The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
James Harden (rest) will miss today’s contest for the Houston Rockets, meaning Chris Paul will have the opportunity to command a large portion of the offense. Paul has seen a usage bump of 4.4% in games without Harden this season, resulting in an average of 46.97 DraftKings points per game:
Paul has a nice matchup with the Bulls, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.61 on DraftKings. The Rockets’ implied team total of 113.75 is the third-highest mark on the slate.
Damian Lillard leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where his $9,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93%. Lillard has been a strong option over the past month, averaging 1.19 FanDuel points per minute. He has one of today’s best matchups against the New Orleans Pelicans, who surrender an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.74, the highest mark on the slate at the position.
Value
Dejounte Murray has seen a dip in production recently, but it hasn’t been due to a lack of minutes. San Antonio’s only 2016 draft pick has played at least 28.5 minutes in four straight games, which bodes well for his fantasy prospects today against the Washington Wizards and moving forward. Over the past month Murray averages 0.99 DraftKings points per minute, and his $5,300 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90%.
Fast Break
The Denver Nuggets have one of the worst matchups on the slate against the Toronto Raptors, but Jamal Murray will benefit from the absence of Gary Harris (knee). Our NBA On/Off tool tells us that Murray averages 34.25 DraftKings points per game with Harris out this season, making Murray a solid value at $6,600.
On the other side of the matchup, Fred VanVleet could be an intriguing value play on today’s slate. His average Plus/Minus on DraftKings is +4.19 over his past 10 games, and he has played at least 27.5 minutes in four of his past six games. With an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.64, the Nuggets represent a nice matchup for VanVleet.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Lou Williams has been in excellent form recently, scoring at least 36.2 FanDuel points in three straight games. That said, he remains affordable on today’s slate with a $7,500 salary and a 90% Bargain Rating. So far this season, Williams has been a solid value with a comparable salary ($7,000-$8,000):
The Clippers are implied for 114.25 points versus the Milwaukee Bucks, which is the second-highest mark on the slate.
Value
Eric Gordon has been awesome for the Rockets this season with Harden out, averaging 34.59 FanDuel points per game. Gordon’s average salary during those contests was $7,237, yet he’s still been able to provide an average Plus/Minus of +2.2. His $5,600 price tag is significantly depressed and results in a Bargain Rating of 99%. He also has a strong matchup versus the Bulls, who allow an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.30 to the position.
Fast Break
Will Barton is another member of the Nuggets who could see an expended role sans Gary Harris. Barton averages 0.98 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has played at least 36 minutes in three of his past four games. That combination of production and playing time makes him a solid value on FanDuel at $7,100.
The Warriors remain one of the most shorthanded teams on the slate — Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green and Omri Casspi are all unlikely to play. This should result in a massive workload for Nick Young, who has played at least 38 minutes in three of his past four games. Players with comparable salaries ($4,300-$5,300) projected for at least 36 minutes have historically been awesome values:
Small Forward
Studs
The SF position features two of the best players on the slate in LeBron James and Giannis Antetokounmpo. LeBron has been the best player on the planet recently, averaging 1.65 FanDuel points per minute over the past month. He’s been playing all the minutes he can handle, racking up at least 38 in five of his past six games. Kevin Love recently returned to the Cavs lineup, but that really hasn’t had much of an impact this season on LeBron, who has averaged only 2.9 fewer points per 36 minutes when sharing the floor with Love:
The bigger concern with LeBron today is his matchup with his former team. The Miami Heat have an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.12 on FanDuel, and their deliberate style of play results in a pace differential of -2.6. Rostering LeBron has historically been an extremely smart idea — he’s posted a Consistency Rating of 100% over the past month and 86% over the past year — but there’s more risk than usual at this elevated price point.
Giannis hasn’t been as impressive as LeBron lately, but has the far superior matchup of the two today versus the Los Angeles Clippers. The Bucks are implied for 110.75 points, representing an increase of nearly five points compared to their season average of 106.0. Giannis also has an elite individual matchup, as the Clippers allow an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37. He’s extremely appealing on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 97% on that site.
Value
The Rockets feature a trio of SFs that are underpriced on FanDuel: Gerald Green, Joe Johnson, and PJ Tucker. All three have Bargain Ratings of at least 90% and should see expanded roles with Harden, Luc Mbah a Moute (knee), and Clint Capela (rest) all missing today’s contest. Green has been the best fantasy producer of the trio by a significant margin, averaging 0.97 fantasy points per minute, thus making him the most appealing option of the trio.
Fast Break
Patrick McCaw has SF eligibility on DraftKings and is currently priced at the absolute minimum. He scored just 13.5 DraftKings points in his most recent contest, but that belies the fact that he played just over 33 minutes. McCaw will likely see a similar workload today for the shorthanded Warriors, making him an appealing punt option against the visiting Indiana Pacers.
Power Forward
Stud
The Spurs are still without Kawhi Leonard, but LaMarcus Aldridge is doing everything possible to ensure they make the playoffs for the 21st straight year. Aldridge has taken his usage rate to another level recently, hitting the 34.2% mark in seven of his past eight games. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past six games and has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.26 on today’s slate. Aldridge likely wont garner the same attention as some of the other premier options on today’s slate, increasing his appeal in guaranteed prize pool tournaments.
Value
John Henson has played at least 28.5 minutes in back-to-back games and could see a few extra minutes today with Thon Maker (groin) doubtful. Henson averages 0.91 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is in an elite spot against the Clippers. Doc Rivers’ defense allows an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37 to the position on FanDuel, where Henson has seen a salary decrease of $600 over the past month.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis is in an interesting spot today. He put together one of the most dominant stretches in the history of daily fantasy basketball over the past two months, but has cooled off a bit recently, posting a Consistency Rating of just 76% over the past month. Davis has a tough matchup today against the Blazers, who have historically been one of Davis’s least favorite opponents:
That said, Davis has arguably more upside than anyone on the slate. Since there are tons of value plays available, Davis should be a popular option.
The Heat are currently down both Hassan Whiteside (hip) and Bam Adebayo (ankle), which will leave them thin in the frontcourt. Both Kelly Olynyk and James Johnson should see a few additional minutes, and while Olynyk has been priced up across the industry, Johnson remains affordable on FanDuel at just $5,800. Johnson has averaged 1.13 fantasy points per minute over the past month and can do serious damage if given the opportunity.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Jordan has been a rebounding monster recently, pulling down 14 or more boards in 12 of his past 14 games. He’s in one of the best spots of the day versus the Bucks, who allow an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.81 to centers on FanDuel. Milwaukee has been the second worst rebounding team in the league this season, and Jordan has been a top value over the past two seasons against teams with a bottom-three rebound rate:
Value
JaVale McGee moved into the starting lineup in his last game and posted a usage rate of 30% for the shorthanded Warriors. He averages a stout 1.30 FanDuel points per minute over the past month, giving him appeal at a salary of just $3,600.
Fast Break
Nikola Jokic could be an intriguing GPP target on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to $8,800, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98%, and he’ll likely be owned in fewer lineups than some of the other superstars on the slate.
Jusuf Nurkic has averaged 1.36 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, which is the second-highest mark among all of today’s centers. Nurkic doesn’t always see consistent playing time, but has shown a high ceiling, going for at least 41.9 FanDuel points in three of his past four games. He has an awesome matchup versus the Pelicans, who allowed an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94 to the position.
Good luck!
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Pictured Above: Giannis Antetokounmpo; Photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
