This series uses the FantasyLabs Tools to analyze three key MLB players in the day’s slate.
Chris Sale: Pitcher, Red Sox
Ahhhhh, Opening Day is finally here. With the first day of games there is no shortage of aces. Strikeouts are king in MLB DFS, and Sale has a slate-high K Prediction of 10. The Rays own a slate-low 3.1-run implied total and could struggle to get their offense going as their projected lineup has a .277 weighted on-base average (wOBA) — the second-worst mark on the slate. Historically, pitchers with Vegas data and metrics similar to Sale’s have averaged 23.15 DraftKings points per game with a +2.15 Plus/Minus and a 64.9 percent Consistency Rating (per our Trends tool):
Those pitchers have also garnered massive ownership, and with Max Scherzer off the slate due to the Nationals’ postponement Sale’s guaranteed prize pool (GPP) ownership could exceed the cohort’s 41.6 percent average. Pro subscribers can review ownership shortly after lock in our DFS Ownership Dashboard.
Mike Moustakas: Third Baseman, Royals
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters. The Royals are currently implied for 5.1 runs against James Shields and the White Sox. Per our lineups page, Moustakas will hit third for the Royals:
Last season, Moustakas sported an above-average wOBA of .343 against right-handed pitching and an elite .261 isolated power (ISO). Moustakas has the potential for a big game Thursday as he hit 29 of his 38 home runs against right-handed pitchers in 2017 (90:29 for his career), and Shields is sporting a slate-worst 2.128 HR/9 dating back to last season.
Chris Davis: First Baseman, Orioles
Per our Vegas Dashboard, the Orioles are currently implied for 5.0 runs, which is the third-highest total on the slate. As one of three teams with an implied run total of at least 5.0, the Orioles may be an intriguing target, especially since they have the second-best Team Value Rating on the slate.
Davis struck out a lot last year with a split-adjusted .418 SO/AB against righties, but he still sported a .329 wOBA and .244 ISO. In fact, his .123 ISO Diff is the fifth-highest mark on the slate among all first baseman. Per our Trends tool, batters comparable to Davis in games with similar run totals have historically averaged 8.44 DraftKings points per game. He has a plus matchup against Jake Odorizzi, who has one of the worst batted ball profiles among pitchers on this slate. Last season, he allowed an average batted ball distance of 223 feet, an exit velocity of 92 miles per hour, and a fly ball rate of 46 percent. Odorizzi trails only Shields on Thursday’s main slate with his 1.934 HR/9. Davis is likely a boom-or-bust option.
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our industry-leading DFS-focused news blurbs.
Pictured above: Chris Sale
Photo Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
