The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook leads all players on the slate with 14 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his 86% Bargain Rating suggests he’s a better play than on DraftKings (18%). He’ll visit the Spurs, who rank No. 4 in both Plus/Minus (-0.86) and Consistency (42.9%) allowed this season to point guards projected for 24-plus minutes. Of course, Westbrook isn’t just any point guard, but our NBA Trends tool shows that the Spurs have yet to allow him to meet expectations in three games this season:
The same holds true over a larger sample: Gregg Popovich’s squad has held Westbrook to the fifth-lowest FanDuel Plus/Minus (-2.13) of any team since the start of the 2014-15 season.
Value
John Wall traveled with the Wizards to Detroit and could make his return from knee surgery tonight. Even if Wall has a minutes restriction (we have him projected at 26.3), he would be massively underpriced at the $3,500 minimum on FanDuel, where his Projected Plus/Minus is over 10 points higher than any other player’s on the slate.
Fast Break
On the other side of the Pistons-Wizards point guard matchup is Reggie Jackson, whose minutes have increased from 15 to 20 to 22 to 28 in four games since returning from an ankle injury. At $4,800 on DraftKings, Jackson has a Bargain Rating of 86% and serves as the top value there with Wall’s $7,100 salary taking him out of the running. Also working in Jackson’s favor is his schizophrenic home/road splits. In his Pistons career, Jackson’s average Plus/Minus of +3.7 at home is a ridiculous 5.1 points higher than his -1.4 road mark.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Victor Oladipo is the most-expensive shooting guard on the slate and has a rotten DraftKings Projected Plus/Minus, while Bradley Beal has failed to meet salary-based expectations in each of his past five games and eight of his past nine, leaving us with Khris Middleton. Middleton leads the position with 10 Pro Trends as the Bucks go on the road as an underdog to take on the Warriors — both situations in which Middleton has crushed all season:
Value
Justin Holiday has been abysmal of late, shooting 19-of-68 (27.9%) from the field over his past nine games. The always-on-point Phan Model foresees regression for Holiday against the Heat tonight, though, rating him the highest of any player under $4,400.
Fast Break
Only Middleton and Oladipo have more Pro Trends than Bojan Bogdanovic’s nine on FanDuel, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating at home against the Kings. The Bosnian sharpshooter’s average Plus/Minus this season is +1.4 at home compared to -0.8 on the road, and he’s a good value on FanDuel at $4,300 against the Kings.
Small Forward
Stud
Giannis Antetokounmpo has a 90% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate above $5,200. That’s the good news. The bad news is Giannis is the only top-10 DraftKings scorer this season with a negative average Plus/Minus:
The Greek Freak’s average Plus/Minus dips to -1.3 on the road, which is at least somewhat concerning as the Bucks travel to Golden State to take on a Warriors team that will get back two key frontcourt defenders in Draymond Green and Kevin Durant.
Speaking of Kevin Durant, he rates poorly in our NBA Models tonight. We have him conservatively projected for roughly two minutes below his season average of 34.7 in his return from a rib injury. He has also struggled to reach value this season at a salary above $10,000 on DraftKings, posting an average Plus/Minus of -1.68 in 30 games. We only have a two-game sample of KD without both Stephen Curry (knee) and Klay Thompson (hand) this season, but KD averaged a negative Plus/Minus (-1.4) in those games as well. That said, if KD is his usual self, his ceiling still rivals any player on the slate — he’s one of five players tonight with a projected ceiling of more than 60 fantasy points.
Value
Denzel Valentine has played at least 27 minutes for the Bulls in three straight games and has a stellar 99% Bargain Rating on FanDuel tonight against Miami. Valentine has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his past 10 games. He trails only Antetokounmpo in Projected Plus/Minus.
Fast Break
Recency bias will pull you away from Corey Brewer after he failed to eclipse 15.0 FanDuel points in back-to-back games, but he topped 30 in each of the previous four. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in six of eight games since entering the Thunder’s starting lineup and is an intriguing tournament option priced in the $4,000 range against the Spurs.
Power Forward
Stud
If LaMarcus Aldridge gives it a go tonight against the Thunder, his recent play makes a strong case for him to be the top power forward option on the slate. Since back-to-back single-digit efforts four weeks ago, Aldridge has put the Spurs on his back as they fight for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs, exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel in seven of nine games before leaving with a knee contusion on Tuesday:
The other two options are Blake Griffin against the Wizards and Draymond Green, who is returning from injury, against the Bucks. Griffin has a FanDuel Bargain Rating of 90% and leads all power forwards with 13 Pro Trends. Per our NBA On/Off tool, Green has seen a usage bump of 3.0 percentage points overall with Steph and Klay off the floor, but that disappears completely with Durant on the floor (-1.0).
Value
The Bulls will be without forwards Lauri Markkanen (rest) and Cristiano Felicio (lower back soreness) tonight at Miami, thrusting Noah Vonleh and Bobby Portis into minute projections over 30 each. In fact, Vonleh and Portis are the top-two players on the entire slate in Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings.
Fast Break
Only Vonleh and Portis have a higher Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings than Skal Labissiere against the Pacers. The lanky second-year man out of Kentucky has played right around 30 minutes for the Kings in each of the past three games, producing above salary-based expectations each time — just like he’s done in nine of his past 13 games overall.
Center
Stud
Andre Drummond has the third-highest projected ceiling on the slate, but his salary has caught up to his production lately. Over the past month, Drummond’s Consistency Rating is down over 10 percentage points compared to his season-average. With injuries to Bulls big men opening up value at the position, Drummond is best used as a tournament play. He went for over 55 FanDuel points in each of his past two games against the Wizards this season after going for 28.4 in the first meeting.
Value
With Markkanen and Felicio out for Chicago, Robin Lopez now projects for 24 minutes against Miami and is by far the top value on the slate among non-PF-eligible centers.
Fast Break
Kosta Koufos leads all centers on FanDuel with 11 Pro Trends. Koufos is projected for only 17 minutes yet has a higher Projected Plus/Minus than six centers priced above him. With projected ownership in the two to four percent range, Koufos is worth exploring as a tournament play versus the Pacers.
Pictured above: Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Photo credit: Kim Klement, USA TODAY Sports.
