The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a six-game main slate starting at 6:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
Russell Westbrook has not recently been the dominant fantasy force we’ve become accustomed to, averaging a Plus/Minus of -2.09 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. His per-minute production has fallen to 1.38 fantasy points per minute over the past month, resulting in a Consistency Rating of just 75 percent. Even so, his salary has decreased by $700 over that time frame, which makes him a prime buy-low candidate on today’s slate. He’s been priced down to just $11,300 on FanDuel, and Westbrook has been a nice value over the past two seasons with a comparable salary:
He has a somewhat difficult matchup today with the Portland Trail Blazers, but Westbrook has posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating in three previous matchups against the Blazers this season. He leads all PGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and should be among the highest owned players on the slate.
Value
Today’s slate is weak on value at the PG position currently, but one player who could be worth a look is Dejounte Murray. He’s been priced down to $5,300 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90 percent, and he’s played at least 28.5 minutes in each of his past three games. Murray has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, so 28.5 minutes might be enough for him to return value at his reduced salary.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving has been ruled out for the next 3-6 weeks after undergoing knee surgery, which means that Terry Rozier will continue to serve as the Celtics’ starting PG. So far this season, Rozier has averaged approximately 36 FanDuel points per game with Irving and Smart out of the lineup:
He’s been priced down to just $7,000 on FanDuel for today’s matchup vs. the Kings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
The Warriors are in a really intriguing spot. On the one hand, they’re extremely shorthanded at the moment, with Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, and Omri Casspi all unlikely to play. Targeting shorthanded teams is normally sharp in NBA DFS, but that might not be the case today against the Utah Jazz. The Warriors are implied for just 97.25 points, which is a far cry from their seasona; average of 114.8. Still, its hard not to consider Quinn Cook given his recent play: He’s scored at least 32.75 DraftKings points in four straight games and has the potential to see 40 minutes on today’s slate.
Shooting Guard
Stud
The Rockets will likely be without Chris Paul once again, which puts James Harden squarely on the radar. He’s failed to return value in each of his past two games without Paul but has still averaged approximately 56.39 DraftKings points per game with CP3 out of the lineup:
The Rockets have a nice matchup today vs. the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.86 for Harden on DraftKings. The Rockets as a team are implied for 114 points, which is the second-highest mark on the slate. The one big concern, however, is whether the Hawks can keep this game competitive. They’re the largest underdogs of the day at +12.5, so it’s definitely possible that Harden could see reduced minutes in a blowout.
Value
Eric Gordon benefits from the same matchup and circumstances as Harden and is arguably the better value of the two on FanDuel. He’s currently priced at just $5,200 and has averaged 27.51 FanDuel points with Paul out of the lineup:
He’s currently projected for 37.1 minutes in our NBA Models, which is the top mark among SGs on today’s slate. He should be extremely chalky on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
The Raptors have been one of the best offensive teams in the league for the duration of the season, but they’re an incredibly difficult team to target for daily fantasy basketball. They benefit from one of the best benches in the history of the NBA, which means that they don’t have to lean on their star players for production. They’re in a wonderful spot today against the Clippers — they lead the slate with an implied team total of 117 points — but it’s still hard to trust any of the Toronto starters in cash games. For guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), though, DeMar DeRozan is definitely worthy of some consideration. He’s the Raptors’ most likely candidate for a monster game.
Donovan Mitchell has crushed in his past two games, posting a FanDuel Plus/Minus of at least +9.59 in both contests. He’s in a nice spot today against the Warriors, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39, although it’s possible that overstates how good the matchup is. The Warriors have played significantly slower with Curry off the floor this season, so this matchup could be one of the worst of the day from a pace perspective.
Small Forward
Stud
Taurean Prince may not be great by reputation, but he’s recently played as if he is, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.73 over his past 10 games. He has the potential to be a usage monster today if Dennis Schroder doesn’t suit up (currently questionable). Prince has posted a usage rate of at least 29.9 percent in four of his past seven games and seen a usage bump of 6.6 percentage points with both Schroder and Kent Bazemore off the court this season:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.09 on FanDuel vs. the Rockets and has averaged a position-high 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Value
Corey Brewer has somewhat quietly become an important part of the Thunder’s rotation lately. He’s seen at least 28 minutes in each of his past eight games and averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel. He still seems underpriced across the industry.
Fast Break
Joe Ingles has been a nice value for the Jazz recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.16 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s increased his per-minute productivity to 0.89 fantasy points per minute and has played at least 34.5 minutes in four straight games.
Paul George leads all SFs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel and has seen a salary decrease of $800 over the past month. Combining those two factors has historically led to success for comparably priced SFs:
Power Forward
Stud
If the Warriors offense can have success today vs. the Jazz, it will likely come thanks to Draymond Green. He’s seen a boost in virtually all of his numbers across the board in games without Curry, Durant, and Thompson this season, seeing a usage rate increase of +8.8 percentage points, assist rate increase of +1.8 percentage points, and rebound rate increase of +3.3 percentage points:
Unfortunately, those boosts in activity might not matter much against the stout defense of the Jazz. They’ve allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions since the All-Star Break. Green has an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.11 on FanDuel.
UPDATE: Green (illness) has officially been ruled out.
Value
John Collins is probable for today’s contest with the Rockets after playing 31.5 minutes in the Hawks’ last game vs the Warriors. He’s averaged 1.02 fantasy points per minute on the season, and that kind of workload again today could make him a major value at $4,700 on DraftKings. Collins has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.39.
Fast Break
Tobias Harris is another PF who seems like an awesome value today on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to $6,700, resulting in a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. He’s averaged 1.01 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and he played over 39 minutes in his most recent contest vs. the Pacers. But he does have a tough matchup with the Raptors, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.27.
Jae Crowder hasn’t been the best fantasy asset of late, averaging a Plus/Minus of -1.55 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. It hasn’t been due to a lack of opportunities, however, as he’s played at least 31.5 minutes in three straight games. He’s averaged 0.72 fantasy points per minute over the past month, so some positive regression could be headed his way.
The Knicks will reportedly be without Kyle O’Quinn and Lance Thomas on today’s slate, which could result in a few extra minutes for Luke Kornet. He has averaged 1.04 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is priced at the near minimum across the industry.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Jordan has been a nice value of late, posting an average Plus/Minus of +4.01 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s been particularly impressive as a rebounder, pulling down at least 16 boards in eight of those games. He leads all centers with 11 Pro Trends on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Value
Here’s what Greg Monroe has done over his past 10 games:
He’s averaged 1.33 fantasy points per minute over the past month and posted a usage rate of at least 29.3 percent in each of his past four games. He also has one of the best matchups of the day at the position, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.77 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
Enes Kanter could also see a few additional minutes today for the Knicks given their current injury situation. He’s been one of the best centers in the league on a per-minute basis this season and has averaged 1.34 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel. He has a massive ceiling if he sees the high end of his minute range today vs. the Wizards.
Rudy Gobert could be worth some consideration on DraftKings, where his $7,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76 vs. the Warriors and has averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: James Harden
Photo credit Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
