The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Baseball is back! FanDuel and DraftKings are kicking off the festivities with a three-game early slate starting at 12:40 p.m. ET. The main slate for both sites starts at 3:05 p.m. ET, with FanDuel offering 11 games and DraftKings offering eight games.
Pitchers
Studs
Opening day is unlike any other slate that we’ll see all season. Each team is starting its top pitcher, so there are unsurprisingly a ton of stud arms to choose from. Five pitchers have salaries of at least $10,000 on FanDuel:
The group is headlined by Clayton Kershaw, who is coming off yet another stellar season. He posted an ERA of 2.31 and a K/9 of 10.39, and his average batted ball distance of 197 feet is among the top marks on today’s slate. He leads all pitchers with moneyline odds of -277 and an opponent implied team total of 2.6 runs, and pitchers with comparable Vegas data have historically crushed (per the Trends Tool):
Even so, there are tons of pitchers to choose from today; we can afford to be a little picky, and Kershaw does have some concerns. His K Prediction of 6.6 is mediocre given his salary and tied for just 12th on the day. He’s also taking on the San Francisco Giants, who figure to be much improved this season against left-handed pitching. This offseason they added Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutchen, both of whom have historically destroyed left-handed pitching. The projected Giants lineup has posted a wOBA of .329 and strikeout rate of just 22.5% over the past year against southpaws.
Chris Sale might be the preferred option at the position given his massive strikeout potential vs. the Rays. He absolutely dominated them over six starts last season:
He recorded at least eight strikeouts in all six of those contests and tallied at least 12 strikeouts in four of them. Sale leads all pitchers with a K Prediction of 9.8, and pitching in Tampa also rewards him with one of the top Park Factors of the day (83). Sale should dominate the ownership on DraftKings with Kershaw and Corey Kluber unavailable: He has a current ownership projection of 41-plus%.
As for Kluber, he was unarguably the top pitcher in daily fantasy baseball last season. He led all pitchers with an average of 49.97 FanDuel points per game, and his average Plus/Minus of +13.68 was the top mark by a significant margin:
Nevertheless, he could be slightly contrarian on FanDuel, where he trails Sale and Kershaw with his ownership projection of 13-16%. He doesn’t have a great matchup vs the Mariners — their projected lineup had a wOBA of .335 and strikeout rate of just 22.1% against righties last season — but Kluber is still second on the slate with moneyline odds of -165 and a K Prediction of 8.8.
The pitching isn’t quite as robust on the early slate, but there is a trio of options that stands out. Jon Lester gets to open the season against the Miami Marlins, who absolutely gutted their roster this offseason. He leads the slate with moneyline odds of -194 and a K Prediction of 7.6 and will likely be the most popular option.
The other two options are facing each other in Noah Syndergaard and Carlos Martinez. Syndergaard is probably the most talented option on the early slate but is also a bit of a wildcard after missing most of last season with a torn lat muscle. He is a slight -133 favorite vs. the Cardinals, and his K/9 of 10.17 is the top mark on the early slate. Martinez is only a notch behind Syndergaard with a K/9 of 9.66, and his $7,900 salary on FanDuel makes him significantly cheaper. His Vegas data are obviously not as impressive given that his team is an underdog, but he could be a better value at his current price point.
Values
The number of value options on today’s slate is obviously limited given the sheer volume of studs. However, there are a few options that deserve consideration.
Garrett Richards made just six appearances and tallied only 27.2 innings last season, but his results over that time frame were extremely impressive. He posted an ERA of 2.28 and a K/9 of 8.78, which provide some optimism if he can stay healthy this season. His numbers don’t stand out in any one particular category on today’s slate, but he has solid marks across the board: -120 moneyline odds, 6.8 K Prediction, 4.1 opponent implied team total, and 80 Park Factor. He has the potential to be one of the top values of the day on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Danny Duffy is one of the more intriguing options on today’s slate. He looked like he was on his way to becoming an elite pitcher two years ago, posting a 3.51 ERA and 9.42 K/9, but he regressed in both areas last season. If he can regain his old form, he’s in an excellent spot today against the White Sox. Their projected lineup has a splits-adjusted strikeout rate of 28.9 percent — the worst mark on the slate — and Duffy is a solid -153 favorite.
Fastballs
Luis Severino: He took a major step forward last season, averaging a Plus/Minus of +5.51 over 30 starts on DraftKings, but he remains priced at a discount compared to the top tier of pitchers. He could be one of the more undervalued options on today’s slate.
Patrick Corbin: He’s available only on the FanDuel main slate, but his K Prediction of 9.7 trails only Sale’s. There have been only 10 comparably priced pitchers on FanDuel with a K Prediction of at least eight, and they’ve posted an average Plus/Minus of +6.48.
Notable Stacks
With the Lineup Builder, its easy to incorporate stacks into DFS lineups. The top five-man DraftKings stack on the main slate (per the Bales Model) belongs to the Kansas City Royals:
The Royals’ implied team total of 5.0 runs is tied for the second-highest mark on today’s slate, yet only one of the stacked batters has a salary greater than $3,800. As a result, the Royals own the highest Team Value Rating on the slate, which could be important since most people will likely pay up at pitcher. They get to face James Shields, who was an absolute gas can last season: His HR/9 of 2.13 is the worst mark on today’s slate.
Mike Moustakas is highlighted in today’s three key players piece, so let’s focus on some of the other stacked batters instead. Whit Merrifield is the priciest option of the group at $4,300, but he offers arguably the most upside of the group given his ability to steal bases. He’s averaged 0.22 steals per game over the past year, which is the highest mark on the DraftKings main slate. Historically, batters with a comparable implied team total, stolen base average, and lineup spot have posted a Plus/Minus of +1.20.
Jorge Soler is the big wildcard for the Royals. He was a disaster last season, posting a wOBA of just .216 and ISO of .070, but he has shown big power at the MLB level previously. He displayed some of that power this spring, slugging six home runs and five doubles in 61 at-bats, which makes him intriguing at just $3,000.
On the early slate, the top four-man FanDuel stack belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates:
The Pirates have a slate-high implied team total of 5.0 runs, so they’ll likely be one of the top targets on the early slate. If you do choose to stack them in a conventional manner, you’ll likely need to be more contrarian than usual with the rest of your roster. The above stack is extremely affordable — none of the batters is priced above $2,700 — so you’ll have maximum flexibility with the other spots in your lineup.
Adam Frazier will bat leadoff for the Pirates and is currently priced at the bare minimum ($2,000). Targeting min-priced leadoff hitters on offenses with an implied team total of 4.5-5.5 runs has historically provided awesome value:
He’s someone who should be on your radar even if you’re not stacking him with his teammates. Unfortunately, it looks like you’ll have to monitor the weather forecast prior to this game: It currently leads the slate with a 73% chance of precipitation.
Other Batters
Joey Gallo was one of the most imposing hitters last season from a Statcast perspective. He posted a batted ball distance of 245 feet and was tied with Aaron Judge for the top mark among all players. Unfortunately, he spent the majority of the season batting in the bottom third of the lineup, but he is currently slated to occupy the second spot on opening day. He does have a difficult matchup with Justin Verlander, but Gallo is someone who should offer a lot of value this season if he continues to bat near the top of the lineup.
Most people will avoid the Rockies on today’s slate since they’re not playing at Coors, which could mean that Nolan Arenado flies under the radar. He posted a wOBA of .537 and ISO of .423 against lefties over the past season, and Chase Field has historically been almost as friendly for hitters as Coors.
Is Rhys Hoskins for real or just a flash in the pan? He posted an Upside Rating of 32 percent last season on FanDuel, thanks in part to clubbing 18 home runs in just 50 games at the big league level. He followed that up with five home runs in 52 at-bats this spring, suggesting that his power could be legit.
Good luck on today’s slate, and be sure to check out The Action Network if you’re looking for more baseball coverage!
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Clayton Kershaw
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas- USA Today Sports
