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The third stage of the Florida swing is being played on the Copperhead course at the Innisbrook Golf Resort. Keeping the same theme as the past two events, Copperhead’s Snake Pit (Holes 16-18) provide players with a stern challenge on the finishing holes. After last year’s event, the course underwent a complete restoration. Some bunkers were enlarged, new ones were added, and tee boxes were lengthened. As a result, it’s a bit tough to predict how the “new” course will play. The yardage and layout have not changed, and the “stated” purpose of the restoration was centered around creating better drainage, which could possibly lead to dryer, more firm course conditions, thus minimizing the importance of driving distance.
The Par 3’s
Copperhead features five Par 3’s, with only one of them being under 200 yards (hole 4). In the past three years, the “short” 4th hole is the only one to have surrendered a less-than-par scoring average, and that only happened once. The Florida swing is known for the long and tough Par 3’s, and Copperhead is generous enough to throw an extra one into the mix.
There aren’t many birdies to be had on these holes, so focus more on scoring average. Given their length, focusing on stats that indicate the ability to get it close from that distance will be more important.
Copperhead Par 3 Scoring Average
| Hole | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
| 4 | 2.98 | 3.06 | 3.07 |
| 8 | 3.17 | 3.19 | 3.16 |
| 13 | 3.21 | 3.19 | 3.09 |
| 15 | 3.07 | 3.12 | 3.12 |
| 17 | 3.07 | 3.09 | 3.17 |
Target: Par 3 Scoring Average, GIR from 200+ yards, Proximity from 200-225 yards
Ignore: Par 3 Birdie or Better Percentage
The Par 4’s
Much like the past two events on the Florida swing, the Par 4’s do not allow for any easy birdies. The sub 400-yard 12th hole is the only Par 4 to have a tournament scoring average over the past three years. However, one of the changes that came following 2015’s event was the addition of a new bunker near the 12th green, with hopes to make that hole more challenging.
When considering distance, it’s important to note how irrelevant it has been in challenging for a top-10 finish. The below table shows the numbers of players who finished T10 or better, and the count for how many of those finishers also had a 280-yard or more driving distance average for the tournament.
T10 or Better Finishers and 280+ Driving Distance Average
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| T10 or Better | 16 | 13 | 13 |
| Count of above and 280+ DD average | 4 | 5 | 2 |
In 2015, Brian Davis and Kevin Na both finished inside the top 10 with a sub 260-yard driving distance average. This should open up more options in cash-game lineups given that nobody is really excluded based off of their ability to hit the long ball.
Target: GIR, SG: Tee to Green, Par 4 Scoring Average
Ignore: Driving Distance
The Par 5’s
These holes should be great opportunities to gain strokes. They surrender plenty of birdies, but are also rather long, so eagle opportunities, while not unheard of, will be tough to come by. Considering their length, and the high percentage of players who will be playing them as three-shot holes, driving distance should once again be minimized.
For tournament lineups, players who have good distance averages and relatively fit into the other categories could be worth a deeper look. But history shows that driving distance is not a great factor here and that these holes are easy birdies, but tough eagles (only 11 total in 2015). For cash-game lineups, driving distance can still be ignored.
Target: Par 5 Birdie or Better, Proximity from 50-125 yards, Par 5 Scoring Average
Ignore: Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy
Summary
While not a short golf course, Copperhead tends to favor ball-strikers instead of bombers. Looking at how players T10 or better compared to the event leader in GIR and Driving Distance, we see that the gap is smaller for GIR and larger for driving distance.
Valspar Championship – GIR Comparison
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| Tournament Leader | 77.8% | 79.6% | 73.6% |
| T10 or Better | 66.9% | 68.5% | 65.7% |
| Difference | -14% | -14% | -10.7% |
Valspar Championship – Driving Distance Comparison
| 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | |
| Tournament Leader | 306.2 | 308.1 | 301.2 |
| T10 or Better | 276 | 280.8 | 272.4 |
| Difference | -9.9% | -8.8% | -9.5% |
The above shows that driving distance wasn’t nearly as indicative of of a top-10 finish as GIR, as the top-10 finishers skewed closer to the tournament leader for GIR.
To help make my point a little better: The GIR tournament leader averaged 13.5 greens per round, while the top-10 finishers averaged 11.75 per round. The driving leaders, in comparison, averaged 30-40 yards more distance compared to the top-10 finishers.
Proximity to the hole will be a useful stat this week, as that is a solid indicator of ball striking. You can ignore bogey avoidance, since the past three winners have all made at least seven bogies over the weekend, and two of the past three winners made a double bogey. However, those winners also made at least 17 birdies, so birdie average will be something to pay attention to this week.
Target: GIR, SG: Tee to Green, Proximity from 200+ yards, Par 5 Birdie or Better
Ignore: Par 3 Birdie or Better, Driving Distance, Driving Accuracy
