Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 6:49 pm ET.
White Sox (+165) at Blue Jays (-180) — 7:07 PM EST
CWS notable absences/replacements: None.
TOR notable absences/replacements: Devon Travis –> Yangervis Solarte. Russell Martin –> Luke Maile.
TOR Notes: Travis and Martin will rest Tuesday, so Solarte and Maile will bat fourth and eighth, respectively. The Blue Jays are currently implied to score 5.2 runs and are especially in play on DraftKings, where they have a slate-high Team Value Rating of 93. Overall, Granderson, Smoak, Solarte, and Grichuk form the slate’s fourth-highest rated four-man stack on DraftKings in the Bales Model. The whole Blue Jays lineup is set up well against Gonzalez, who ranks among the bottom-two pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and fly-ball rate allowed over the past 12 months. He’ll have his hands full with a Blue Jays lineup that has combined to strike out every .223 at bats over the past calendar year – the third-lowest mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
Phillies (+110) at Mets (-119) — 7:10 PM EST
PHI notable absences/replacements: Nick Williams –> Odubel Herrera. Maikel Franco –> Scott Kingery.
PHI Notes: Herrera and Kingery will bat fifth and sixth, respectively, for the Phillies’ matchup against the Mets. The Phillies currently boast the main slate’s third-lowest implied total, but Harvey isn’t exactly a great pitching option due to the poor weather and matchup. There is currently a 39 percent chance of rain, and the Phillies-Mets’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate. Harvey will face off against a Phillies lineup that has combined to post a .346 wOBA vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months – the second-highest mark in Tuesday’s main slate. Santana, Altherr, Hoskins, and Alfaro form the main slate’s third-best four-man stack in combined ISO.
NYM notable absences/replacements: Juan Lagares –> Brandon Nimmo (flu-like symptoms).
NYM Notes: Nimmo was scratched for the Mets’ matchup against the Cardinals Sunday due to an illness, but he’s back in the lineup and will lead off against the Phillies. He’s historically crushed righties, as Nimmo has posted a .377 wOBA and a .191 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, he ranks among the slate’s top-12 outfielders in both ISO and wOBA differential vs. righties. The Mets are set up well against Lively, who is one of just four pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate that have allowed fly-ball and hard-hit rates above 40 and 30 percent, respectively. Both pitchers should be approached with extreme caution, as there is currently a 39 percent chance of rain, and the Phillies-Mets’ matchup currently has the most hitter-friendly Weather Rating in Tuesday’s main slate.
Cardinals (+107) at Brewers (-116) — 7:40 PM EST
STL notable absences/replacements: Jedd Gyorko (strained right hamstring) –> Kolten Wong.
STL Notes: Gyorko has been placed on the 10-day disabled list, so Wong will start at second base and bat eighth against the Brewers. The Cardinals are currently implied to score a respectable 4.4 runs, but have a tough matchup against Anderson, who ranks second among all pitchers in Tuesday’s main slate in both WHIP and home runs allowed per nine innings over the past calendar year. Anderson is one of just two pitchers to allow an exit velocity under 88 miles per hour and a hard-hit rate below 25 percent over the past 12 months. Exposure to Anderson should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,000 price tag comes with a 97 percent Bargain Rating.
MIL notable absences/replacements: None.
Dodgers (-158) at Diamondbacks (+146) — 9:40 PM EST
LAD notable absences/replacements: Joc Pederson –> Matt Kemp. Yasmani Grandal –> Austin Barnes. Chase Utley –> Logan Forsythe.
LAD Notes: Kemp, Forsythe, and Barnes will bat fifth, seventh, and eighth, respectively, for the Dodgers’ matchup against the Diamondbacks. Puig and Bellinger are the only batters that have posted positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months in the Dodgers lineup. Bellinger always offers power upside considering he’s posted an average batted ball distance of 230 feet with an average exit velocity of 92 miles per hour over the past calendar year, but has a tough matchup against Godley. Overall, Godley ranks among the slate’s top-three pitchers in average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed. He has a strong 7.7 K Prediction and has allowed just 0.895 home runs per nine innings pitched over the past 12 months – the third-lowest mark in Tuesday’s main slate.
ARZ notable absences/replacements: Jake Lamb (left shoulder discomfort) –> Daniel Descalso.
ARZ Notes: Lamb is dealing with discomfort in his left shoulder, so Descalso will bat sixth for the Diamondbacks against Kershaw. It’s tough to get excited about anyone in a Diamondbacks lineup currently implied to score a slate-low 3.3 runs. Kershaw is the highest-rated pitcher on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the Bales Model, but accordingly carries the highest-projected ownership rate across the industry. He has a solid 7.5 K Prediction and will look to continue his domination as a road favorite. Overall, Kershaw has averaged 26.2 DraftKings points per game with a +3.54 Plus/Minus and a 65.4 Consistency Rating when favored on the road since 2014.
Rockies (-104) at Padres (-104) — 10:10 PM EST
COL notable absences/replacements: Ian Desmond –> Ryan McMahon.
COL Notes: Desmond will rest for the Rockies’ matchup against the Padres. McMahon will slide into the eighth spot, while Blackmon, LeMahieu, and Arenado will make up the top of the order. The Rockies don’t offer much value on DraftKings or FanDuel, as they have a Team Value Rating below 60 across the industry. Gonzalez is the probably their best option, as he’s posted positive wOBA and ISO splits vs. righties over the past 12 months. Overall, Gonzalez has posted a .356 wOBA and a .177 ISO vs. right-handed pitchers. He has a 63 percent Bargain Rating on FanDuel and a 0-1 percent projected ownership rate.
SD notable absences/replacements: Wil Myers (right triceps inflammation) –> Hunter Renfroe. Austin Hedges (tight upper back) –> A.J. Ellis.
SD Notes: Myers is dealing with inflammation in his right triceps and won’t suit up Tuesday. Renfroe will bat fourth against Freeland, who has a great matchup against a Padres lineup that has combined to post a slate-low .289 wOBA vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Exposure to Freeland should be focused on FanDuel, where his $5,600 price tag comes with a 98 percent Bargain Rating. Still, Renfroe is certainly in play given his historical success against lefties, as he’s posted a .441 wOBA and a ..368 ISO vs. left-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Overall, Renfroe ranks among the slate’s top-three outfielders in ISO and wOBA differential.
Pictured above: The Toronto Blue Jays
Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro- USA Today Sports
