Baseball is back! Check back here throughout the day for updated blurbs as teams confirm their lineup. We’ll keep you updated on some of the day’s highest-impact trends by utilizing our Models and Vegas dashboard. Projected and confirmed lineups for every game can be found on our MLB Daily Lineups page.
Lines updated as of 6:39 pm ET.
Yankees (-140) at Blue Jays (+129) — 7:07 PM EST
NYY notable absences/replacements: Aaron Hicks (side) –> Billy McKinney
NYY Notes: The Yankees placed Hicks on the 10-day disabled list with a strained right intercostal muscle. McKinney will make his major league debut and bat seventh. McKinney demonstrated his power in spring training with five home runs and has a near-minimum price tag on DraftKings for a Yankees lineup currently implied to score 4.6 runs, tied for the third-highest mark on Friday’s main slate. Sanchez is hardly a pitcher the Yankees should fear, as he ranks among the slate’s bottom-five pitchers in both WHIP and home runs allowed per nine innings over the past 12 months. Judge, Stanton, Gregorius, and Sanchez form the slate’s best four-man ISO stack vs. right-handed pitchers.
TOR notable absences/replacements: Kendrys Morales –> Yangervis Solarte
TOR Notes: Donaldson will work as the designated hitter due to a case of ‘dead arm.’ Solarte will slide in for Morales at No. 5 and look to continue to mash righties. Overall, Solarte has team-high marks in both wOBA and ISO differential vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Tanaka is one of just two pitchers on the slate who have allowed over 1.8 home runs per nine innings pitched. He’s averaged 4.07 fewer DraftKings points per game with a -4.4 Plus/Minus differential on the road since 2014.
Cubs (-196) at Marlins (+180) — 7:10 PM EST
CHC notable absences/replacements: Ian Happ –> Albert Almora
CHC Notes: Almora will join Schwarber and Zobrist in the outfield and lead off against the Marlins southpaw. Almora is the top-rated outfielder on DraftKings in the Bales Model and currently has a moderate 5-8 percent projected ownership rate. He has the sixth-best wOBA differential vs. lefties among the main slate’s outfielders and forms the slate’s highest-rated four-man stack alongside Bryant, Rizzo, and Contreras. Smith allowed 16 earned runs in just 18.2 innings pitched with the Yankees last season.
MIA notable absences/replacements: Cameron Maybin –> Garrett Cooper
MIA Notes: Cooper again draws the start over Maybin in right field and will bat sixth. The Marlins don’t offer much upside as a whole given their implied total of just 3.5 runs and combined wOBA of .281 vs. right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months — the second- and third-worst marks on Friday’s main slate, respectively. Hendricks ranks among the slate’s top-three pitchers in both average batted ball distance and ground-ball rate allowed over the past 12 months. Exposure to Hendricks should be focused on FanDuel, where his $8,200 price tag comes with a 94 percent Bargain Rating.
Phillies (-105) at Braves (-103) — 7:35 PM EST
PHI notable absences/replacements: Maikel Franco, Nick Williams –> Scott Kingery, Odubel Herrera
PHI Notes: Kingery and Herrera will make their respective career and season debuts in a Phillies lineup currently implied to score 4.5 runs. Hernandez, Santana, Herrera, and Altherr make up the main slate’s fourth-highest rated four-man stack against a righty on DraftKings, and each carries a projected ownership rate of just 5-8 percent. Still, the Phillies carry a fairly low floor considering they’ve combined to strike out every .281 at bats over the past 12 months — the third-highest mark on Friday’s main slate. Foltynewicz is one of just five pitchers with a K Prediction higher than seven.
ATL notable absences/replacements: Tyler Flowers –> Kurt Suzuki
ATL Notes: The Braves currently boast a slate-high Team Value Rating on DraftKings for their matchup against the Phillies. Flowers has been placed on the 10-day disabled list due to a strained left oblique. Suzuki will bat fifth, but he isn’t a great option against the righty Pivetta given he’s posted negative wOBA and ISO splits vs. right-handed pitchers over the past calendar year. Inciarte, on the other hand, boasts positive historical splits against righties and is the fourth-highest rated batter in the Bales Model. Estimated wind gusts of nine miles per hour out to center don’t bode well for Pivetta, who ranks among the slate’s bottom-two pitchers in average batted ball distance and exit velocity allowed over the past 12 months.
Angels (-104) at Athletics (-104) — 10:05 PM EST
LAA notable absences/replacements: None
OAK notable absences/replacements: Matthew Joyce –> Jake Smolinski
SD Notes: Joyce will rest against the Angels southpaw, so the Athletics will have just one lefty bat in their starting lineup. Smolinski will make his season debut and bat fifth. He’s set up well considering his status as the A’s only hitter with positive ISO and wOBA splits vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. Overall, Smolinski’s .474 wOBA against lefties is the third-highest mark among all outfielders in Friday’s main slate. He has a good matchup against Tyler Skaggs, who has posted the fourth-worst marks among all pitchers in Friday’s main slate in both average batted ball distance and fly-ball rate allowed over the past calendar year. The Athletics currently boast the second-highest DraftKings Team Value Rating in Friday’s main slate.
Giants (+147) at Dodgers (-160) — 10:10 PM EST
SF notable absences/replacements: None
LAD notable absences/replacements: Joc Pederson –> Matt Kemp
LAD Notes: Kemp will bat sixth and start in left field against the Giants despite Pederson’s historical success against righties. The Dodgers aren’t in a great spot with a mediocre implied team total of four runs against righty Johnny Cueto, who has averaged 20.3 DraftKings points with a 54 percent Consistency Rating in 11 starts against the Giants’ division rival since 2014. Overall, the Dodgers are tied with the Marlins for the third-worst Team Value Rating on DraftKings in Friday’s main slate. Chris Taylor is the Dodgers’ highest-rated batter in the Bales Model, and he carries a low 2-4 percent projected ownership rate with a solid 76 percent Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Brewers (-120) at Padres (+111) — 10:10 PM EST
MIL notable absences/replacements: Eric Thames –> Domingo Santana
MIL Notes: Thames will sit out against the Padres southpaw in favor of Santana, who has posted a .379 wOBA and a .216 ISO vs. left-handed pitchers over the past 12 months. The Brewers are currently implied to score 4.3 runs against Lucchesi, who will make his major league debut in less than ideal conditions. Overall, the Padres-Braves’ Weather Rating is tied for the worst mark in Friday’s main slate.
SD notable absences/replacements: Chase Headley –> Cory Spangenberg
SD Notes: Spangenberg will bat seventh for the Padres’ matchup against the Brewers Friday. None of the Padres bats offer a ton of value, as they boast a below-average Team Value Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Chacin has averaged a 1.3 WHIP and 7.8 K/9 over the past 12 months, but offers a mediocre 5.9 K Prediction. He’ll look to at least continue to limit big hits, as he ranks among the slate’s top-four pitchers in average batted ball distance, exit velocity, and hard-hit rate allowed over the past 12 months.
Pictured above: Gary Sanchez and Giancarlo Stanton
Photo Credit: Nick Turchiaro- USA Today Sports
