The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Friday features a 10-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has not looked like his usual dominant self recently, failing to exceed salary-based expectations in six of his past eight games. That said, his salary has been reduced to just $11,110 on DraftKings on today’s slate, which could create an interesting buy-low opportunity. Westbrook has historically been a very nice value with a comparable salary:
Unfortunately, he doesn’t have a great matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.65 against the Miami Heat.
Stephen Curry is expected to rejoin the lineup for the Warriors tonight, but the team remains very shorthanded. They’ll be without Kevin Durant, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green, and possibly Omri Casspi, which means that Curry could be asked to carry a massive workload. Curry hasn’t played many minutes with the rest of the Big 4 off the court this season, but he’s averaged 65.55 FanDuel points per 36 minutes and a usage rate of greater than 40 percent in his limited opportunities:
He also has an elite matchup against the Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.39 on FanDuel. The Warriors may look to take it easy on Curry given his struggles with ankle injuries throughout his career, but this is a potential smash spot if he sees his normal workload.
Value
The NBA tankathon is definitely here. The Bulls have funneled a ton of minutes to Cameron Payne recently, playing at least 28.5 minutes in two of his past three games. He’s currently projected for 31.5 minutes in our NBA Models and has averaged 0.99 fantasy points per minute over the past month. That kind of production would make him an awesome value at just $5,600 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The PG position is absolutely loaded today. The Bucks will be without Giannis Antetokounmpo, which could result in a larger role for Eric Bledsoe. So far this season, Bledsoe has averaged 35.65 FanDuel points per 36 minutes with Giannis off the court:
He looks like a nice value on FanDuel given his Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Damian Lillard leads all PGs with 14 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. Historically, PGs with a comparable number of Pro Trends and Bargain Ratings have been excellent values:
His matchup with the Celtics is less than ideal – they currently lead the league in defensive efficiency – but they have not been the same team defensively with Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart off the court this season.
Shooting Guard
Studs
Bledsoe isn’t the only member of the Bucks who should benefit from Antetokounmpo’s absence. Khris Middleton has seen a team-high usage bump of 7.3 percent with Giannis off the court this season, resulting in an average of 38.24 FanDuel points per 36 minutes:
He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
The SG position is not nearly as strong as PG on today’s slate, but it does feature a couple of intriguing options. Victor Oladipo has a nice matchup against the Los Angeles Clippers, who have played at one of the fastest paces in the league recently. It results in an implied team total of 110.75 for the Pacers and an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.40 for Oladipo on DraftKings. He’s also seen a salary decrease of $700 over the past month, and his current $8,200 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Values
The Bulls are currently down both Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine, which will likely result in big minutes for Justin Holiday on today’s slate. He’s currently projected for 30 minutes in our NBA Models, and Holiday has historically been an awesome value with a comparable salary and minute projection:
He’s extremely cheap across the industry, owning a salary of $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,500 on FanDuel.
Nick Young should continue to see an increased role for the shorthanded Warriors. He’s played over 40 minutes in back-to-back games and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.01 on DraftKings against the Bulls.
Fast Break
Devin Booker is questionable on today’s slate, but if he’s active he would find himself in an excellent spot against the Cavaliers. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94 on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent, and he leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel. He’s averaged 1.14 fantasy points per minute over the past month, which trails only Oladipo’s mark among SGs on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Stud
LeBron James continues to be the most dominant force in NBA DFS at the moment. He’s put together an incredible stretch over his past five games:
He’s played a ridiculous amount of minutes over that time frame, hitting the 39.5-minute mark in each of his past four contests. The Cavs lead today’s slate with an implied team total of 121.5 points versus the Suns, which represents an increase of over 10 points compared to their season-average (110.8). LeBron also has an elite individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.88 on FanDuel. That said, there are concerns with The King on today’s slate. The Cavs are massive 13.5-point favorites, so this game definitely has some blowout potential. LeBron also posted a usage rate of ‘just’ 30.9 percent in his most recent contest but made up for it by handing out 17 assists with zero turnovers. LeBron has been priced up to $13,100 on FanDuel on today’s slate, so any reduction in minutes or usage could be a huge detriment at his current salary. He’s a much safer play on DraftKings, where his $12,100 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Value
Nemanja Bjelica played just 22.5 minutes in his most recent contest, but that stands out as a major outlier in his recent game log. He had played at least 35 minutes in each of his six prior games, and he will likely return to his normal workload today with Derrick Rose unavailable. He’s averaged 0.79 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Fast Break
Taurean Prince disappointed yesterday, and the Hawks managed just 91 total points with Dennis Schroder out of the lineup. That said, Prince has been fantastic recently, averaging 1.08 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s been priced down to $7,000 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
David Nwaba is another member of the Bulls who could see an increased workload on today’s slate. He’s averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, where his $4,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Power Forward
Stud
LaMarcus Aldridge has been fantastic for the Spurs recently, posting at least 50.25 DraftKings points in three straight games. He’s averaged 1.27 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and has posted a usage rate of at least 30.4 percent in seven straight games. He has a brutal matchup today against the Utah Jazz, who have been the best defensive team in the league since the All-Star break, but that should reduce his ownership on today’s slate. He’s a nice value on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 93 percent.
Value
It’s nearly impossible to trust Serge Ibaka, but he’s in a fantastic spot on today’s slate. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.71 on FanDuel against the Brooklyn Nets, and Ibaka has thoroughly dominated them over their first three matchups this season:
Fast Break
Jabari Parker dominated in his most recent contest, scoring 37.7 FanDuel points while playing a season-high 30 minutes. It’s possible he could see a similar workload today given the injury to Giannis and has averaged 0.98 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Markieff Morris has a Bargain Rating of 93 percent on DraftKings, which could make him an intriguing buy-low option on today’s slate. He’s failed to return value in each of his past two games, but that’s been due more to a lack of playing time than a decrease in production. If he returns to his normal workload today, he could be a nice value at $5,200.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns has one of the best matchups of the day against the New York Knicks. They’ve allowed 117.5 points per 100 possessions over their past 16 games, and the Timberwolves’ implied team total of 116.75 trails only the Cavs’ on today’s slate. Towns has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.68 on DraftKings, where he leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends. He’s also one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
The Suns have said that it’s unlikely Tyson Chandler will suit up again this season, which means that Alex Len should continue to serve as the team’s starting center. So far this season, Len has averaged 1.06 FanDuel points per minute with Chandler out of the lineup:
He played 25 minutes in their most recent contest, and his $4,400 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has been priced down to $7,800 on DraftKings for today’s matchup vs. the Spurs, giving him a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. The Spurs are a difficult matchup, resulting in an implied team total of just 95.5 points, but Gobert has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82. He’s been a solid value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.78 over his past 10 games.
As usual, most of the top centers stand as better values on DraftKings on today’s slate. One exception, however, is Nikola Jokic. He has a Bargain Rating of 60 percent on FanDuel, which is light years better than the marks for Towns (six percent) and Gobert (two percent). Jokic hasn’t been nearly as consistent as the other top options, but his average of 1.32 fantasy points per minute is the top mark for all centers projected for at least 25 minutes on today’s slate.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Steph Curry & Draymond Green
Photo credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
