The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Saturday features a five-game main slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
The Lakers played an extremely short rotation in their last game versus the Pelicans. Only eight players got in the game, and one of those players – Ivica Zubac – played just five minutes. It resulted in a huge workload for the majority of their starters, including 44 minutes for PG Lonzo Ball. He’s averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and that combination of production and playing time would make him an excellent value at $7,600 on FanDuel. That said, he does have a tough matchup today against the Memphis Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.79.
Value
The Bulls are down starting PG Kris Dunn at the moment, which has resulted in at least 28.5 minutes of playing time for Cameron Payne in three of his past four games. He’s averaged 1.00 fantasy points per minute over the past month, and his $5,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. His 10 Pro Trends are tied for the most at the position, and PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends and salaries have historically been awesome values:
Fast Break
Tyler Ulis is a huge wildcard at the PG position on today’s slate. He came out of nowhere to play 30 minutes in his most recent contest, resulting in 31 DraftKings points. He also has one of the best matchups possible versus the Orlando Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.11. If he sees heavy minutes again today, he has a chance to be one of the best values at just $3,100 on DraftKings.
Kemba Walker has put together three straight dominant performances, including a 46-point outing in just 28 minutes in his last contest against the Brooklyn Nets. He’s in another nice spot today against the Dallas Mavericks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.28. He’s one of the better values at the position on DraftKings, where his $8,500 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Chris Paul is unlikely to suit up today for the Houston Rockets, which means James Harden should be in a position to dominate the basketball versus the Pelicans. He disappointed in his most recent contest without Paul, scoring just 45.0 DraftKings points, but he’s averaged 1.59 DraftKings points per minute with Paul off the floor this season:
The Pelicans are also an outstanding matchup for Harden: He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.06 on DraftKings, and the Rockets lead the slate with an implied team total of 116.25.
Value
While Harden is clearly the best player on the Rockets, Eric Gordon might actually be a better value on FanDuel. He will likely replace Paul in the starting lineup and has averaged over 39 minutes per game with Paul and Luc Mbah a Moute out of the lineup this season:
He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.36 on FanDuel, where his $5,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
The Suns are likely to be without Devin Booker and T.J. Warren once again on today’s slate, which should open up a nice role for Troy Daniels. He’s played at least 31 minutes in relief of those two players in each of his past two games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past three contests. Daniels also has an elite matchup today against the Magic, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.17. He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where his $3,700 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
If it feels like every team on today’s slate is battling some sort of injury concerns, it’s because they are. The Magic are likely down four of their top wings – Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross remain out while Jonathan Isaac and Jonathon Simmons are doubtful – which should result in a healthy amount of playing time for Wes Iwundu. He saw over 29 minutes in their most recent contest and is currently priced at just $3,200 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. His matchup versus the Suns also results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.59.
Small Forward
Stud
Today’s slate lacks a true top-end SF, but Josh Jackson looks to be in the best spot for the shorthanded Suns. He’s averaged a stout 1.12 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has seen a usage bump of 4.1 percent with Booker and Warren off the court this season:
He posted a usage rate of 36.6 percent in this same situation yesterday against the Cavs and managed to score 32 FanDuel points in just 27.5 minutes. Today’s game against the Magic should be more competitive – the Suns are just six-point underdogs – so Jackson should have the opportunity to play more. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.93 on FanDuel, where his $6,800 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Value
Sticking with the Magic-Suns game, Mario Hezonja is another candidate to see an increased role on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.8 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 28.1 minutes in our NBA Models. At just $4,100 on FanDuel, that should be more than enough playing time to have a chance at returning value versus the Suns.
Fast Break
Rajon Rondo is out today for the Pelicans, which could result in a few additional minutes for E’Twaun Moore. He hasn’t been great on a per-minute basis this season, averaging just 0.68 DraftKings points per minute, but that likely doesn’t matter at just $4,300 on DraftKings. He’s also in a nice spot against the Rockets, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11.
Jeremy Lamb will likely earn another start for the injured Nicolas Batum on today’s slate. He saw just under 26 minutes in their blowout win versus the Grizzlies on Thursday but was still able to rack up 33.75 DraftKings points in his limited playing time. He should see closer to 30 minutes if today’s game stays competitive and has averaged 0.99 DraftKings points per minute on the season.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has cooled off substantially over his past six games, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.32 on FanDuel. The Pels are also in the midst of a grueling stretch of basketball, with today’s contest versus the Rockets representing their sixth game over the past eight days. The Rockets have also been surprisingly tough on opposing PFs this season, giving Davis an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +1.61 on FanDuel. Ultimately, it seems like paying up for Harden is the more logical decision in cash games. That said, Davis has shown a ridiculous ceiling with DeMarcus Cousins out of the lineup this season, going for over 70 FanDuel points five times in his past 15 games. He’s an ideal play for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs), especially on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 99 percent. We currently have him projected for just 17-20 percent ownership compared to 31-35 for Harden.
Value
Noah Vonleh failed to return value in yesterday’s contest vs. the Bucks, snapping a streak where he exceeded salary-based expectations in six straight games. That said, there’s no reason why he can’t bounce back on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.94 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently projected for 27 minutes against Pistons. He’s extremely appealing on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
The Lakers’ short rotation from last game could get even shorter on today’s slate, with Isaiah Thomas just ruled out due to a hip injury. All of the injuries could result in one of the largest workloads on the slate for Kyle Kuzma, who saw just under 43 minutes in his last contest. He’s averaged 0.89 fantasy points per minute on the season, and his $6,200 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Cheick Diallo could be an intriguing punt play on today’s slate if Nikola Mirotic is unable to suit up (currently questionable). He’s averaged 1.14 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is currently priced at just $3,700 on FanDuel and $3,800 on DraftKings. There’s tons of value on today’s slate, but Diallo could garner lower ownership than some of the more obvious punt plays.
Center
Stud
Dwight Howard recorded the first 30-30 game in nearly a decade in his last outing versus the Brooklyn Nets. He missed the Hornet’s last game due to a suspension, but he should return to his normal workload today against the Mavericks. It’s an outstanding matchup for Howard, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.27 on DraftKings.
Value
Cristiano Felicio has played at least 28 minutes in each of his past four games, which makes him an appealing value option at center on today’s slate. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of +6.53 or greater on FanDuel in each of those contests, and his current $4,000 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez has been one of the best values at the center position over his past 10 games:
He’s seen at least 30 minutes in seven of his past eight games and has averaged 1.10 fantasy points per minute over the past month. Unfortunately, he doesn’t have a great matchup today against Marc Gasol and the Grizzlies, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.63 on FanDuel, but he still seems underpriced across the industry given his recent production.
Tyson Chandler is unlikely to play again this season, which means that Alex Len should continue to serve as their starting center. That doesn’t guarantee that he’ll play many minutes – he’s been at 25 in each of his past two games – but he doesn’t need to play much to potentially return value at his current salary. He’s averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute this season, and his $4,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Josh Jackson, Marquess Chriss & Nick Young
Photo credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports
