The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Jeff Teague has the best matchup at the position today versus the Atlanta Hawks, who rank just 23rd in defensive efficiency — a big reason why the Timberwolves have an implied team total of 116 points. Teague also has an excellent individual matchup, with the Hawks allowing an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.33 to point guards on DraftKings. Teague has seen a nice bump in production since the knee injury to Jimmy Butler, averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute over the past month. With Derrick Rose not expected to play, Teague could see a few additional minutes, and he’s been priced down to just $7,000 on DraftKings on today’s slate, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Value
Today’s slate is absolutely loaded with value point guards. Damian Lillard (personal) will miss today’s contest for the Blazers, which means that Shabazz Napier will likely enter the starting lineup. Our NBA On/Off tool shows that Napier has been a tremendous value this season in the seven games he’s played without Lillard:
Napier is dirt cheap across the industry and is close to a must-play in cash games.
The Hawks are down their top two point guards, which could result in a huge workload for Isaiah Taylor. He’s averaged a respectable 0.78 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and is projected for roughly 32 minutes in our NBA Models. That combination of production and playing time make him an excellent value at just $3,600. Pairing Taylor and Napier together is a viable strategy in all formats.
Tyler Ulis also deserves some love. He has gone for at least 31 DraftKings points in two of his past three games and has an excellent matchup with the Clippers. He should continue to see a boost in playing time given the Suns’ short-handedness due to injury.
Fast Break
Andrew Harrison is questionable for the Grizzlies wrist and shoulder injuries, but could be in a position to carry a massive workload if he suits up. Tyreke Evans (personal) remains out, and Harrison averages 0.89 FanDuel points per minute with Evans and Mike Conley off the floor this season. Harrison has played at least 34 minutes in each of his past two contests and remains affordable at $5,500 on FanDuel.
Terry Rozier is in an intriguing spot today on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to just $6,900 and has averaged 38.75 DraftKings points per game with both Kryie Irving and Marcus Smart out of the Celtics lineup. Unfortunately, they have quite possibly the worst matchup imaginable against the Utah Jazz, resulting in a slate-low implied team total of 93.25.
Shooting Guard
Stud
CJ McCollum should also get a bump for the Blazers with Lillard out. McCollum has seen a usage bump of 4.3% in games without his star running mate, posting an average FanDuel Plus/Minus of +5.20. The matchup with the Grizzlies isn’t ideal — they’ve played at the slowest pace in the league this season — but McCollum still has a respectable Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.37.
Value
Devin Booker (hand) did not practice yesterday and will not suit up today for a Suns team that is playing for nothing but draft positioning at this point. Troy Daniels has played at least 31 minutes in three of his past four games and has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.97 versus the Clippers. In fact, Suns-Clippers should be one of the best games of the day for DFS purposes (assuming it stays competitive), as both teams rank in the top six in pace this season, and the over/under of 223 is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Fast Break
On the other side of the aforementioned matchup, Lou Williams has one of the top matchups as well. His Opponent Plus/Minus against the Suns is +3.51 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93%. Though his results have been a bit inconsistent recently, Williams has exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his past six games.
D’Angelo Russell is a borderline-elite option today on DraftKings. He owns arguably the top matchup of the day against the Orlando Magic, who have been shredded by opposing guards all season to the tune of an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.09 on DraftKings, where Russell has a Bargain Rating of 97% on today’s slate. He probably wont see more than 28-30 minutes, but he’s averaged a stout 1.20 DraftKings points per minute over the past month.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James busted badly yesterday versus the Heat, scoring just 33 DraftKings points in 38 minutes of playing time. The Cavs were held to just 79 points as a team, but today’s matchup against the Hornets should be much more favorable. The Cavs are implied for 112.75 points, which represents a slight increase when compared to their season average (110.6). The Hornets could also be down their best perimeter defender in Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, who was absent from shootaround due to food poisoning. It will be hard to pass up on LeBron for cash games — especially if MKG can’t go — given the amount of value that available on today’s slate. LeBron is especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $11,600 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 97%.
Value
Evan Turner will likely garner some attention on today’s slate given the injury to Lillard. He played 36 minutes yesterday versus the Pelicans and could be asked to carry more playmaking responsibilities tonight. That said, Turner has averaged only 17.0 DraftKings points per game in seven games without Lillard this season, so he’s far from a lock. The value point guards seem like much stronger bets at their respective salaries.
Fast Break
Josh Jackson has been the man for the shorthanded Suns recently, averaging 1.02 FanDuel points per minute while playing over 39 minutes in each of his last two games. His 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel are tied with LeBron for the most at the position, and his matchup with the Clippers results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.68.
DeMarre Carroll has been a solid asset for the Brooklyn Nets for the majority of the season and has been excellent recently. He averages 0.97 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel, and is coming off playing 34 minutes in his most recent contest versus the Cavs. Carroll has one of the best matchups of the day against the Orlando Magic, with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.11.
Power Forward
Stud
Julius Randle is in a wonderful spot against the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs have posted the lowest rebound rate in the league this season, which is a big part of the reason why Randle has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.21. The Mavs have also historically been one of Randle’s favorite opponents:
Randle has scored at least 42.75 DraftKings points in all three of his previous matchups with the Mavs this season, including 52.25 DraftKings points in his most recent outing. He’s averaged 1.18 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has been getting more minutes consistently since the Lakers traded away Larry Nance Jr.
Value
JaMychal Green has played heavy minutes for the Grizzlies recently, including 35.5 and 39.5 in his past two games. He’s averaged 0.97 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and that kind of production and playing time make him an excellent value at $5,600.
Fast Break
Kevin Love will miss today’s contest with a concussion, which should result in a few additional minutes for Jeff Green, who is currently projected for 34 minutes in our NBA Models. Green’s $4,100 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%. The Hornets are also a solid matchup for power forwards, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.46.
Dirk Nowitzki doesn’t play much these days, but still averages 0.99 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s been priced down to just $4,400, meaning he shouldn’t need to play much to have a good shot at returning value. Dirk has a wonderful matchup with Lakers, who allow an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.75.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns stands out as one of the best values on DraftKings today. He is priced at just $9,500, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also has one of the best matchups possible against the Atlanta Hawks, who allow an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.76. Towns has been a solid value recently, averaging a Plus/Minus of +3.68 over his past 10 games, and he’s seen a slight bump in production with Butler sidelined.
Value
Alan Williams is intriguing today. Big Sauce averaged 0.9 DraftKings points per minute in his first game back from injury, but has the potential for much more. He averaged well over 1.0 fantasy points per minute last season and has a nice matchup today versus the Clippers. Paying down at center and spending up a point guard or shooting guard could be an interesting way to differentiate your lineups in guaranteed prize pools.
Fast Break
Jusuf Nurkic has been one of the best centers in the league on a per-minute basis over the past month. His average of 1.39 DraftKings points per minute trails only Joel Embiid on today’s slate, and Nurkic could be asked to play more minutes with Lillard out of the lineup. Nurkic does have a tough matchup with Marc Gasol and the Grizzlies, but he’s still underpriced as long as he’s playing significant minutes.
Mike Muscala isn’t a flashy option today, but has been super solid recently. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his past nine games on FanDuel, yet his salary has actually decreased by $100 over the past month. His current $4,100 price tag comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%.
Good luck!
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Pictured Above: Shabazz Napier.
Photo credit: Jaime Valdez-USA TODAY Sports.
