The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features an eight-game main slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
Studs
With teams getting deeper into their rotations, the stud starting options on today’s slate are limited. Only four pitchers have salaries of at least $9,000 on DraftKings:
Jose Quintana is the priciest option on the slate, and he’s coming off a bit of a mixed 2017. He posted a career-high earned run average (ERA) of 4.15 between the White Sox and Cubs, but his Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 3.68 suggests he was slightly unlucky. He excelled in the strikeout department, posting a K/9 of 10.09. If he can continue to strike batters out at that rate while seeing some positive regression with his ERA, Quintana could be in line for a big season.
He’s undoubtedly in a fantastic spot on today’s slate vs. the Miami Marlins. He leads all pitchers with moneyline odds of -200 and an opponent implied team total of 3.3 runs, and pitchers with comparable marks in both categories have historically been awesome values (per the Trends tool):
He’s in the top strikeout spot as well, as the projected Marlins lineup owns a strikeout rate of 33.3% over the past 12 months. He should easily be the top-owned pitcher on the slate: He has an ownership projection of at least 41% on DraftKings. For more on Quintana, see today’s Three Key Players piece.
Gerrit Cole will make his debut for the Houston Astros, and he’ll be hoping that a change of scenery leads to a bounceback season. He posted a career-worst ERA of 4.26 in 2017, thanks mostly to his high HR/FB rate of 15.9%. He’ll almost undoubtedly win more games pitching for the Astros than the Pirates, but he’ll need reduce the number of home runs he allows if he’s to return to ace status.
Unfortunately, Cole’s situation today doesn’t look great. He’s taking on a projected Rangers lineup that has posted a .332 wOBA against right-handers over the past year, and Cole’s opponent implied team total (4.3) is a full run higher than Quintana’s.
The jury is still out on Sonny Gray heading into 2018. He posted an awful 5.69 ERA over 26 starts in 2016, but that number improved to 3.55 between the A’s and Yankees last season. Nevertheless, his FIP of 4.87 as a member of the Yankees was more than a full run higher than his ERA, so he could be due for some regression this season.
The matchup with the Blue Jays is another negative working against Gray on today’s slate. Their projected lineup has struck out in just 22.3% of at-bats against right-handers over the past 12 months, and Gray’s K Prediction of 6.1 is tied for merely sixth on today’s slate. It’s hard to consider him as even a guaranteed prize pool (GPP) pivot given his lack of strikeout upside.
Lastly, Jose Berrios showed flashes of dominance at times last season, but his production waned over the second half of the year. Even so, his K/9 of 8.83 over the past 12 months trails only Quintana’s among today’s stud pitchers, and his matchup vs. the Orioles could be a good one for strikeout purposes: Their projected lineup has a strikeout rate of 28.1% over the past 12 months. His opponent implied team total of 4.5 runs is tied for the fourth-highest mark on today’s slate, which will likely result in minimal ownership for GPPs.
Values
Luke Weaver turned in an extremely impressive rookie season, posting a 3.17 FIP and 11.04 K/9. Those numbers made him a solid fantasy asset in 2017:
He ranks second on today’s slate in both opponent implied team total (3.6 runs) and K Prediction (7.7), and his $8,000 salary makes him nearly $4,000 cheaper than Quintana. He should be a popular value option on the slate.
Jason Hammel is another intriguing option, but he should fly much more under the radar. His opponent implied team total of 4.1 ranks just fourth on the slate, but he should benefit from excellent weather conditions in Kansas City. Not only is it expected to be extremely cold at 31 degrees, but the wind is also forecast to be blowing directly in from center field at 10 miles per hour. Pitchers in comparable weather conditions have historically found success on FanDuel:
But there also a 33% chance for precipitation, so you’ll want to make sure this game actually plays before locking Hammel in. He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fastballs
Reynaldo Lopez: He benefits from the same weather conditions as Hammel, although he’s a slight underdog vs. the Royals. He was poor through eight starts last season — his K/9 of 5.72 over the past year is the worst mark on the slate — but he’s a former top prospect who had a 9.74 K/9 at the AAA level.
Michael Fulmer: The Tigers don’t figure to win many games this season, but games with Fulmer pitching could be the exception. He posted a 3.83 ERA in 2017 and made his first All-star team, and his 66% Bargain Rating of DraftKings is tied for the second-best mark on the slate.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on today’s slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Texas Rangers:
The Rangers’ implied team total of 4.3 runs ranks just eighth on today’s slate, but Cole’s struggles with the long ball have already been documented, and the Rangers are one of the most power-laden teams in baseball. All five of the stacked batters have ISO marks of at least .161 against right-handers over the past 12 months:
Joey Gallo is likely the most intriguing member of this stack. He was one of the top hitters in baseball last season from a Statcast perspective, but he spent the majority of the season batting in the bottom third of the lineup. He still managed to launch 41 home runs in 532 plate appearances and should see more opportunities this season batting second.
Stacking against Cole today will also likely be contrarian: None of the batters above has an ownership projection of greater than 5-8%.
On FanDuel, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Minnesota Twins:
They’re implied for 4.6 runs today vs. Orioles right-hander Kevin Gausman, who has a dreadful 1.54 WHIP over the past 12 months. He’s also struggled with home runs, allowing 1.44 per nine innings over the same time frame. The stacked batters represent nice values on FanDuel, with each player owning a Bargain Rating of at least 70 percent:
Logan Morrison leads the group with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent, and he should also benefit from playing in Baltimore. Oriole Park rewards left-handed batters with a Park Factor of 78, which is the top mark on today’s slate.
Other Batters
The Marlins bullpen has been extremely overworked early in the season. The relief pitchers were forced to go five innings on Saturday after going 11.2 innings on Friday, which gives the Cubs an Opponent Bullpen Rating of 98 heading into the final game of the series. If they can get past starter Dillon Peters early, they could feast. One batter in particular worthy of consideration is Albert Almora Jr., who is projected to occupy the leadoff spot. He has posted a .395 wOBA against left-handers over the past 12 months and is priced at just $2,100 on FanDuel.
The Astros posted nine runs yesterday vs. the Rangers and lead the slate today with an implied team total of 5.3 runs. They will undoubtedly be popular and with good reason: Jose Altuve, George Springer, and Alex Bregman own the three highest ceiling projections in our MLB Models. All three have a splits advantage against Rangers left-hander Mike Minor.
Jose Martinez has gotten off to a torrid start this season, posting a .750 OBP through his first two games. Those have come against two outstanding right-handed pitchers in Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom, and today’s matchup vs. Steven Matz should be much friendly for him. Martinez has destroyed left-handed pitching over the past year, posting a .539 wOBA and .441 ISO, and Matz allowed a .370 wOBA to right-handed batters in 2017.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
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Pictured above: Jose Quintana
Photo Credit: Dennis Wierzbicki-USA Today Sports
