The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Tuesday features an eight-game main slate starting at 8:00 p.m. ET.
Point Guard
Studs
Russell Westbrook has posted a triple-double in five consecutive games, but that hasn’t necessarily translated to dominant fantasy results. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in just two of those contests, resulting in an average Plus/Minus of -3.18 over his past 10 games. He has an interesting matchup today against the Boston Celtics. They still own the best Defensive Rating in the league this season, but they’ve shown some major slippage recently. They’ve allowed 109.7 points per 100 possessions over their past 14 games, which is more than eight points worse than their full-season mark. They’re still down their two best perimeter defenders as well, with Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown still sidelined due to injuries. Ultimately, this spot is much better than it appears to be on paper.
Damian Lillard has been fantastic for the Trail Blazers, who are on a 13-game winning streak. He’s typically saved his best work for the top teams in the league, and today’s matchup against the Rockets certainly qualifies. Houston leads the league with a win percentage of 80 percent, and Lillard has historically been an excellent value against teams with a win percentage above 70:
He leads all PGs with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel.
Value
Elfrid Payton has seen a salary decrease of $2,000 on FanDuel over the past month, which could make him an intriguing buy-low target on today’s slate. He’s seen a reduction in playing time recently but has still averaged 0.93 fantasy points per minute over the past month. The Suns will also be without T.J. Warren and possibly Devin Booker (currently questionable), and Payton has seen a usage bump of 1.8 percent with both players off the court this season.
Fast Break
Jeff Teague and the Timberwolves appear to be in a nice spot today against the Los Angeles Clippers. They’re currently implied for 114.75 points, which is the top mark on today’s slate. Teague has averaged a stout 1.15 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and is coming off nearly 37 minutes of playing time in his most recent contest. He has one of the top Bargain Ratings at the position on DraftKings at 90 percent.
Shooting Guard
Studs
James Harden has been a usage monster recently. He’s posted a usage rate of at least 35.1 percent in five of his past six games and has scored at least 61.2 FanDuel points in back-to-back contests. That said, today’s matchup against the Blazers is a brutal one. They rank seventh in defensive efficiency on the season, but their average of 101.2 points allowed per 100 possessions since the All-Star break trails only the Utah Jazz’s mark. The Rockets’ implied team total of 110.5 still ranks fifth on the slate, but it does represent a decrease of more than three points compared to their season-average (113.6). Harden can obviously go off against anyone – he scored 69.5 DraftKings points in his only other meeting with the Blazers this season – but this is a difficult spot.
The Pelicans are second on today’s slate with an implied team total of 114 points, which makes Jrue Holiday an intriguing target against the Dallas Mavericks. He’s been fantastic this season with DeMarcus Cousins out of the lineup:
Holiday has been even better when the Pelicans have been implied for at least 112 points over the past two months, averaging a Plus/Minus of +9.01 on DraftKings. He’s a little expensive on FanDuel, but his $8,200 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 95 percent.
Value
Andrew Wiggins has been extremely reliable since the injury to Jimmy Butler, posting a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating on both DraftKings and FanDuel over the past month. He hasn’t shown much of a ceiling recently, but he does have an elite matchup today against the Clippers. It results in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.58 on DraftKings, where he owns a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Fast Break
On the other side of the same matchup, Lou Williams could be an intriguing option on FanDuel. He’s been priced down to just $7,100 on today’s slate and has been a fantastic value at a comparable salary so far this season:
The Clippers’ implied team total of 111.25 is the fourth-highest mark on the slate, and the Wolves have allowed 120.7 points per 100 possessions with Butler off the floor this season.
Shaquille Harrison could have some value on today’s slate if Booker is inactive. He’s averaged 1.07 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, where he’s currently priced just $100 above the minimum.
Small Forward
Stud
Paul George leads the way at the SF position on today’s slate. He leads the position with 13 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he also has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent. He’s been priced down drastically over the past month, resulting in a monthly salary change of -$1,200. Despite that, he hasn’t seen a noticeable dip in his per-minute production over that time frame, and he’s currently projected for 36.8 minutes in our NBA Models. He seems like a prime buy-low candidate and should benefit from the same matchup as Westbrook against the reeling Celtics D.
Value
Reggie Bullock has been a nice source of value recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +3.41 over his past 10 games. He has one of the best matchups of the day against the Suns, who have been a disaster defensively this season. The Pistons are currently implied for 111.5 points, which represents an increase of nearly nine points compared to their season-average (102.7). Bullock also has an excellent individual matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.70.
Fast Break
No one at the SF position is projected for more minutes than Nemanja Bjelica. He’s failed to return value in each of his past two games but has still averaged a Plus/Minus of +5.42 over his past 10 contests on FanDuel. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.16, which gives him one of the top individual matchups at the position.
Power Forward
Stud
Anthony Davis has seen his production come back to reality recently. He’s been held under 57 FanDuel points in three straight games, which is a major decrease given his average of 63.2 FanDuel points over the past month. That said, he’s in a potential smash spot today against the Mavs. They have the worst rebound rate in the league this season, giving Davis an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.00 on DraftKings. He was held to ‘just’ 53.75 DraftKings points in his most recent contest against the Mavericks, but his usage rate of 26.2 percent was unusually low with Cousins out of the lineup. He has way more upside than that on today’s slate.
Value
Dirk Nowitzki may not play many minutes these days, but he can still get it done. He’s averaged 1.05 FanDuel points per minute over the past month and has seen at least 24.5 minutes in back-to-back games. He doesn’t need to play much more than that to have a chance at returning value given his $4,900 salary on FanDuel. The Pelicans are also an excellent matchup for Nowitzki, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.04.
Fast Break
Blake Griffin is in one of the most intriguing spots on today’s slate. On one hand, he hasn’t been particularly good since arriving in Detroit, resulting in a Consistency Rating of just 69 percent on FanDuel over the past month. His per-minute productivity has also decreased over the past month, falling to just 1.03 fantasy points per minute. That said, he’s in an outstanding spot today against the Suns, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.84. He also leads all PFs on FanDuel with 11 Pro Trends.
Tobias Harris has averaged 1.09 fantasy points per minute over the past month on FanDuel, which trails only Davis’ mark among PFs projected for at least 15 minutes. He’s definitely worth consideration in a plus matchup against the Timberwolves. That said, he was just added to the injury report with an illness, and there’s a chance we won’t know his status prior to the 8 p.m. ET tip-off.
Center
Stud
Karl-Anthony Towns is in an elite spot today against the Clippers, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.62 on DraftKings. He leads all centers with 12 Pro Trends on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 98 percent. Towns has seen a nice bump in value with Butler sidelined recently, resulting in an average of 1.32 fantasy points per minute over the past month.
Value
Tyson Chandler missed the Suns’ most recent contest and is currently questionable for today’s matchup against the Pistons. His absence would likely result in a start for Alex Len, who has averaged 1.03 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He hasn’t played many minutes recently, but that could change today against the size of the Pistons. It’s a nice matchup for Len, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.77.
Fast Break
Rudy Gobert has been fantastic recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.56 on DraftKings over his past 10 games. He has a wonderful matchup today against the Atlanta Hawks, resulting in an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.76, and his $8,400 salary on DraftKings comes with a Bargain Rating of 99 percent.
Good luck!
News Updates
After this piece is published, FantasyLabs is likely to provide news updates on a number of players. Be sure to stay ahead of your competition with our NBA news feed.
Pictured above: James Harden
Photo credit: Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports
