The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Wednesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Today’s slate features a few top PGs in nice spots, but none of them is without question marks. Kemba Walker has one of the best matchups on the slate against the Brooklyn Nets, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.11 on FanDuel, but Walker has been in terrible form recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -3.73 over his past 10 games. He’s also seen a sizable price increase to $8,700 on today’s slate, and Walker has historically struggled to pay off a comparable salary:
Kyle Lowry also has a nice matchup today, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.41 against the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Cavs have not improved on the defensive end of the court despite overhauling their roster at the trade deadline, and the Raptors’ implied team total of 112.25 is one of the top marks on the slate. However, Lowry has only been averaging around 32 minutes per game recently, which limits his upside at $7,700. The same holds true for Eric Bledsoe, who has seen no more than 31.5 minutes in four of his past five games, but the Bucks do possess the top implied team total of the day at 114.75.
Value
Minutes have not been an issue recently for Austin Rivers. He’s seen at least 37 minutes in three straight games and has averaged 0.79 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s a better value today on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 81 percent.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday missed last night’s game with an illness and is currently questionable for today’s contest with the Pacers. If he’s unable to go, it should result in a slight bump in value for Rajon Rondo. He’s averaged 0.93 fantasy points per minute with both Holiday and DeMarcus Cousins off the court this season and has averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He played approximately 32.5 minutes in yesterday’s contest, which makes him an appealing value on FanDuel at $5,400.
Tomas Satoransky continues to play big minutes for the Wizards minus John Wall. He’s seen at least 34.5 in each of his past two games and averaged 0.85 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He doesn’t have a great matchup vs. the San Antonio Spurs, but he seems underpriced at $5,400 on DraftKings given his recent role and production.
Shooting Guard
Studs
The top SGs on today’s slate likely comes down to which site you’re playing on. Bradley Beal (99 percent Bargain Rating) and Lou Williams (93 percent Bargain Rating) stand out as the best values at the top on FanDuel. Lets start with Beal. He’s cooled off a bit recently from a fantasy perspective, but he might be just too cheap at his current salary. He’s averaged over 36 FanDuel points per game with Wall out of the lineup this season, and his current $7,600 price tag is more than $800 cheaper than his average in that situation:
As for Williams, he’s been priced down on FanDuel to just $7,000 and has crushed with a comparable price tag this season:
And yet there is some risk with Williams on this slate as he’s played no more than 31 minutes in each of his past two games. He seems best suited for guaranteed prize pools (GPPs).
On DraftKings, the value at the position lies with Jrue Holiday (98 percent Bargain Rating) and Victor Oladipo (90 percent Bargain Rating). Holiday leads all SGs with 12 Pro Trends and has average 1.21 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s averaged approximately 39 DraftKings points per game with Cousins out of the lineup, and that kind of production would make him a solid value at $7,900.
On the other side of the matchup, Oladipo could be an intriguing buy-low option. He’s been dreadful recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of -5.25 over his past 10 games, but his Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.75 is one of the best marks at the position. The Pacers’ implied team total of 110 points represents an increase of more than four points when compared to their seasonal average (105.8).
Value
Danny Green has seen a nice boost in playing time recently for the Spurs, seeing at least 29.5 minutes in three straight games. He’s averaged 0.78 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.82 against the Wizards. He’s a better value today on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Fast Break
Tyreke Evans doesn’t stand out as a value on any one particular site today, but he still deserves to be considered an elite play across the industry. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 30 percent in both games since returning from injury, resulting in an average of 1.30 fantasy points per minute. He’s in a nice spot today against the Philadelphia 76ers, who have played at the fifth-fastest pace this season. It results in a pace differential (paceD) of +4.4 for Evans and the Grizzlies, which is the top mark on today’s slate.
Small Forward
Studs
SF features two of the best players in the league at the top of their powers at the moment. LeBron James has been outstanding over his past four games, scoring at least 69.6 FanDuel points in all of them. Kevin Love did return in their last contest, but that didn’t stop LeBron from posting a usage rate of 41.3 percent and playing 40 minutes. He does, though, have one of the most difficult matchups of the day against the Toronto Raptors, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of -0.53 on FanDuel. Given that he’s seen a monthly salary increase of $1,200 on FanDuel, there’s more risk than usual with LeBron on today’s slate.
Giannis Antetokounmpo has seen an equally large workload recently, playing at least 38.5 minutes in three straight games. He hasn’t been nearly as good as LeBron on a per-minute basis, but he has the far superior matchup on today’s slate vs. the Clippers with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.46, which is the top mark for all SFs projected for at least 20 minutes of playing time. He’s currently projected for just 9-12 percent ownership on DraftKings, which might make him the preferred target for GPPs.
Value
DeMarre Carroll has been solid for the Nets for the majority of the season and has posted an average Plus/Minus of +3.61 over his past 10 games on FanDuel. He’s seen a slight bump in playing time as the Nets have dealt with injuries, and Dante Cunningham remains questionable for today’s contest vs. the Hornets. It’s a good matchup for Carroll, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.41 on FanDuel.
Fast Break
E’Twuan Moore has been reliable yet unspectacular recently for the Pelicans, exceeding salary-based expectations in five straight games. He remains affordable across the industry and would likely see a bump in playing time if Holiday were ruled out again.
Power Forward
Stud
The PF position is absolutely loaded today, and it starts with Anthony Davis at the top. He failed to hit salary-based expectations last night against the Mavs but did score 37 points and post a usage rate of 32.1 percent. If Holiday were to sit again, that might be a conservative estimate for him tonight against the Pacers: He’s posted an average usage rate of 36.5 percent with both Holiday and Cousins off the floor this season:
The Pacers are also a nice matchup for Davis, resulting in an average of +3.29 on DraftKings.
Values
The only problem with paying up for Davis today on FanDuel is that it means you’ll be passing up some of the better value plays on the slate. John Henson saw just 20 minutes in the Bucks’ most recent contest but figures to be much more involved today against the Clippers. He has played at least 29.5 minutes in three of his four prior games and is currently projected for 31 minutes in our NBA Models. He has averaged 0.83 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37 on today’s slate.
Jarrell Martin has been priced down to $4,400 on FanDuel after playing just 12 minutes in his last game, but he was ultimately plagued by foul trouble in that contest. He should return to his normal workload on today’s slate and has averaged 0.80 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Finally, Trey Lyles could also be worth a look on today’s slate. He saw just under 20 minutes in his most recent contest and has averaged over 1.00 fantasy point per minute on the season. He’s priced near the minimum across the industry at $3,600.
Fast Break
Markieff Morris saw a salary decrease of $500 on FanDuel and $300 on DraftKings for today’s contest after busting in his most recent game. That could make him appealing for today’s contest given his average of 0.93 fantasy points per minute over the past month, even in a difficult matchup vs. the Spurs.
Center
Stud
DeAndre Jordan is in an elite spot today against the Bucks. He’s been a rebound monster recently, pulling down at least 15 in 10 of his past 11 games, and the Bucks currently have the third-worst team rebound rate in the league. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.81 on FanDuel, where he currently has 12 individual Pro Trends.
Value
Bam Adebayo has exceeded value on FanDuel in four straight contests thanks to the injury to Hassan Whiteside. He’s averaged 0.92 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has played at least 27 minutes in each of his past three games. His current $4,300 salary on FanDuel comes with a Bargain Rating of 97 percent, and he has an excellent matchup against the Knicks on today’s slate.
Fast Break
The best matchup at the position on today’s slate belongs to Dwight Howard. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +6.55 on DraftKings vs. the Nets and has averaged 1.30 fantasy points per minute over the past month. His playing time has decreased a bit with the Hornets currently playing for nothing but draft position, but he still has significant upside at $8,300 on FanDuel (81 percent Bargain Rating).
Kevin Love could be an interesting option on DraftKings. He’s currently priced at just $6,400 and has averaged 1.27 fantasy points per minute on the season. He’ll likely still be limited in some capacity since he just returned from an injury, but he doesn’t need to play much to have a chance at returning value at his current salary.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: James Harden
Photo credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports
