The NBA Breakdown offers data-driven analysis for each day’s slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics to highlight notable players.
Sunday features a three-game main slate starting at 6:00 p.m. ET. Instead of the usual positional breakdown, lets go game-by-game instead.
Boston Celtics @ New Orleans Pelicans (-1.5) – 215.5 over/under
The Celtics will remain pretty shorthanded for today’s contest, but it is possible that they get back star PG Kyrie Irving. He’s currently listed as questionable, while both Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart have already been ruled out. The Celtics are currently implied for 107 points, which is the lowest mark on today’s slate.
Al Horford figures to be the biggest beneficiary if Irving is ruled out. No one on the team has seen a larger usage bump this season with Irving, Brown, and Smart off the court, resulting in an average of 41.22 DraftKings points per 36 minutes:
Horford has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his past two games and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.76 on today’s slate. He’s a slightly better value today on FanDuel, where his $6,900 salary comes with a Bargain Rating of 75 percent.
Marcus Morris has seen a nice bump in playing time given the Celtics’ injuries, playing at least 31.5 minutes in five of his past six games. He’s averaged 0.86 fantasy points per minute over the past month and has the best individual matchup today for the Celtics, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.04 on FanDuel.
Terry Rozier could be worthy of some consideration in guaranteed prize pools (GPPs) if Irving is ruled out, but he’s been priced up to $7,900 on FanDuel and $7,600 on DraftKings. He’s been excellent with Irving and Smart out of the lineup this season, averaging 41.65 DraftKings points per game, but he’s scored just 27.0 and 35.25 DraftKings points in his last two non-overtime games. The Pelicans are a nice matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.74 on FanDuel, but he might be just a little too expensive at the moment.
If Irving is active, he could be worth a look on DraftKings. He’s been priced down to just $7,800, giving him a Bargain Rating of 93 percent. He’ll likely be on some sort of minute restriction, but he’s averaged 1.47 DraftKings points per minute over the past month, and he has an awesome Opponent Plus/Minus of +5.18. He can do a lot of damage with minimal playing time.
The Pelicans as a team seem extremely underpriced on DraftKings today:
Let’s start with Anthony Davis. He’s cooled off a bit after a torrid stretch, averaging just 45.13 fantasy points over his past two contests. His salary hasn’t really decreased either, with his current $11,400 price tag representing a decrease of just $100 over the past two games. The Celtics represent a difficult matchup, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of just +0.27 on FanDuel, but Davis did crush them for 75 fantasy points in their most recent meeting. He might be a little overpriced at the moment, but he still offers a tremendous amount of upside.
Jrue Holiday might be the more appealing buy at the moment. He’s posted an average Plus/Minus of +4.51 over his past 10 games on DraftKings, yet he has seen a salary decrease of $400 for today’s matchup. The Celtics are a brutal matchup on paper, but they’re a much more vulnerable defensive team with Smart and Brown off the court. Opponents are averaging 111.9 points per 100 possessions in that situation, which is a far cry from their league-best mark of 101.2. He leads all players with 12 Pro Trends on FanDuel despite having a Bargain Rating of just one percent.
Rajon Rondo has also been a really nice value over his past 10 games, but his playing time has been a bit volatile recently. He’s had no more than 24 minutes in three of his past four games, but two of those have been blowouts. He played 36.5 minutes in the other game, which resulted in 53.75 DraftKings points at an average of just 8.9 percent ownership. He could be worth a flier in GPPs.
Ian Clark has started to see more minutes for the Pels, hitting the 31-minute mark in each of his past two games. He scored at least 24 DraftKings points in both of those contests and remains affordable across the industry at $3,400 on DraftKings and $3,700 on FanDuel. He should be a popular value play on today’s slate.
Houston Rockets (-7) @ Minnesota Timberwolves – 222 over/under
The Rockets unsurprisingly lead the slate with an implied team total of 114.5, and the matchup with the Timberwolves sets up as a good one. They’re tied for just 25th in defensive efficiency this season, allowing an average of 108.7 points per 100 possessions. The only possible concern is that the Rockets are on the road for the second leg of a back-to-back.
James Harden in particular has been severely affected by road back-to-backs over the past two seasons, failing to meet salary-based expectations by an average of 3.02 points:
Still, he does seem a little underpriced on DraftKings at just $11,000, and he has one of the better individual matchups of the day. He has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +3.00 on DraftKings, and Andrew Wiggins has been a disaster defensively for most of the season.
Clint Capela looks like one of the best potential values of the day on DraftKings. He’s exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games, yet he’s been priced down to just $6,400 for today’s contest. It gives him a Bargain Rating of 99 percent in what should be a really solid matchup: He leads the team with an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.46.
Chris Paul leads the team with 11 Pro Trends on FanDuel and is coming off a nice game in his last outing against the Pelicans. He’s seen a massive $900 salary decrease over the past month despite posting a solid Consistency Rating of 83 percent.
The Rockets have a host of role players who are worthy of consideration as well. PJ Tucker has been the best of the bunch recently while filling in for the injured Ryan Anderson. He has played at least 29.5 minutes in back-to-back games and is projected for a similar workload on today’s slate. Trevor Ariza and Eric Gordon both possess significant upside at their current salaries, although both have seen a noticeable dip in playing time recently. Luc Mbah a Moute could also be worth a look on DraftKings, where he has a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
The Timberwolves have been riding Karl-Anthony Towns hard recently. He’s seen at least 39 minutes in each of his past three games, including a 16-point loss in their most recent outing against the Spurs. (Never change, Thibs.) No one on today’s slate is projected for more than his 38.9 minutes, and he’s averaged 1.32 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He has a solid Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.87 and is among the best values of the day on DraftKings given his Bargain Rating of 98 percent. He leads all players with 13 individual Pro Trends.
Jeff Teague doesn’t have a workload as heavy as Towns’, but he’s been super effective when on the court, given his average of 1.11 fantasy points per minute over the past month. He’s been priced down to just $5,900 on DraftKings, which means he should need to play much more than 30 minutes to have a shot at returning value on today’s slate.
Nemanja Bjelica has done a nice job filling in for Jimmy Butler recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +5.37 over his past 10 games on DraftKings. He did put up a clunker in his most recent contest, but that can be excused since it was against the San Antonio Spurs. He’s in a nice spot to bounce back today given his Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.22, and he owns a Bargain Rating of 98 percent on DraftKings.
Andrew Wiggins is the only member of the starting lineup who’s a better value on FanDuel today. He hasn’t produced as expected following Butler’s injury, but he has posted a perfect 100 percent Consistency Rating over the past month. He has a nice individual matchup today with Harden, giving him an Opponent Plus/Minus of +2.25.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Clippers (-2.5) – 219.5 Over/Under
Damian Lillard has been outstanding recently, which is a big reason the Blazers have won 13 straight games. He has averaged a Plus/Minus of +3.81 over his past 10 games on FanDuel and is in a nice spot today against the Clippers. They’ve allowed 112.9 points per 100 possessions over their past 13 games while averaging 100.6 possessions per game.
Al-Farouq Aminu has one of the better individual matchups for the Blazers, evidenced by an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.35 on FanDuel. He’s played at least 30.5 minutes in three straight games and posted a Plus/Minus of at least +10.41 in each of his past two contests. He’s extremely appealing on DraftKings with his Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
CJ McCollum also has a solid matchup, owning an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.17. He’s averaged 0.96 DraftKings points per minute over the past month and been priced down to $7,100 for today’s matchup, giving him a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Jusuf Nurkic could have some GPP appeal on FanDuel, where he has a Bargain Rating of 75 percent. He’s averaged 1.34 fantasy points per minute over the past month, but he’s played fewer than 23 minutes in four of his past five games. Still, he could see a few additional minutes today against the size of DeAndre Jordan and has an Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.37.
DeAndre Jordan has been dominant on the boards recently for the Clippers, pulling down at least 18 rebounds in seven of his past eight games. That gives him a really solid floor, and he has a strong Opponent Plus/Minus of +4.04 on DraftKings today. He’s yet another center who seems underpriced, evidenced by his Bargain Rating of 90 percent on DraftKings.
Tobias Harris has been outstanding recently, posting an average Plus/Minus of +6.11 over his past seven games. He’s another player who looks like a value today on DraftKings, given his Bargain Rating of 86 percent.
Lou Williams has not been nearly as good as his teammates of late, but his salary has plummeted to $7,200 on FanDuel. He has averaged 1.07 FanDuel points per minute this season and is projected for 36.3 minutes on today’s slate, so he could be an intriguing buy-low option.
Good luck!
News Updates
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