The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Thursday features a six-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Stud
No one at the PG position is projected for more minutes than Lonzo Ball on today’s slate. He has an elite matchup against the New Orleans Pelicans with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.87. This game should be one of the best of the day for fantasy purposes — both teams rank in the top three in pace this season — and the over/under of 228 is the top mark on the slate by a comfortable margin. Lonzo is also one of the best values of the day on FanDuel, evidenced by a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Shelvin Mack has averaged a very respectable 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has played at least 24 minutes in each of his past three games. He’s posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.95 in each of the last two games on FanDuel, where he remains extremely affordable at just $3,900 on today’s slate. The Magic have the potential to be one of the most shorthanded teams, with Jonathon Simmons and Jonathan Isaac currently doubtful and Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross already ruled out.
Fast Break
Ben Simmons has PG/SF eligibility on DraftKings and PF eligibility on FanDuel, but he’s much more valuable today on the former. He has a Bargain Rating of 99 percent and is in one of the best spots of the day against the Magic with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.92, and the 76ers’ implied team total of 110 points is one of the top marks on the slate.
Dennis Schroder exploded in his most recent contest, posting 58.25 DraftKings points and a usage rate of 41.2 percent. The Hawks will be without Kent Bazemore for the rest of the season, and Schroder has seen a team-high usage bump of 3.7 percentage points with Bazemore off the court this season:
Without Bazemore, Schroder has averaged 1.17 fantasy points per minute on DraftKings, and he is currently projected for 32.9 minutes in our NBA Models. That would make him a really nice value at his current $6,500 price tag.
Shooting Guard
Stud
Chris Paul is questionable today for the Rockets after injuring his hamstring during Tuesday’s win vs the Blazers. If he’s unable to go, James Harden would become one of the most popular stud options on the slate. So far this season, Harden has averaged 57.69 DraftKings points per game with CP3 out of the lineup:
His matchup with the Pistons is an intriguing one. They rank 11th in defensive efficiency this season but have allowed an NBA-high 33.3 3-point attempts since trading for Blake Griffin. That should benefit Harden and the Rockets, who lead the league in both 3-pointers made and attempted this season.
Value
Harden isn’t the only member of the Rockets who would benefit from Paul’s absence. Eric Gordon has replaced him in the starting lineup in games he’s missed this season, resulting in an average of 27.04 FanDuel points per game:
He’s currently priced at just $4,700 on FanDuel, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Fast Break
Brandon Ingram remains sidelined for the Lakers, which means that Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should continue to see a massive workload. He’s played at least 36.5 minutes in eight of his past nine games and averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has an awesome matchup with the Pelicans, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.48, and his $5,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 98 percent.
Jrue Holiday has been priced down to $7,900 on DraftKings, giving him a Bargain Rating of 99 percent. He has averaged a stout 1.19 fantasy points per minute over the past month but was limited to just 32.5 minutes in yesterday’s contest. He has been battling an illness and reportedly needed an IV at halftime, but it’s possible he could return to his normal workload if he’s feeling better today. He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Lakers, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.32 on DraftKings.
Small Forward
Stud
Taurean Prince has been phenomenal over his last 10 games:
He’s seen a nice boost in playing time since the injury to Bazemore, playing at least 34 minutes in each of his past five games. He’s also posted a usage rate of at least 29.9 percent in three of those contests, which is a sizable increase from his season-long mark of 21.2 percent. The Hawks have an intriguing matchup today with the Kings, who rank just 29th in defensive efficiency this season. Unfortunately, they’re also tied for 28th in pace, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -1.40 for Prince on FanDuel.
Value
Justin Jackson saw 30.5 minutes in the Kings’ most recent contest, and he seems like a prime candidate to see some increased playing time down the stretch. He hasn’t been great on a per-minute basis this season, averaging just 0.60 fantasy points per minute, but he’s currently projected for 30.7 minutes and is priced at just $3,800 on FanDuel. Historically, players with comparable salaries and minute projections have been solid values:
He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Atlanta Hawks, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.14.
Fast Break
Mario Hezonja is another candidate to see an increased workload today for the shorthanded Magic. He’s averaged 0.87 fantasy points per minute on the season, and his current $4,500 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 86 percent. He has a nice matchup with the 76ers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.45.
Jeremy Lamb looks like a major value today on DraftKings at just $5,700 with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, which trails only Simmons among SF-eligible players. Nicolas Batum is expected to miss today’s contest, which means that Lamb should enter the starting lineup for the second straight game. He’s seen a team-high usage bump of 2.2 percentage points with Batum off the court this season, resulting in an average of 1.01 DraftKings points per minute:
Lamb has played at least 30 minutes in each of the past two games and should see a similar workload in today’s contest.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis is in one of the most interesting spots that we’ve seen all season. On the one hand, he has an outstanding matchup today with the Lakers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.91. Davis has absolutely destroyed this team over the past two seasons, averaging over 68 FanDuel points per game:
That includes an 81.5-point fantasy performance in their most recent contest, and Davis did that in only 33 minutes after briefly exiting the game with an injury scare.
But this is far from a slam dunk spot for Davis and the Pels. They made up their “rained out” game with the Pacers last night, which means that tonight’s game will be the only time this season that an NBA team will play on three nights in a row. They also played a back-to-back prior to starting this current streak, which will make it five games in six nights for the New Orleans’ players. We have very little data available for players playing for the third straight day, but the data we do have are concerning:
This is still a potential smash spot, but there’s significant risk involved as well.
Value
Dwight Howard is expected to miss today’s contest after picking up his 16th technical foul of the season yesterday, which will likely result in a few additional minutes for Frank Kaminsky. He’s averaged 0.87 fantasy points per minute on the season, so any additional playing time could make him a nice value at $4,200 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
The Lakers have a pair of really intriguing PFs in Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma. Randle has destroyed everything in his path recently, averaging 1.20 fantasy points per minute on FanDuel over the past month. He leads the position with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 95 percent. Kuzma has seen a huge spike in playing time recently thanks to the injury to Ingram, playing at least 37 minutes in six of his past seven games. Both players have excellent individual matchups today, with Kuzma owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.98 and Randle owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.97.
Center
Stud
As usual, the majority of the top center options are significantly better values on DraftKings today:
Of the group, Rudy Gobert has the best matchup vs the Mavericks. They’ve been killed on the glass for the majority of the season, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.29 for Gobert. He’s also been in great recent form, averaging a Plus/Minus of +6.66 over his past 10 games.
Value
Today looks like a great day for value at the center position. If Howard is ruled out — it’s possible they could rescind his 16th tech — look for Willy Hernangomez to see a few additional minutes. He’s been fantastic on a per-minute basis for most of his career and has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s especially appealing on DraftKings, where his $3,400 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Mike Muscala could be the preferred value option on FanDuel at $4,500. He played 29.5 minutes in the Hawks’ most recent game and has averaged 0.88 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has a great matchup today with the Kings, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.26.
Fast Break
Brook Lopez has come back from the dead recently, posting a Plus/Minus of +7.42 on FanDuel over his past 10 games. He has averaged 1.1 fantasy points per minute over the past month and is coming off 37 minutes in his most recent contest. He has a nice matchup with the Pelicans, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.94.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: Anthony Davis
Photo credit: Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports
