge hasn’t been a profitable play on the second night of back-to-backs this season, averaging a -2.80 Plus/Minus and 36.4% Consistency compared to +1.78 and 62.1% in all other games.
Value
At just $3,300 on DraftKings, Ivan Rabb has a Bargain Rating of 93% and should be one of the most popular plays on the slate with JayMichael Green (knee) out for Memphis. Rabb is also a cheap way to fill the center slot on DraftKings.
Teammate Jarell Martin projects for 30 minutes and is a better play on FanDuel, where his Bargain Rating is 97%. Martin has averaged a +2.61 Plus/Minus and 75% Consistency in the 16 games in which he’s been projected for at least 28 minutes this season.
Fast Break
Ersan Ilyasova has seen a 2.2-point bump in usage and 2.6-point bump in rebounding percentage with Embiid and Saric out. At $5,600 on DraftKings, Ilyasova projects for over 30 minutes at Detroit and has put up a solid +2.51 Plus/Minus and 60% Consistency in the 15 games in which he’s been projected for at least 24 minutes this season. He’s an even better bargain on FanDuel at $5,000. Teammate Amir Johnson averages over 0.90 fantasy points per minute and costs under $4,000 on both sites. His projection of 26.5 minutes is his largest of the season.
With the Dallas front court missing Harrison Barnes (rest), Dirk Nowitzki (ankle) and Dwight Powell (knee) — who all combined for 78 minutes last night — German rookie Maxi Kleber projects for minutes in the high 20s tonight against Orlando. Kleber played 31 minutes last night at New York and costs just $3,800 on DraftKings. Despite the price and anticipated playing time, Kleber is no lock to hit value: In the 10 games in which he has been projected for at least 24 minutes, he’s exceeded expectations only 30% of the time, but he had games of 32.25 and 28 DraftKings points. He’s a low-usage player, and his rate has increased by only 0.1 points with Barnes, Dirk, Powell and Nerlens Noel off the floor, while his rebounding rate has actually decreased in that situation.
Kyle Kuzma has a 98% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, where his $6,500 salary for tonight’s matchup with San Antonio is $700 cheaper than his DraftKings salary despite the latter’s smaller cap. As long as Kuzma continues to push for 40 minutes nightly with usage rates in the low-to-mid 20s, he’ll have 50-fantasy-point upside.
Fellow Laker Julius Randle is more of a cash-game play. Look at how consistently he’s been within a few points of expectation on DraftKings:
As you can see, Randle has scored 37 or more DraftKings points in 14 of his last 18 games, with only two games above or below expectations by more than seven points. He’s a better play on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Aaron Gordon is mired in a 13-of-49 shooting slump and has hit value only once in his past six games on DraftKings — but be scored 64.25 fantasy points in that game, keeping him in the tournament conversation for tonight’s matchup with Dallas.
Pascal Siakam has exceeded expectation in five of his last six games for Toronto and has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he could be useful against Boston as a late-slate punt play or main-slate pivot.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond (stomach bug) missed shootaround this morning, so be sure to check for updates. Drummond has a 90% Bargain Rating on FanDuel, but while the Bargain Rating vs. Plus/Minus plot for all NBA players collectively looks like this …
… Drummond’s looks like this:
In the 22 games in which Drummond has had a FanDuel Bargain Rating of 50% or more this season, he has averaged a paltry -0.02 Plus/Minus. That means FanDuel has been correct when it has lowered Drummond’s salary relative to DraftKings and should probably have done so to a greater degree. Drummond simply hasn’t been able to live up to a five-figure daily fantasy salary, averaging a Plus/Minus of +0.11 and a Consistency Rating of 37.9% when his salary has been $10,000 or more. That said, the league’s second-leading rebounder (10.9 per game) has a nice matchup, especially with Embiid out. Drummond’s Opponent Rating of +3.89 is tops among centers on FanDuel. If Drummond is out, it makes sense not to pay up for the position on FanDuel, as all other centers above $6,500 have lowly Bargain Ratings of 13% or below.
Value
The absences of Embiid and Saric open up minutes for Richaun Holmes, who stuffed the stat sheet with 11 points, five rebounds, four assists and four blocks in 27 minutes last night. Holmes is projected for over 20 minutes tonight, and he’s smashed on DraftKings in the 12 games in which he’s been projected for at least that many:
The only worry with Holmes is that Johnson could cap his minutes if Drummond plays and coach Brett Brown wants to get a better defender on him.
Fast Break
At just $3,200, Salah Mejri pops on DraftKings in our Models. He projects for just under 20 minutes but has averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute. Per the Trends tool, the 7-foot-1 Tunisian has exceeded expectations in the three of four games in which he’s been projected for 18-plus minutes, though with an average Plus/Minus of just +1.44. He’s also listed as questionable with a knee injury and this is the second night of a back-to-back.
On the opposite end of the matchup is Nikola Vucevic, who has a 98% Bargain Rating on DraftKings. Dallas has allowed the second-most DraftKings points in the league to opposing centers over the past 10 games. He has been decent in the second half of back-to-backs this season (+0.71 Plus/Minus, 60% Consistency) and should be well rested after playing only 20 minutes last night.
Aron Baynes is another cheap center popping in the Models. He’s projected for around 22 minutes tonight in Toronto, but Baynes has failed to crack 20 DraftKings points in each of the last seven games in which he’s been projected for 20-plus minutes.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA News Feed.
Pictured above: Jose Juan Barea.
Photo credit:Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports.
