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As we transition into MLB DFS, I will start with a Trend of the Week in March, which will then become a Trend of the Day which our writers will take turns putting together during the MLB Regular Season.

Trend: Bottom of the Order, High Vegas Score

In MLB DFS, we like to target, and usually even stack, hitters whose team commands a high Vegas total. On many days, players in these situations are the first ones we gravitate towards when putting together our rosters for the slate. You probably don’t need me to tell you to roster Stanton when the Marlins are in Denver for a series, but what happens to the bottom of the order in these games? Is this a good place to look when you want to save a few bucks? Let’s take a look.

There’s more than one way to look at Vegas info, but in this article, I’m going to use Vegas Score, which is a total rating that weighs projected run total, the game’s spread, line movement, etc.

Step 1: Vegas Filters > Vegas Score > Set “90-99”

 

If you’re still in NBA DFS mode, a Plus/Minus of +1.05 might not seem like a lot for a hitter. If DeMarcus Cousins was projected to score 43 fantasy points, but actually scored 44, that’s okay, but it’s probably not enough to have you popping champagne bottles afterwards. On the other hand, if over 6,000 matches, hitters have scored 8.30 fantasy points against an expectation of 7.25, that’s actually quite good.

Step 2: Player Filters > Lineup Order > Set “7 to 9”

 

Here, we filter to only include players hitting at the bottom of the order and, unfortunately, we lose most of the value from the previous query. In fact, if we open up the “Lineup Order” Filter and look at the chart that pops up, we can see that the actual drop-off point is probably at the sixth spot in the order:

 

Step 3: Trend Filters > Pro Trends > Set “90-95”

Does this mean that we should always fade batters six through nine, even when they are in favorable spots? I’d say no, particularly in GPPs, where you can take advantage of a bad pitcher, but still also capitalize on lower ownership. If you decide to go further and apply additional filters, you can find some pockets of success. For example, if we look for players with high Pro Trends Ratings within this subset, we add half a fantasy point per player per game:

 

In general though, be aware that once a player has been assigned to the six, seven, eight, or nine spot by their manager, their fate may have been sealed on that night, at least relative to MLB DFS cash games.